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Tuesday, September 30, 2008

30 Sept 2008

Is 7% losses on 29 Sept 08 the Largest in DOW?

The losses of about 7% on 29 Sept 2008 is not the largest in DOW's history. The following table will show that there are about 18 times that DOW lose more 7% or more. The last time was in 17 Sept 2001 when DOW lose 7.13%, after the terrorist attack on 11 Sept 2001. Google showed that DOW had done 368 mil which is 150% of the average volume of 240 mil. on 29 Sept 2008.


As for the gains, there are about 19 times that DOW has gained more than 7% as shown in the following table. The last gain of larger size was in 21 Oct 87. That time DOW gained a hefty 10%.






Sunday, September 28, 2008

27 Sept 2008

Documentary Film of The Stock Market Crash in 1929

The full video come in 5 parts, each about 4 minutes. Click the button to view the various parts. To return to this page after viewing, click "Back" button




If you are in a hurry and prefer a condensed version that contains only the documentary, click here to play (8 minutes)

Friday, September 26, 2008

26 Sept 2008

Interesting videos about the WallStreet Bailouts...

Video 1: Bush Sounds the Alarm



Video 2: THEY WANT MAMA



Video 3: Let's Play "WALLSTREET BAILOUT"

Thursday, September 25, 2008

26 Sept 2008

This is an interesting video that attempts to talk about how money was created and manipulated in the history of United States.
It is an old documentary made before 1996; but many points raised in the video are quite relevant in today's context.

Note that this video is about 3 hours long and the information contained therein have not been verified but it is entertaining. The video pointed out that it was meant only for educational purpose so that people would be aware of how US money was created and manipulated.

For those who just wanted to know about:

a) the Crash in October 1929 that was described in the video (about 5 minutes);
b) the Federal Reserve Board of United State is a quasi government organisation. It was said that Goldman Sac and Lehman Brothers are two of the stockholders. (10 minutes);
c) the Market Crash is not the Cause of a Recession (1.5 minutes)

Follow this link

Monday, September 22, 2008

Short Clip of Money Maker

This short clips are part of the film "Money Maker" widely circulated in the Net for public viewing. The audience are advised to check the facts and verify themselves before taking any further action.

Video 1: Federal Reserve Board, a quasi government organisation (10 minutes)

It was said that Goldman Sac and Lehman Brothers are two of the stockholders.


Video 2: The Crash in October 1929 (about 5 minutes)



Video 3: Market Crash Not the Cause of a Recession (1.5 minutes)

Saturday, September 20, 2008

20 Sept 2008
Introduction
When investment giant, Lehman Brothers, filed for bankruptcy, some local investors received calls from DBS Bank, warning them that their investment in the DBS High Notes 5 may be at risk and the investors may only get a portion of their investment back or none at all. Some had invested S$50,000 while other had invested much more.

What is DBS High Notes ?
DBS High Notes are structured “first-to-default” credit linked notes, linked to a basket of stocks traded in SGX or NYSE or other World markets. The companies of these stocks usually have a minimum credit rating of A+ by Standard and Poor. It is designed for investors who are mostly clients of DBS's priority banking unit. It is an alternative means for these investors to participate in stock market investment. DBS has more than 150 different types of structured investment as indicated in their Website

What is DBS High Notes 5?
DBS High Notes 5 is a 5-1/2 year structured product linked to eight underlying stocks that includes:-

a) Goldman Sachs;
b) Morgan Stanley;
c) Merrill Lynch;
d) Macquarie Bank and
e) Lehman Brothers.

DBS High Notes 5 was issued in 2007 and the maturity date is 16 Nov 2012. It is based on Singapore Dollars.

How Do They Payout?DBS will invest on behalf of the investors and pay interests to the investors at a rate of 3.5% - 5% per annum depending on the contract. In the case of High Notes 5, 5% per annum. The interest payment will stop when DBS redeems the Notes or when a Credit Event occurs. Normally, investors will receive 100% of their principal amount at final maturity;

but when there is a Credit event, the Notes will terminate automatically and the investors will receive only the Credit Event Redemption Amount(CERA).



What is a Credit Event?
The occurrence of any one of the following events to any stock in the basket as determined by DBS Bank Ltd, as a Calculation Agent for the Notes:-

(a) Bankruptcy
(b) Failure to Pay
(c) Restructuring

According to the contract, the Calculation Agent has the sole and absolute discretion as to when and whether to declare a Credit Event in respect of the Notes

How Do They Work Out the Credit Event Redemption Amount (CERA)?
The amount will be calculated based on the following formula:

(Principal Amount x Final Price) - Unwind Costs


What is Final Price ?
The Final Price is the price of the stocks in the basket expressed as a percentage determined by the Calculation Agent; most probably, worked out based on the current stock price

What is Unwind Costs?
The loss incurred by DBS, as determined by the Calculation Agent, for terminating, liquidating, obtaining or re-establishing any swap agreement, foreign exchange transaction, financing arrangement, investment or other financial transaction entered into by or on behalf of DBS in relation to the issuance of the Notes.

