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Thursday, June 17, 2021
Many People Died After Vaccination
Europe Cup 2021
Sunday, July 11 (EST) (Final); Monday, July 12 (HKT)
England vs Italy | July 11, 3 pm EST |
July 12, 3 am HKT |
Wednesday, June 16, 2021
To Be or Not To Be VAXXed (Part 1)
16 June 2021
Vaccine is Safe and Effective
20 Times Higher Chance?
Using the above formula, one could easily work backward to find out the relationship between ARU & ARV, the attack rates of unvaccinated and vaccinated respectively Assuming the vaccine efficacy or VE is 95%, the ARU will be "1/(1-VE)" times of ARV or simple "1/0.05" of ARV or 20 times of ARV. In simple words, the attack rate of those unvaccinated will be 20 times higher than the attack rate of those vaccinated. Even if we were to assume the efficacy is 50%, the unvaccinated would still have 2 times the chance of getting infected.
What about the Serious Adverse Effects & Death?
What are the odds of Hospitalization and Death?
The Economist has a model about estimating the odds of hospitalisation and death (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covid-19-model-estimates-odds-of-hospitalisation-and-death)
How the Odds Compared?
Pfizer (Double Dose) | Moderna (Double Dose) | Johnson (Single Dose) | Averages | Attack Rates Include(J&J) | ||||
BNT162b2 | mRNA-1273 | Ad26.COV2.S | % | X | ||||
Sample size | 43,000 | 30,420 | 44,325 | |||||
Vaccinated | 21,720 | 15,210 | 19,630 | III | 18,853 | |||
Placebo | 21,280 | 15,210 | 19,691 | IV | 18,727 | |||
Efficacy | 95% | 94.10% | 66.9% | |||||
Serious adverse after vaccination | 4 | 91 | 83 | |||||
Vaccinated Group | ||||||||
Infected | 9 | 11 | 116 | V | 45 | V/III | 0.24% | |
Serious Adverse Events | 130 | 91 | 83 | |||||
Estimated from (I) | Estimated from (I) | |||||||
Death | 2 | 2 | 3 | VI | 2 | VII/III | 0.012% | |
Serious Adverse Events (I) | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.40% | 0.53% | ||||
Death Rate | 0.009% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.013% | ||||
Platebo Group | ||||||||
Infected | 169 | 185 | 348 | VII | 234 | VII/IV | 1.250% | 5.20 |
Serious Adverse Events | 106 | 91 | 96 | |||||
Estimated from (II) | Estimated from (II) | |||||||
Death | 4 | 3 | 16 | VIII | 7.67 | VIII/IV | 0.04% | 3.31 |
Serious Adverse Events (II) | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.40% | 0.50% | ||||
Death Rate | 0.019% | 0.02% | 0.08% | 0.040% | ||||
What will happen after the Covid Recovery
Part 2 is an update that talk about the new variant, Delta, affecting the odds of getting the Covid infection.
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