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Thursday, June 17, 2021

Many People Died After Vaccination

17 June 2021


This is usually the key messages of those people who do not like vaccine. They claimed medics said vaccine is ineffective and people get killed by vaccines. They also claimed that the Governments were trying to cover up the truth about the death caused by vaccination. This article does not intend to argue who is right or wrong or whether there is death report covering up. It intends to find out if the vaccine is doing us any good to justify the use of the vaccine even if the rumour-mongerings were true.

What's Evidences We Have?


The real World Data charts from Our-World-in-Data. Three Charts in particular:

1. The 1st dose vaccine take-up rate in % of population
2. The infection rate in per million population
3. The death rate in per million population;

The rates are used instead of absolute number for ease of comparison.
These 3 charts are arranged next to each other as shown (Note: These 3 charts are interactive charts. One can change and add countries to get the desired results. Click remove side bar for larger view plus many other charts)




What the 3 Charts are Telling Us?


It simply tells us about what happened before and after the vaccine were use from Dec 2020. These countries were used because they are attacked most by the Delta or the Indian variants. Delta are known to be more vicious and infectious than other variants. According to GISAID, these countries accounted for more than 90% of the Delta attacks as recorded on 17 June 2021
https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/
One could readily deduce from the 3 charts that vaccine has managed to tame Covid-19. We will let time tell us how effective is the Covid-19 vaccine and if it will completely eradicate the virus.


How Many People Avoided Death & Suffering?

For a better comparison, let use the period from December 20, 2020. This is when we started the vaccination exercise in the United States. Then we see the death and infection rate peaking around January 11, 2021. We can download the data from Our World in Data to form the following table. From the table, we can see that the death avoidance is estimated to be 27,000. As for the infection, it is 1.5 million people avoided.

It can be readily deduced that vaccine is very helpful in Covid-19 infection and death avoidance. Of course, some of these people might have been saved by the tightened control measures but it is believed that vaccine did most of the work.


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Europe Cup 2021


 Sunday, July 11 (EST) (Final); Monday, July 12 (HKT)

England vs Italy
July 11, 3 pm EST
July 12, 3 am HKT



Note I: 
1.  Ignore any pop-up Advertisement when video or sound button clicked. Just close the pop-up screen & return to view the video.   
2.  Video is in FHD.  If PC/mobile  unable to play, try other players or use Alternate Site.    

     [Alternate Site to Watch all games] 
Note:  Alternate Site needs to click "I accept" at bottom on first startup
  

Watch 22 minutes of England vs Italy computer simulated  match  while waiting for the game to start tonight

 



Game Highlights & Replay

Note:  some may be simulated. Click dropdown box to select the videos







Europe Cup  Schedule, Score Board and fixtures 

Click dropdown box to select the information to view


https://tinyurl.com/ecm54vct

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

To Be or Not To Be VAXXed (Part 1)

16 June 2021

Many people can't make up their mind.   There are too many horror stories told about the Covid vaccines. Stories about how people died after getting vaccinated. Stories about long term effects. There are just no good answers. Many choose to wait at the side line.  This article will try to help. It will analyse and compare the odds of getting vaccinated and not vaccinated. Hopefully,  it will help someone.


Vaccine is Safe and Effective

This slogan has been used all the time. It really makes no difference.  No one can be 100% sure there is no long term ill effect.  There are also the serious adverse effects requiring hospitalization & even death. But if one knows one might have 20 times higher chance of getting infected, what would one think?   


20 Times Higher Chance?

To work this out,  one must refer to this formula often used to work out the vaccine efficacy


Using the above formula,  one could easily work backward to find out the relationship between ARU & ARV, the attack rates of unvaccinated and vaccinated respectively  Assuming  the vaccine efficacy or VE is 95%,  the ARU will be "1/(1-VE)"  times of ARV or simple "1/0.05" of ARV or  20 times of  ARV.  In simple words,  the attack rate of those unvaccinated will be 20 times higher than the attack rate of those vaccinated.  Even if we were to assume the efficacy is 50%,  the unvaccinated would still have 2 times the chance of getting infected.


