Common Network Problem - Limited Connectivity

15 April 2009

IntroductionEvery now and then, one would receive error message in the task bar saying one's network has limited connectivity or no connectivity. Very often, fixing the known bug in SP2 and clearing and resetting the TCP/IP stack etc just do not work. Then it may be worth the while to fix it by resetting the modem and also, re-installing the network drivers.



What could have happened?
Devices such as network controller are often assigned an Interrupt Request(IRQ) by the system during start-up. Because there are limited numbers of IRQ, many devices would have to share the same IRQ. Most computers nowadays are ACPI compliance. The ACPI will assign these IRQs during start up according to its default settings. It may cause competitive use of the IRQs and corrupt device drivers. If that being the case, the only fix is to re-install the driver. It is necessary also to resolve the IRQ conflicts to fix the problem permanently.



How to Confirm the Problem is not caused by ISP ?It is always good to check the connection using another PC or noteb0ok just to confirm that the problem is related to the computer.
It is also good to take the opportunity to reset the modem to ensure that it has been reloaded to default setting or the manufacturer's setting. To reset the modem, one often need only to turn-off the modem, wait a few seconds and re-connect the modem again.


How to Re-install the Network Driver?
1) Bing up the device manager
Click start, then run. In the dropdown box, enter "devmgmt.msc" (without quote). One could also start up Device Manager using the Control Panel. The following Device Manager screen should appear.


Look for the "Network Adaptor", expand it and then double click the network device to bring up property screen. When in the property screen, select the driver tab and click the "Uninstall" button to remove the network driver.
2) Re-start the computer.
If the network driver is still in the window system folder, the computer will find it and prompt user to re-install the network driver during start-up. However, in case the computer cannot find the driver or the driver in the window system has been corrupted, one would have to re-install the driver using the motherboard disk that come with the computer.

COPPOCK Indicator: When to Enter or Leave the Market

13 April 2009

What is COPPOCK indicator?

The Coppock curve or Coppock indicator is a technical analysis indicator created by Edwin Coppock, first published in Barron's Magazine in 1962.
Edwin Coppock developed the Coppock Indicator with one sole purpose: to identify the commencement of bull markets. The indicator was devised for use on S&P 500 but is suitable for use on other market indices or averages.

How COPPOCK Indicator is Calculated?

The indicator uses a monthly time scale. It's the sum of a 14-month rate of change and 11-month rate of change, smoothed by a 10-period weighted moving average;

In formula:
COPPOCK= WMA[10] of (ROC(14)+ROC(11))

and in words:
1. Calculate the 14 month Rate of Change (of Monthly Price) for the index.
2. Calculate the 11 month Rate of Change (of Monthly Price) for the index. 3. Add the results of 1 and 2.
4. Calculate the 10 month weighted average of the results

Where Can I Find This Indicator For STI and DOW?

There is no known source that can give updates for COPPOCK indicator on STI and DOW. However, it is not too difficult to build this indicator in the metastock or similar kind of software using the following formula:

Mov((ROC(C,14,%)+ROC(C,11,%)),10,W)/100 (shown red in attached charts)

Another formula to express COPPOCK in smoothened mode

(Mov(ROC(Mov(C,14,S),11,%),10,E))/100 (shown blue in attached charts)

Interpretation of COPPOCK Curve

When the indicator was published in Barron’s (1962), it was suggested one should enter the market only when Coppock Curve started to reverse from an extreme low.
However, one will notice that market will reverse its trend whenever COPPOCK curve reverses from its extreme low or extreme high.
Other observations are:
a) The first COPPOCK reversal from extreme low is often followed by the highest COPPOCK reading (highest momentum); subsequent ones are usually followed by lower peak COPPOCK readings, indicating weakening or aging market.
b) The market will rise when the COPPOCK crosses above the COPPOCK smoothen curve; otherwise, the market will fall.

Best Time To Enter the Market?

According to the original interpretation, the best time to enter the market is when the COPPOCK curve (red) reverses from its extreme low. The DOW's COPPOCK curve is now suggesting that it is still not the right time to enter the market.

As for STI, the picture is about the same.

However, it is suggested that one should not just rely on one or two indicators to decide when to buy, sell, enter or leave the market. COPPOCK indicator may have given the correct signals so far but that does not always mean that COPPOCK curve will be able to give a precise timing.

Application of COPPOCK in Other Charts

COPPOCK suggested to use monthly charts for his COPPOCK curve. Many Analysts have attempted to use it for charts of different time scales such as weekly time frame.

UPDATED :  14 April 2009 & 15 April 2009

If one were to study the above DOW's weekly COPPOCK curve carefully, one could find that DOW will always rise when the red curve (COPPOCK) cross above the blue curve (the smoothened curve); similarly, the market will always fall when it crosses under.    The above chart shows clearly that the COPPOCK has a signal to enter the market on 21 Nov 08 (red curve about to cross blue cure);  however,  this did not happen and the market continued its fall until March 09.  

Update :  1 August 2018
If one has faithfully followed the coppock curve to invest in stock market,  one could reap a lot of profit by now.   For long term investors,  it will be simple just to use monthly chart to decide when to enter and when to leave the market as illustrated in the following chart

The above chart indicated that it is definitely not the right time for long term investors who have reaped all the earlier profit to give up and empty all  their holdings  without first checking the coppock curve in the weekly chart and also consulting other technical indicators.   However,  one would not expect the  stock market price to gain much i.e. not until coppock curve begins to turn up and move in the opposite direction.

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Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movement of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.