Will History Repeat Itself?

19 June 2010

Introduction
Many used to say that history will repeat itself in the stock markets; what has happened will happen again. Therefore, Technical Analysis Technicians have come out with many shapes, patterns, trendlines and formations to predict the futures of a stock or currency market. This article will examine the DOW index from a technical prospective and check if it is possible for DOW to repeat itself.

What will be used?
Trendlines. There are many different types of trendline; some are called necklines, others are just simple trendlines. Necklines are usually found when there is a “head and shoulder” formation. Once a neckline or trendline is broken, there will be large movements in prices.

The Occasions
There are 2 occasions recently when DOW broke necklines or trendlines and sent stocks plunging. One was in January 2010 due to debt crisis in Dubai; the other was in May 2010 when debts in Greece shocked the markets.

In both occasions, the necklines were broken. The Dubai incident was soon forgotten. Will they forget the Greece incident?

The Technical Analysis
The Dubai and the Greece incidents are shown in the following chart marked wave 3-4 and wave 5-1 respectively.

a) The similarities1) A “dead cross” when the 20-day MA crossed under the 50-day MA.
2) A broken neckline.
3) At the point where index regained and touched the neckline (As shown in blue vertical line)
a. The stochastic was oversold and just about to cross under its own moving average
b. The Bollinger bands had just contracted
c. The 20-day MA had just flattened with the 50-day MA reducing its decline

b) The differences
1) The Greece’s 20-day MA moved further down from the 50-day MA
2) DOW and its 20-day MA in the Greece incident crossed below the 200-day MA
3) The Greece’s depth of fall from its neckline did not satisfy the conditions of the “head and shoulder”. The depth of fall must be equal or more than the height of “head” measured from the base of the neckline.

(Double click for larger image)

Will DOW Break the Neckline This Time?Similar pattern and lots of similarities occurred in Nov/Dec 2007 when the credit crisis caused a plunge in the markets. For example, DOW broke a trendline sending index plunging below the 200-day MA and regained to touch the trendline. This pattern is more similar to the Greece incident.

The analysis suggests that DOW is more likely to reflect from its neckline than to break the neckline.

(Double click for larger image)

When Will DOW Makes the Decision?

The candlestick chart shows that DOW has made 3 spinning tops in the last 3 sessions. The appearance of a spinning top candlestick always signify that there is indecision in the market. The following chart suggested that DOW would be making a decision pretty soon if history is repeating itself.

(Double click for larger image)

What to Do Next?
If one is long, it would be prudent to “buy insurance” by hedging or other similar methods. It is recommended to stay away from the markets until DOW’s 20-day MA crosses over the 50-day MA. Even then, it is good to check if the neckline has been broken.

Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movement of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.

How To Replace Hard Drive in Laptops

28 March 2010

Introduction

Have a faulty hard drive? Want to replace it? This article will how to replace the hard drive in Fujitec S7110 laptop that has a SATA drive.

What is SATA drive?

SATA is a interface standard that allows connection between the hard drive and the motherboard's hard drive controller. SATA stands for Serial Advanced Technology Attachment or Serial-ATA.

What’s needed?

a) A small Philip screw driver; and for those who need to modify or clone the old hard drive;
b) A workable desktop with a spare SATA connection;

1. For those who need to convert the SATA hard drive using software, such as Hitachi or IBM drives;
2. For those who needs to clone the hard drive – will need a software such as Acronis True Image or Partition Magic or equivalent

Degree of Difficulty

a) Just to replace the hard drive - Easy
b) To modify or clone the hard drive - Need to read up the software instruction sheet.

Why Need to Convert Hard Drive?

Newer hard drive most likely comes with SATA II or SATA III hard drive interface that enable faster transfer speed. Unfortunately, laptop of more than 3 years old have SATA I standard interface and it may not be able to detect or recognize the newer interface.

How to Convert the Hard Drive

If the hard drive comes with extra jumpers, it would be as easy as reconfiguring of this jumper to convert the hard drive to SATA I interface. However, when you have Hitachi or IBM hard drive that does not come with the extra jumper, a conversion software will be required. In this case, follow the instructions given in the "Change SATA Settings" by the software. Select 1.5 Mb/sec and disable the "Spread Spectrum Clocking".

To Remove the Hard Drive
a) Remove the 2 screws securing the cover and slide the cover in the direction shown
b) Remove the 3 screws and remove the bracket that attach the hard drive to the laptop
c) Pull the plastic tag to the left to disengage the hard drive from the laptop.
d) Remove the hard drive pocket from the laptop and remove the hard drive. Pay particular attention to the contact blade.