What will be the CERA for High Notes 5 ?
To be worked out. According to Straits Times report on 20 September, High Notes 5 investors may get back some money by Credit Event Redemption Date, which is not later than 37 payment Days after the determination of the Final Price (the Valuation Date).


Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on price of any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movment of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.

Friday, September 19, 2008



19 Sept 2008

Is Today's Gain the Highest in History?
Today's gain of about 6% is not the highest in STI history. The highest gain was recorded to be about 14% in 1998 when we have IMF and Asian Crisis. In 1998, we have about 8 days when market gained more than 5%. Then, STI fell 1,300 points from 2,240 on 17 Jan 96 to 827 on 4 Sept 98, roughly about 60% over a 2 1/2 year period.


(Double click for enlarged table)



As for the losses, we have a record loss of about 10% on a black Monday in 1989. Record losses were also found in the 1997/98 crisis, when we have volatile trade with single day drop of more than 7% in 4 occasions. Note that we have the very first one of about 9% in this bear market. There may be more to come.



(Double click for enlarged table)


Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on price of any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movment of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.


Thursday, September 11, 2008



5 Sept 2008

Bear Flag in Our Backyard

Did anyone notice that we have a bear flag in our backyard ?

The attached chart shows that the flag pole of the bear flag pattern started to form sometime in 29 Oct 07; it was completed on 21 Nov 07. The length of the flag pole was about 515 points. The bear flag took the STI up 300 points from 3,300 on 21 Nov 07 to 3,600 on 11 Dec 07.


(click to enlarge for viewing)
According to the description of bear flag pattern, the target point shall be the length to the flag pole, measuring from the bottom of the flag. This target point is 2,790 which was exactly where STI had landed on 17 March 08. It rebounded to 3,200 for a total gain of about 400 points before heading south again. Since then, 2 wedges have been formed and both were broken.

By the look of the sharper fall being developed recently, STI may be going to create another bear flag pattern on its way.

Bear flag in Weekly Chart

To filter out the noises, it would be interesting to see how the chart will look like in a weekly chart.



(click to enlarge for viewing)
As shown, the weekly chart also forms interesting bear flag pattern except that the daily chart’s bear flag has now disappeared. What was shown is another bear flag pattern that had the pole top formed since 12 October 2007 @ 3,870. The bottom of the pole was completed on 20 March 2008 @ 2,825. The total length of the flag pole is about 1050. The flag took STI to a high of 3,250 on 9 May 2008.
Again, if the traders had their ways and the bear market shall continue for a few years, the target of STI could be 1,800, which is about 1050 (the length of the flag pole) away from the bottom of the flag pole.
Take note that 1,800 is a very strong support and it is also around 0.618 of the Fibonacci retracement level.

Other related sites
http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/bearflag.htm

Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on price of any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movment of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.

Thursday, September 4, 2008


4 Sept 2008

Why STI Was Falling More than HSI, Shanghai and other Indexes?MAS announced various economy data yesterday; some of which are important such as CPI and PPI figures; but, these figures were ignored in the past and why so different today? DOW closed positive at 0.14% during the night, Nikkei closed down 1%, HSI closed down 0.95% and Shanghai closed flat but look at STI, closed down 3%. All these while, STI has been tracking the movement of DOW, HSI and Shanghai indexes from a distance; for example, when HSI dipped 2%, STI dipped only 1%.

There is no obvious reason except for the possibility that the traders are waiting for some bad news to come because they were cautiously optimistic during the past trading days, cumulating some gains. Today is the right moment; poor economy data plus a Head and Shoulder pattern shown in the attached chart.

Notice that STI broke one of the neckline of the Head and Shoulder pattern on 7 August and the market responded with an increased volume of trade and today, it just repeated the same.

If the STI traders had a choice, they would set a new low target for STI. It is often said that whenever a neck line of a head and shoulder pattern is broken, stock price would further dip from the break point by the same price amount measured from the tip of the head to the neckline. This new low target happened to be 1,600. This target might become a reality if this bear market were allowed to be continued for a number of years.





(Doubleclick for enlarged view)
Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on price of any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movment of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.

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