The Hang Man Candlestick; is it dangerous?

5 August 2013

Introduction 

A hangman candle stick appeared last Friday in DOW.  It has long lower shadow and a small head,  resembling a hammer.  

 

What is a HangMan ? 

It is called a hangman and not a hammer because it is a bearish sign.  If it is confirmed,  it can often bring stock market to its knees before it could recover again.

Hangman reversal patterns are often seen on the very top of the uptrend.  There are many reasons why hangman is so bearish.  Many explain that it is because the uptrend is almost exhausted and the bulls are losing control for various reasons.

What has happened?

This present uptrend is driven all along by QEs.  When Bernanke announced the thinking of QE tapering in May,  the market responded with an immediate sell down.  The 10 year treasury yield jumped more than 10% in a single day.    

Although Bernanke and other FED members talked up the market in July,  many Wall Street analysts and bankers still hold the view that FED would  start QE tapering in September this year and would end QE next year because:- 

a)  Bernanke's tapering was based on US economy to turn better in September and also unemployment rate to be  lowered to 6.5% next year.  No one in a clear mind would believe him because of the slowing growth in China and all over the World;

b)  On the contrary,  most analysts believe in what Mr. Mohamed El-Erian, the CEO of PIMCO,  had said about "less positive reason" for tapering which is the side effect of QEs.  Mr.  El-Erain thinks that FED is tapering because it has started "to get more and more worried about what Mr. Bernanke has called the costs and risks of prolonged unconventional and experimental policy".

As money are easily available for tradings,  Funds and Bankers often use derivatives for hedging purposes to protect their trading investments or as part of their investment strategy.  These derivative tradings involve risks and the portfolios investing in derivatives could lose more than the principal amount invested.

For example,  after Bernanke announced its intend to taper QE,  USbond yield jumped. This has caused many Hedge Funds and Bankers to lose $billions over night.  Pimco Bond Guru Bill Gross admitted the Fund has lost about 4% of its $265billions PIMCO Fund requiring the need to withdraw about $10 billions to make up the losses.

Treasury bond derivative is only one of the larger ones played by the Hedge Funds and the Bankers. It was estimated that the bet on interest rate derivatives had reached about $400 Trillions and the total sum of the derivative trading has exceeded $700 Trillions Worldwide and expanding at a rate of about 30% per year.

Is this DOW's Hangman Candlestick Dangerous?

This  occurrence of  Hangman is considered dangerous because it happened right after the FED's tapering announcement where the jump in Treasury yield had caused a lot big Funds and Bankers to lose money.  They would have to find money to make up the losses.  Although DOW has managed not only to regain its losses but also making another new high,  it would not help to cover up the loss bets in the Treasury bonds.  DOW has gone flat since 22 July with many trading days having sold off at the start and recovered only at the end of the trading sessions.  This trading pattern was a common sight during the 2007/2008 market when market was topping and bulls are running out of "bullets".

Will We Need  a Confirmation Signal?

Hangman candlestick pattern is often considered less reliable reversal signal in a way that the bulls are still actively engaged in the trade;  therefore,  there is a need to see a strong down day in the following trading days for confirmation.   Should this pattern be confirmed,  it can often bring the stock market to its knee before it can recover again.  The confirmation should be either a gapped down or a long red candlestick or a combination of small down days.

Update 1:  8 August 2013  Hangman is Confirmed

 

After having formed the hangman,  DOW was been slow in confirming the bearish pattern.  It took a total of 3 down days and finally,  confirmed reluctantly with a weak down candlestick as it broke the supporting line.   May be many investors are still hopeful that QE tapering will not come.  Because of the weak confirmation,  these hopeful investors may retry to re-capture loss ground if there is an opportunity.  The real downward movement will come only when the retries failed to go above the supporting line as shown.

In the weekly chart,  DOW has also formed a breakaway bearish pattern yet to be confirmed as the week is not over. It will aim at covering up the 2 small candlestick gaps as shown.   Similarly,  a bearish engulfing is beginning to take shape in the monthly chart.