What about the Serious Adverse Effects & Death?

It is true that there are people having serious adverse effect such as swelling,  high fever.  Some have to stay in ICU after taking the vaccines.   Some died.   The Authorities and manufacturers will never admit the deaths has anything to do with the vaccine.  

Let's not talk about whether the claims are true.  Let talk what if one gets infected.  What are the chance of one would get hospitalized or one would end up death?


What are the odds of Hospitalization and Death?


As for the death,  the medics said young people has an odd of about 0.031% and  more than 7.8% for people over 80.

They also said,  people in their 50s made up the biggest age demographic among hospitalized patients, with 222 out of 790 hospitalized cases being aged 50 to 59.


The Economist has this interesting interactive chart showing the risk % of male and female for various age group (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator)


 

The Economist has a model about estimating the odds of hospitalisation and death (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covid-19-model-estimates-odds-of-hospitalisation-and-death)


How the Odds Compared?

Every COVID-19 vaccine must undergo 3 stages of  clinical trials under controlled  condition to ensure accurate measurement.   The trials are required by World Health Organization (WHO) and/or any country before they approve the vaccine for emergency use.   The sample size must be more than 30,000 in the Phase 3 trial.   

In these trial reports,   the various safety and vaccine performance are recorded,  determined & evaluated.    The vital information about some vaccine brands are tabulated as shown


Pfizer

(Double Dose)

Moderna

(Double Dose)

Johnson

(Single Dose)

Averages

Attack Rates

Include(J&J)

BNT162b2

mRNA-1273

Ad26.COV2.S


%

X

Sample size

43,000

30,420

44,325




Vaccinated

21,720

15,210

19,630

III

18,853


Placebo

21,280

15,210

19,691

IV

18,727


Efficacy

95%

94.10%

66.9%



Serious adverse after vaccination

4

91

83



Vaccinated Group





Infected

9

11

116

V

45

V/III

0.24%


Serious Adverse

Events

130

91

83



Estimated

from (I)

Estimated

from (I)

Death

2

2

3

VI

2

VII/III

0.012%


Serious Adverse Events (I)

0.60%

0.60%

0.40%


0.53%



Death Rate

0.009%

0.01%

0.02%


0.013%



Platebo Group




Infected

169

185

348

VII

234

VII/IV

1.250%

5.20

Serious Adverse Events

106

91

96





Estimated

from (II)

Estimated

from (II)




Death

4

3

16

VIII

7.67

VIII/IV

0.04%

3.31

Serious Adverse Events (II)

0.50%

0.60%

0.40%


0.50%



Death Rate

0.019%

0.02%

0.08%


0.040%




LINK

LINK

LINK





Links for Pfizer Trial Report:  https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577
Links for Moderna Trial Report:  https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2035389
Links for J&J Trial Report:  https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2101544?listPDF=true

One can see that in the vaccinated cases,  Those having Serious Adverse Events requiring hospitalization is only 0.53% in average among the 3 vaccines and those deaths accounted for only about 0.013% average. Those for Platebo cases where saline water was used instead  of vaccines,  the infection & death cases are slightly higher.  Of course,  the vaccine manufacturers claimed those deaths got nothing to do with the vaccines.

Now if we were to consider that the unvaccinated have higher chance of catching Covid and assumed that the Vaccine efficacy is only 53% (or 2.1 times ARV),  we could see that the odds of unvaccinated has increased by nearly 30% straightaway.  The males with age 80 and over will have over 60% chance of landing in a hospital bed and 25% chance of meeting a death.  The female will have 44% & 15% respectively. 



What will happen after the Covid Recovery

One in 10 recovered Covid-19 patients had persistent symptoms six months after their initial infection, a study led by the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID) has found.


Part 2 is an update that talk about the new variant,  Delta,  affecting the odds of getting the Covid infection.






   





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