Why do We Need to Be Concern about Some Vaccine Effectiveness Studies (Part 2) ?

In Part 1,  we found that those studies done using real World Data are actually not measuring the vaccine effectiveness but a combination of vaccine and the other Covid-19 control measures.   These other control measures are shutdowns & isolation,  mask-wearing, etc.    This Part 2 will suggest a way where we can use to monitor how effective are these combined Covid-19 control measures.  We can term this "the effectiveness of the Covid-19 control measures". 

How?

By comparing the attack rates of Covid-19 against those data obtained from the vaccine efficacy trial results or an acceptable level or limit.

What data?

From the vaccine efficacy trial results for the 3 vaccines,  namely,  Pfizer, Moderna & Johnson & Johnson,   we can obtain the following data:

a)  The average attack rate for the vaccine group was 0.24% and for the placebo group,  1.25%.  The standard efficacy formula is as follows

b)  Using the same standard formula,  we can plot out a chart showing the attack rates of the vaccine group against vaccine efficacy as shown in the following chart

Chart 1:  Attack rates of Vaccinated Group at various Vaccine Efficacies

Comparing the Attack Rates

Using the attack rates at various vaccine efficacies,  we can draw up a chart showing how effective is the Covid control measures as compared to the vaccine efficacies shown in Chart 1.  This is Chart 2 which plotted  "the Attack Rates by Vaccination Status".  This chart uses Singapore MOH's Real World Data

Doubleclick picture for latest updates

Interpretation?

1. Chart 2 illustrated that Singapore has good control over Covid-19 infection at present. It uses a combination of the following measures:

a) Vaccination: To date, 80% of the 5.9 million residents have received full-dose and 85% of them have at least 1-dose;

 b) Mask wearing & social safety distancing for all residents are compulsory for all indoor as well as outdoor activities;

 c) All social, religious gatherings and sporting events are controlled by having a cap on the maximum number of attendees as well as other controls;

         d) Business events and other events are curtailed;

e) Other measures are as shown here

2. The above control measures in Singapore are showing to have a Covid attack rate even better than the 95% vaccine efficacy;

3. The remaining 15% of the unvaccinated residents in Singapore have exercised good control measures to prevent themselves from getting infected. As many as 60,000 Singaporeans have already been infected before Singapore rolled out its vaccination program in Feb 2021. They would have the natural immunization without acquiring vaccines. Many could have been infected without noticing it because they were asymptomatic. The unvaccinated residents in Singapore have better attack rates at the present moment.

4. We can use this method to monitor how effective are our control measures and what would happen if we relax any of the control measures.

Conclusion

1. We could monitor the effectiveness of the control measures implemented in various countries by comparing the Covid-19 attack rates of the residents against those of the Vaccine Trial Tests;

2. The real World Data cannot be used to measure the vaccine effectiveness unless one can discount the effect due to all the biases and other Covid-19 control measures that will affect vaccine effectiveness calculation;

3. The standard formula cannot be used when more people in the population have been vaccinated.

The charts and table as shown will be updated daily and presented on this webpage.

Coronavirus Vaccination Status in Hong Kong

17 May 2021

Notices

The data and graph from SCMP are readable again from 22 November onwards.   The other Graphs have been updated

Hong Kong Government has been publishing data about the number of people taking Sinovac and BioNTech coronavirus vaccines.   The data has been collated and plotted by South China Morning Post (SCMP) of Hong Kong and a copy of which is mimicked here for the convenient of the readers

Courtesy: SCMP

The data has also been analyzed and graphically plotted as shown in the following which is self-explanatory

2)  Total Number of Covid-19 Doses in Hong Kong

3)  Daily 1st Covid-19 Doses in Hong Kong

4)   Daily Covid-19 Doses in Hong Kong

5)  Cummulative 1st Covid-19 Doses in Hong Kong

6)  1st Dose growth against average in Hong Kong 

The pick-up rate of the 1st dose takers was fast in the first month after the roll out. Hong Kong rolled out a vaccination plan at the end of Feb 2021.  The growth was later boosted by introducing BioNTech in early March.  But this growth rate had a setback and dropped to -70% against the average at the end of March. This was because BioNTech was suspended for 10 days for a packaging problem. The growth pick up steam from 4th April. By mid-April, it grew to 88% against the average. Growth slowly declined thereafter to the present -39%  on 19 May.

 

7)  % Population with at least 1 Dose & with Full Doses

For more other details,  please refer to this other webpage:  

The Comparison of Real World Covid Charts

Hong Kong Vaccination Data Download in CSV file

     

https://tinyurl.com/h5j7zb9e

The Updates From the Ministry of Health (MOH) of Singapore

8 September 2021

12 September 2021 Update:   MOH has stopped publishing details about infection and death rate according to vaccination status.  This page will not be updated.

Singapore's Ministry of Health (MOH) has recently changed its reporting format.   It now concentrates on reporting how well the vaccinated and unvaccinated Singapore residents have performed when they have been infected.    The idea is to encourage more residents to take vaccines.  It paid special attention to those elderly aged residents who are most vulnerable to be infected.

This article is using these MOH's real World data and transforms some of them to show the vaccine effectiveness used in Singapore as an example.  The information has been used on this webpage.   

Note:  The information in this article will be updated daily until further notice.  

Chart 1: % of Population vaccinated with 1 dose and full 2 doses

This chart shows the vaccination status of Singapore residents over the period specified. It can be used to roughly estimate the vaccine effectiveness by assuming entire Singapore as one community

Chart 2: Infection According to Vaccination Status

This chart shows the number of infections according to Vaccination Status as shown in MOH Figure 3: Local Cases in the Last 28 Days by Vaccination Status & Severity of Condition

Chart 3: The Virus Attack Rates by Vaccination Status (Infection)

This chart shows the attack rates of vaccinated and the unvaccinated of those infected. The data is extracted from the same source as Chart 2. The attack rate is explained in this wiki.

TTSH Breakout on 28 April 2021

Bukit Merah Breakout on 13 June 2021

KTV Breakout on 13 July 2021

Fishery Market Breakout on 18 July 2021

Dormitory in Woodlands Breakout on 23 Aug 2021

Note The attack rate is for a 28-day interval as stated by MOH from 9 Sept 2021

Chart 4: Attack Rates of Severely ill (O2 +ICU)

This chart shows the attack rates of vaccinated and the unvaccinated, who are severely ill and required oxygen or ICU support. The data is extracted from Figure 3: Local Cases in the Last 28 Days by Vaccination Status & Severity of Condition. The attack rate is explained in this wiki

Note 1:  6.00E-5 in vertical scale=0.006%

Note 2: The attack rate is for a 28-day interval as stated by MOH

Chart 5: The Attack Rates of Death

This chart shows the attack rates of vaccinated and the unvaccinated who have left the World. The data is extracted from Figure 3: Local Cases in the Last 28 Days by Vaccination Status & Severity of Condition. The attack rate is explained in this wiki

Note 1:  6.00E-6 in vertical scale=0.0006%

Note 2: The attack rate is for a 28-day interval as stated by MOH

Note 3:  No Death so far 1 dose; one Fully dosed 90-year-old died on 17 August

The MOH Real-World Data in CSV file