Q&A

Why not check S&P, Nasdaq and other Charts

Traders should not just refer to one chart alone for trading.  As this blog is for learning and not for trading purposes, it would leave it to the traders to do their homework.  Since there is this question,  it would be good to examine the other charts;  for example,  S&P and Nasdaq.  It would appear that both S&P and Nasdaq have been affected by the hangman in DOW.  Both S&P and Nasdaq's fall have not been confirmed

S&P

Nasdaq

Update2:  20 August 2013

After having formed the hangman candlestick,  DOW went ahead to break the 50 MA last Thursday and broke the 100 MA yesterday as shown in the following chart.

DOW has also broken 2 necklines;  1st,  last Thursday when DOW broke the 50MA and yesterday, when DOW broke the 100MA.    When DOW broke the 1st neckline last Thursday,  the volume was not high and therefore,  that Head and Shoulder pattern was  not confirmed.  As for the present neckline2,  the volume is again low as Monday is usually a low volume day.   However,  it was observed that there are many call options still trapped in the system and they will stop trading this Friday.  It is expected that volume will pick up and this would confirm the second neckline.  Once that were to happen,  DOW will head towards to test the 200MA line.

Update 3 :  23 August 2013 - Bullish Harami Spotted;  Will this reverse the trend?

After several days of down trend with DOW losing about 6% or 800 points,  a bullish harami candlestick is finally spotted.  Yesterday,  Germany announced better than expected manufacturing  PMI figure of 52 whereas US had bad economy figures with retail sale and jobless claims below expectation.  The investors cheered and started the buying spree with US investors hoping that QE will not be tapered.  But will this bullishness continue in the US and for how long?

The following chart will show that DOW has been oversold with the stochastic showing signs of recovery. A Harami candlestick is spotted but this one is not as strong as those having a much smaller body in the second day. 

As this dip is much worst that the previous ones and the Harami spotted is not very strong; also unlike the previous occasions,  the US 10 year yield is at 52 weeks high,  it is advisable to wait till the MACD histogram to hit positive before entering the market as shown in the chart.

How Fast Exactly is the Solid State Drive?

4 July 2013

Introduction

We have an Acer 4755G notebook which has a Core i5 processor with 8 GB of memory.  It is been running on 64 bits Windows 7 operating system.  After we have changed the hard disk from 750GB Western Digital magnetic drive to 250 GB SamSung 840 series solid state drive (SSD),  we immediately notice the notebook reads 6 times and writes 3 times faster with almost instant connection to internet pages.  It boots up in about 20 seconds which is 1/2 of the time taken.   This article will describe how it is done and what is the test results. 

What you need?

1.  A software transfer program;

2.  A small screw drivers;
3.  Plenty of readings.

Before Starting Work

1.  Check that your computer/ notebook's BIOS has an  AHCI interface for the disk drive.  SSD will only work well with AHCI interface although IDE interface will also work at slower speed.

2.  If the existing hard disk (referred as old hard disk)  is running off an IDE interface,  then there is a need to re-configure first the old hard disk  to run on AHCI interface.  If one should get a blue screen of death (BSOD) after changing the interface to AHCI or vice versa,  consult the following microsoft  website .

Transferring Programs from Old Hard Disk

This is the most tedious part of the work and time consuming.  It may take up the whole day.  It involves also copying the operating system.   If one has the notebook which has only one hard disk slot ,  there are 2 choices:

1.  Using SamSung SSD Magician Software 

The SamSung SSD Magician comes as a package in a DVD. Mount the SSD on an external hard disk enclosure or adaptor for  SSD drive (such as the adaptor that comes with the package if it is included).    One can also download the Magician from the SamSung's website.

If the SSD is new,  it may need to be configured first using Windows' Dsk Management tool;  otherwise,   SamSung Magician might not be able to find the SSD drive.   To open Disk Management,  goto Control->Adminstrative Tools->Computer Management,  then select Disk Management. 