To Re-install the Hard Drive
Reverse the step as described in the section “To remove the hard drive” stands for Serial-ATA

Web Query of Excel Hanged

4 January 2010

Introduction

We often use the Web Query function of Microsoft Excel to extract data such as stock quotes from various websites. Many a time, Excel just hang without reporting any error message. The only way to resolve the problem is to terminate the Microsoft Excel application program. This article presents a simple and effective way of resolving this problem.

What’s Required?

Some experiences in macro or VBA programming.

What Has Been Tried?

The Web offered many solutions to resolve this problem but none could work better; either because the solutions, such as introduction of scheduled (OnTime) procedure, do not work or they have complicated macros or VBAs that no one can understand. Error trappings using Error handling loops do not help either because the Website being queried was only down and not out.

What is the Solution?

Write a short macro to “ping” the website before initiating the web query command.

How?

a) Using the API function of VBA and putting a Public declaration in the top or heading of the macro or VBA.

Private Declare Function InternetCheckConnection Lib "wininet.dll" _
Alias "InternetCheckConnectionA" _
(ByVal lpszUrl As String, _
ByVal dwFlags As Long, _
ByVal dwReserved As Long) As Long

Private Const FLAG_ICC_FORCE_CONNECTION = &H1

b) Writing or using the recording function of Excel to create a macro for the Web Query and insert the following macro to the Web Query VBA

Sub downloading()
Dim sUrl As String
sUrl = “http://yahoo.com”
but = InternetCheckConnection(sUrl, FLAG_ICC_FORCE_CONNECTION, 0&)
If but Then
…initiate web queries
Else
… announce website is down
End If
End Sub

Quick Fix for IPOD error “Firewire Connection Not Supported

29 May 2009

Introduction
Many IPOD members had this to say: “I was getting this error and I tried all things without luck. I got another new iPod and within a month it started giving me this same error "Firewire Connection Not Suported...". Pressing the center button makes it go away for less than 1 second and it scrolls right back again. I can't select songs, turn it off, or anything! Nice paperweight right now. I am going to be one dissatisfied iPod owner “

What Happened?Dirty IPOD connector. Very often we neglect to look after the IPOD cables and its connectors. The cables are often left idling around and the connectors exposed to the air without any cover. They will accumulate dusts and this dusts will be transferred to the IPOD’s blades of connector. Over time and with enough moisture, these dusts will turn into dirts and cause a connection between the blades of connection. Somehow, the IPOD detects this as an attempt to connect the IPOD via the firewire.

Tools Requireda) WD 40
b) Tooth pick
b) Cotton wool

Method
1. Spray some WD 40 directly into the window of the connector as shown and wait for a few minutes;




2. Put some cotton wool and row it onto the tooth pick and make attempts to clean up the blades of the IPOD; repray some WD 40 into the window;
3. Reset the IPOD if needed be and the “Apple” screen should reappear without the error. If not, retry step 1 & 2.
4. Clean up the residual of WD 40.

Common Network Problem - Limited Connectivity

15 April 2009

IntroductionEvery now and then, one would receive error message in the task bar saying one's network has limited connectivity or no connectivity. Very often, fixing the known bug in SP2 and clearing and resetting the TCP/IP stack etc just do not work. Then it may be worth the while to fix it by resetting the modem and also, re-installing the network drivers.



What could have happened?
Devices such as network controller are often assigned an Interrupt Request(IRQ) by the system during start-up. Because there are limited numbers of IRQ, many devices would have to share the same IRQ. Most computers nowadays are ACPI compliance. The ACPI will assign these IRQs during start up according to its default settings. It may cause competitive use of the IRQs and corrupt device drivers. If that being the case, the only fix is to re-install the driver. It is necessary also to resolve the IRQ conflicts to fix the problem permanently.



How to Confirm the Problem is not caused by ISP ?It is always good to check the connection using another PC or noteb0ok just to confirm that the problem is related to the computer.
It is also good to take the opportunity to reset the modem to ensure that it has been reloaded to default setting or the manufacturer's setting. To reset the modem, one often need only to turn-off the modem, wait a few seconds and re-connect the modem again.


How to Re-install the Network Driver?
1) Bing up the device manager
Click start, then run. In the dropdown box, enter "devmgmt.msc" (without quote). One could also start up Device Manager using the Control Panel. The following Device Manager screen should appear.


Look for the "Network Adaptor", expand it and then double click the network device to bring up property screen. When in the property screen, select the driver tab and click the "Uninstall" button to remove the network driver.
2) Re-start the computer.
If the network driver is still in the window system folder, the computer will find it and prompt user to re-install the network driver during start-up. However, in case the computer cannot find the driver or the driver in the window system has been corrupted, one would have to re-install the driver using the motherboard disk that come with the computer.