2.  Using Commercial Transfer Software

Software that can clone hard disk can be used also to transfer the programs.  If one just has an ordinary external hard disk enclosure that does not allow proper cloning of SSD drives,  the only alternative  is to backup the partitions of the old hard disk to an ordinary external hard disk. After that,  replace the old hard disk in the computer/notebook with the new SSD and then copy or recover back the partitions one by one. 

If one's computer has an extra hard disk port that can offer AHCI interface functions,  one can hook up the SSD as second drive and use any transfer software that can clone the hard disks to transfer the entire hard disk program including the operating system. 

3.  Installing New Operating System

 

Some prefer to install new Windows Operating System on SSD.  Windows 7 has a program under Accessories>System Tools that will allow one to make a copy of programs to be transferred from old hard disk to new hard disk or old computer to new computer.  One will need an external  hard disk space of about the same size of the programs to be transferred. 

Before starting to install the new Windows Operating System,  save a copy of the existing program.  This can be done easily using Windows Easy Transfer.   Start up Windows Easy Transfer and select "Old Computer" to copy the programs to external hard disk.  Click the "custom" wording and in the "Advanced" menu,  check all the check boxes if one wants to transfer all the programs; otherwise,  select only the desired ones. 

The whole process may take up to 1 hour depending on the size of programs to be transferred.  After the SSD is installed with the new Windows operating system,  transfer back the programs as instructed by Windows Easy Transfer.

Things to Watch out

1) Before replacing the old Hard Disk, make sure to delete all the unwanted and obsolete programs so that the total capacity of all the partitions added up together or the partition to be copied is less the capacity of the new SSD drive;

2)Ensure again that the existing hard disk is running on AHCI and not IDE hard disk interface.if you use method 1 or 2.  When installing new operating system in method 3,  set the BIOS to run hard disk on AHCI first before installing the operating system.

Where to find the hard disk in notebook? 

The hard disk is usually hidden inside and underneath the notebook.  One would have to remove the hard disk cover for replacement.  Note that some notebook has warranty seal on the cover screws.

What to do if the SSD does not perform to expectation?

There are many reasons.  But if there is an AHCI interface,  the following steps might be of some help. 

1) Tweak the computer using available software provided by the SSD manufacturer;  for example in the case of SamSung SSD,  use  "Performance Optimization" and "OS Optimization" to optimise the performance,  then  use the  "Over Provisioning"  and "Shrink (default value)" to shrink the start up partition (which usually is c:) so that SSD will work more efficiently; 

2) Check if the TRIM function of Windows 7 is turned on by the following step by step method:-

a) Open up Command Prompt by typing "CMD" in the start up search bar and run CMD as administrator;

b)  In the Command Prompt,  type "fsutil behavior query DisableDeleteNotify".   The  result  "0" indicates that TRIM is enabled correctly.  If the result is "1" or otherwise then type

"fsutil behavior set DisableDeleteNotify 0"  in the next command prompt. This will change the result to "0" and enables the TRIM; 

3)  It may be necessary to carry out the following additional modification works:-

 a)  Turn off hibernation function

At the command prompt,  type "powercfg -h off" to turn off the function 

b) Turned off drive indexing in C drive

Click "Computer" in start button menu.  In the C: drive,  right click "properties" and then uncheck "allow files on this drive to have contents indexed.." 

c) Switch "Power Option" from "balanced power"  to "high performance";  alternatively,  to use mains power to over write the power option for computer to perform at "high performance"

To prevent unnecessary "garbage collection" by SSD and degrade performance over time,  it would be wise to customise the  "Pagefile" in the "Advanced System Setting" of "COMPUTER" from "system manage"  to 100 MB min/1000 MB max.

Test Results 

The following compares the performance of ACER 4755 before and after the conversions.

The AS SSD Benchmark software can be downloaded here.  The results shown that there are appreciable differences between the 2.   The old hard disk took too long to complete the test and has to be terminated.

DIY Mosquito Screens

28 June 2013

Introduction 

Dengue is the  name of a disease spread by a special mosquito called aedes mosquito. 