COPPOCK Indicator: When to Enter or Leave the Market

13 April 2009

What is COPPOCK indicator?

The Coppock curve or Coppock indicator is a technical analysis indicator created by Edwin Coppock, first published in Barron's Magazine in 1962.
Edwin Coppock developed the Coppock Indicator with one sole purpose: to identify the commencement of bull markets. The indicator was devised for use on S&P 500 but is suitable for use on other market indices or averages.

How COPPOCK Indicator is Calculated?

The indicator uses a monthly time scale. It's the sum of a 14-month rate of change and 11-month rate of change, smoothed by a 10-period weighted moving average;

In formula:
COPPOCK= WMA[10] of (ROC(14)+ROC(11))

and in words:
1. Calculate the 14 month Rate of Change (of Monthly Price) for the index.
2. Calculate the 11 month Rate of Change (of Monthly Price) for the index. 3. Add the results of 1 and 2.
4. Calculate the 10 month weighted average of the results

Where Can I Find This Indicator For STI and DOW?

There is no known source that can give updates for COPPOCK indicator on STI and DOW. However, it is not too difficult to build this indicator in the metastock or similar kind of software using the following formula:

Mov((ROC(C,14,%)+ROC(C,11,%)),10,W)/100 (shown red in attached charts)

Another formula to express COPPOCK in smoothened mode

(Mov(ROC(Mov(C,14,S),11,%),10,E))/100 (shown blue in attached charts)

Interpretation of COPPOCK Curve

When the indicator was published in Barron’s (1962), it was suggested one should enter the market only when Coppock Curve started to reverse from an extreme low.
However, one will notice that market will reverse its trend whenever COPPOCK curve reverses from its extreme low or extreme high.
Other observations are:
a) The first COPPOCK reversal from extreme low is often followed by the highest COPPOCK reading (highest momentum); subsequent ones are usually followed by lower peak COPPOCK readings, indicating weakening or aging market.
b) The market will rise when the COPPOCK crosses above the COPPOCK smoothen curve; otherwise, the market will fall.

Best Time To Enter the Market?

According to the original interpretation, the best time to enter the market is when the COPPOCK curve (red) reverses from its extreme low. The DOW's COPPOCK curve is now suggesting that it is still not the right time to enter the market.

As for STI, the picture is about the same.

However, it is suggested that one should not just rely on one or two indicators to decide when to buy, sell, enter or leave the market. COPPOCK indicator may have given the correct signals so far but that does not always mean that COPPOCK curve will be able to give a precise timing.

Application of COPPOCK in Other Charts

COPPOCK suggested to use monthly charts for his COPPOCK curve. Many Analysts have attempted to use it for charts of different time scales such as weekly time frame.

UPDATED :  14 April 2009 & 15 April 2009

If one were to study the above DOW's weekly COPPOCK curve carefully, one could find that DOW will always rise when the red curve (COPPOCK) cross above the blue curve (the smoothened curve); similarly, the market will always fall when it crosses under.    The above chart shows clearly that the COPPOCK has a signal to enter the market on 21 Nov 08 (red curve about to cross blue cure);  however,  this did not happen and the market continued its fall until March 09.  

Update :  1 August 2018
If one has faithfully followed the coppock curve to invest in stock market,  one could reap a lot of profit by now.   For long term investors,  it will be simple just to use monthly chart to decide when to enter and when to leave the market as illustrated in the following chart

The above chart indicated that it is definitely not the right time for long term investors who have reaped all the earlier profit to give up and empty all  their holdings  without first checking the coppock curve in the weekly chart and also consulting other technical indicators.   However,  one would not expect the  stock market price to gain much i.e. not until coppock curve begins to turn up and move in the opposite direction.

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Other stock articles

Tinyurl : https://tinyurl.com/yat3mnkw 

Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movement of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.

DOW May be Trapped inside a Channel

24 January 2008

IntroductionAfter having broken the support of the bearish rising wedge, DOW continued to edge lower, hugging against the lower Bollinger Band. It was in dangerous and critical condition when DOW's ADX rose above 20, where tradings would become more and more volatile. However, DOW was able to resist the selling pressures thus far and rebounced at the end of the last few trading sessions with relatively higher trading volume. It may be because DOW has found another support in an Ascending Channel.

What is an Ascending Channel?
An ascending channel is a set of upward sloping parallel lines that restrict the price/index movement as shown in the attached. Price/index may not always be within the parallel channel lines that show the support and resistance for price/index targets. A breakout above the upper channel line can signal continuation of an upward movement whereas a breakout below the lower channel line can signal a trend change.

Abnormal BehaviourUsually when a stock or index hugs and expands the lower bollinger band with ADX above 20, the tradings will not only be volatile but also brutal with daily falls expected to be more than 1%. However, DOW's behaviour in the last few sessions was quite abnormal. Instead of going down sharply as it should be, DOW was building up its resistances, showing bullish long tailed candlesticks with trading volumes above the norms. Such behaviour usually suggest that a support has been found and this could be the trendline shown blue in the attached.

click for enlarged view

This blue line together with the former major resistance line shown red in attached could suggest that DOW could be trapped in an ascending channel.

How about STI and Hang Seng?The following charts suggest that STI and Hang Seng, which often track the movement of DOW, are showing similar resiliency and are trapped also in the ascending channel.

Trading StrategyIf one has no vested interest in stock or equity or index market, it will be good to wait for the confirmation that DOW is:

a) Not breaking the lower channel line;
b) rebouncing from this lower channel line with ADX changing its direction from going up to going down. For those who are vested and are preparing to ride through the "storm", it is good to watch that DOW will not break the final support @ 7,500 or to buy Put Warrants to hedge for the expected losses to be incurred.

1 Feb 2009 Update :
DOW rebounced but failed to break above the 20-day moving average. It is now sitting on a supporting trendline which was inadvertently shown as the lower channel line in the last posting. The updated chart will show that if this supporting trendline is broken, DOW may found support at the lower channel line. It will want to retest the low of 7,997 on 20 Nov 2008 when this lower channel line is broken.

It is quite likely that DOW would rebounce if the Obama's $825 bln stimulus package is passed by the Senate next week.

click for enlarged view

19 Feb 2009 Update:

The Obama stimulus package did not help to boost the market; instead, DOW broke away from the rising channel. It dipped 1.19% to a new low of 7,465 which is just below the November 2008's low of 7,552. It would appear that DOW had just formed another bearish flag, which would suggest 5,500 as the next target unless DOW could regain and reclaim its November 2008's low convincingly. DOW's present position is quite similar to the one in June 2008 as shown in the following graph.

click for enlarged view

18 April 2009DOW found itself trapped in another channel after Feb 2009 as shown in the attached weekly chart. This time a bullish declining channel. DOW appears to have a bullish look with the following observations:
a) It has just cleared the bullish declining channel;
b) It has recovered the last break of the "bear flag" line (as shown red in attached chart);
c) It has also cleared 20-week average and now is sitting above it;
DOW is believed to be heading for the resistance line, originated from Sept 2008; then, it will test the upper Bollinger line.
However, there are dangers signs around, signified by the falling 50 and 100 week averages. The 100-week average, which is about the cut under the 200-week average, appears to have a dangerous look.
The COPPOCK indicator suggested that the present market is still a trader's market and not a start of a bull market where long term investor can safely enter the market.
Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movement of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.

DOW in Dangerous But Not Critical Condition

15 January 2008

IntroductionLast night, DOW lose about 250 points or 3% and fell from 8,448 to about 8,200. DOW is now in dangerous but not in critical condition. This is because the ADX has just reversed its direction but stayed below 20.


What's ADX?ADX is a acronym for Directional Movement Index, which is another very important index in Technical Analysis. ADX will tell the direction in the movement of a stock or index. When ADX is moving down and suddenly reversing its direction to move up or vice versa, it signifies a directional change in the movement of stock or index. One would expect the stock/index to move up or down depending on the changes. If ADX moves above 20, it usually signifies an accelerated movement and when it it moves above 30, the acceleration will intensify.

The following Chart A will illustrate with red circle identifying the up movement and blue circle identifying the down movement.


Why Dangerous and Not Critical?Earlier on, DOW formed many shapes and patterns. It finally selected the bearish one which is the rising wedge pattern. It then broke the supporting trendline that has been restricting DOW's movement since November 2008. Subsequently, it broke the 20-day as well the 50-day supports and presently hugs the lower Bollinger band with ADX changing its direction as shown in attached Chart B. This put DOW in a very dangerous position. However, the Bollinger band has only been expanded slightly and ADX is below the 20 critical line with the 10-day Stochastic chart in oversold region, these indications suggested that DOW was not be in a critical condition.

Trading Strategy?If one has no vested interest in stock or equity or index market, it will be good to stay sideline until the situation has improved. For those with vested interest, it would be advisable to set targets for loss cutting or prepare to buy Put Warrants to hedge or compensate for the expected losses to be incurred should there be a serious downfall in stock market. Invariably, there will investors who would want to take the chance to short sell the market or go bargain hunting during this period.

Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movment of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.

DOW Has Formed Many Shapes and Patterns

2 January 2009

Introduction
DOW re-bounced from its low of 7,552 on 20 Nov 2008 to the present high of 9,034 on 2 Jan 2009. It has gained about 1,500 points or 20% over a period of slightly over 1 month. It has moved up against the odd of many bad economic news.

Where will it move from here?
According to Chinese Zodiac, the next Chinese New Year is an OX year. It was speculated that years of OX were never a good year for equity or stock market. This has proven to be true for year 1973, 1985 and 1997 when markets plunged during these dreadful years.

Will it be true also this year?
Charts are not able to tell much about the distant future. However, the chart of Elliot Wave indicates that DOW is presently forming the "ABC waves". The Elliot Wave chart suggested that DOW could have just completed forming its downward "A wave" and presently, it could be forming the "B wave" as shown in the attached monthly chart:


The above chart also shows that DOW tested the 200 MA support line recently. If this important support line is broken, then one would expect DOW to extend its wave A movement and seek lower lows.

Can the Charts Read the Near Future Movement?
The following charts will show that DOW is presently negotiating a re-bounce and is forming all sort of shapes and patterns. It gave conflicting signals about its near future movements.

Although most of the signals are positive ones, there is one worrying signal that indicates that DOW will continue its decline as shown in the attached chart:

doubleclick for enlarged view

The above chart shows that DOW has formed 4 different shapes and patterns. They are:
a) The bottom Head and Shoulder pattern (bullish);
b) The ascending triangle(bullish);
c) The symmetrical triangle(bullish);
d) The rising wedge(bearish).

It is good also to note that:
a) DOW had broken the resistances of some of these shapes and patterns;
b) Its 20-day MA was about to cross over the 50-day MA;
c) The trading volume was low when DOW broke the resistances.

Isn't That Bullish?
By popular count, one can say that DOW is bullish presently; however, the trading volumes were quite low when DOW broke the resistances plus there were many bad news, one could not conclude that DOW will continue its way up; on the contrary, DOW may just turn bearish and continue its way down.

How's STI Doing?
With the 68 point gained last Friday, STI has broken the symmetrical triangle that has restricted the STI's movement over the past 3 months; again, this significant event was not supported by very heavy trading volume. It could mean that the investors were still doubtful about the STI's future movement.

Trading Strategy
Unless there is a trading breakout supported by heavy trading volume in the next few sessions, it is likely that STI or DOW will remain range bounced with a sideway movement or may even dip from the presently level.

It is therefore wise to remain cautiously optimistic until the 20-day MA can cross over the 50-day MA convincingly or when there is a trading breakouts supported by heavier trading volume.

Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movment of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.

Monitoring Hard Disk Conditions

29 December 2008

Introduction
Very often, one faces the problem of computer failing to start up; sometimes, the computer just hanged and may even re-start itself before it reaches the usual welcoming start up screen. Besides a virus that can cause such problem, the harddisk's condition could just be another one of such causes.

Can We Prevent Harddisk Failure?
Harddisk failure is either caused by component failures due to electric surges or by damaged harddisk media due to normal fair wear and tear. The latter appears to be main cause of all problems. One of the many ways that we can prevent a harddisk failure is to monitor the harddisk's working condition, especially its operating temperature.

How to Monitor?One can download this S.M.A.R.T software free from here.

What is S.M.A.R.T?It stands for "Self-Monitoring, Analysis, and Reporting Technology", first introduced by IBM in 1992. S.M.A.R.T will monitor about 40 different attributes of the harddisk from read and seek errors to airflow temperature in and around the harddisk.

How useful?Among the many attributes monitored, one would find the temperature monitoring most useful. Very often, one neglects the proper ventilation of the harddisk. This S.M.A.R.T software can continuously monitor the temperature and warns us if the temperature has exceeded the preset level. This would often prevent premature harddisk failures.

Besides temperature monitoring , the software can scan harddisk surface and display the results in graphs. This will facilitate the repair and the revival the harddisk. The software could also point out the data transfer errors caused by faulty cables etc.

Doubleclick for enlarged view

How to install?The HDDScan software to be download comes with installation readme notes as well as manuals for the installation and operation of the software. There are no complicated installation procedures other than having to extract the ZIP files into a selected directory.

Related articles
1. S.M.A.R.T. Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
2. HDDScan, the HDDGuru