To date,   It has claimed 4 lives in Singapore.  It is also a common disease in Philippines,  Malaysia and other countries in South East Asia.  So far,  there is no cure or drugs for treating dengue;  doctors will just prescribe pain killers and make observation for life threatening signs. This article will describe the experience that the author has had fighting against Dengue.

How To Prevent? 

The only way is to avoid a mosquito bite but it is easily said than done as mosquito is everywhere.  The common knowledge is to eradicate the mosquito breeding grounds.  NEA (National Environment Agency) found 80% of breeding grounds are actually right at home.  This however does not prevent one from mosquito bites because there are so many breeding grounds out there in the natural habitat that cannot be easily eradicated. 

The only effective way the author has found is to install mosquito screens at home and wear repellents outdoors to prevent contacts with the mosquito.  The article will concentrate on how to install these mosquito screens DIY and save money. 

Why the Screen?

1.  It is a permanent measure that will save "tons" of insecticides which is not only  harmful the environment but also the human beings;

2.  It cost next to nothing to maintain;  only occasional cleaning is required;

3.  It does not block out much sunlight and ventilation;

4.  It is aesthetically pleasing as screens are almost transparent;

5.  One can repair the screen easily using thread and needle

How Many Type of Mosquito Screens? 

There are many types of mosquito screens available in the market;   roughly,  they fall into 2 categories; the fixed and the removable type. 

The fixed type can often be done as simple as using construction plastic coated green mesh or net available from many local hardware shops;  the more sophisticated one will use special woven net materials.  They come in a roll form.  Some plastic coated green mesh can be quite brittle and are not suitable for screen making because they will tear easily during installation;  the better ones are woven type.  They all look about the same but the woven ones are thinner and has fibre threads.

The removable ones are mainly of woven net materials except it is first fixed onto a specially made PVC trunking and then attached to plastic magnets so that they can be removed at will for cleaning for example.  As there is a video made for the removable type,  this article will concentrate on how to install the fixed type.

How to DIY using Construction Mesh/Net?

To install the wire mesh onto the wooden window frames,  one can use small timber strips and a staple gun. 

Cut a piece of mesh slightly bigger than the opening and fix into position with timber strips; thereafter staple the timber strips onto the window frame with the staple gun. Making sure that the timber strip is thick enough to fit the staples to let it stapled onto the wooden frame.

To install the wire mesh to metal frames or concrete wall would require having to fix first and screw a small timber frame onto the metal frames or concrete using electric drill and fixing screws.  After that,  one can use the same method as fixing the mesh to the timber frame as described earlier.

How to DIY using Woven screens

These woven screen comes either with honey cone or square net form. 

They are stretchable and can be hooked onto velcro strip that usually come as a package as shown.  They will cost around USD$2/= from ebay suppliers directly delivered to your door steps.

The fixing is relatively simple and quick.  The velcro is first fixed onto wooden or metal frame work after having first cleaned the surfaces with industrial thinner or equivalent;  thereafter,  just lay the screen over without stretching and press the screen onto the hook of the velcro.

The trick for successful installation is NOT to stretch the screen when laying it over the opening.  Stretching the screen will cause undue pulling force on the velcro which can become detached easily,  leaving a hole;  then the only way to re-fix the velcro in position is to staple it using the staple gun.

Mosquito Screen for Sliding Windows

Most of the windows today are sliding type.  There are 2 ways to fix mosquito nets.  One is to fix it external either directly onto the window grilles or metal mesh or to construct a wooden frame as big as a window panel.  Fix the screen first onto the timber frame using the same methods described above then mount the screen as if it is one of the windows.

Sliding Screens for Doors

The screen for the door will be a bit harder to construct because it will involve a sliding type of screen. However,  one can construct the screen door cheaply using an aluminium or timber frame to slide it along a window curtain rail as shown. 

Allow horizontal and vertical adjustment in the brackets holding the curtain rail to get a smooth sliding.  There will be a need to install a pvc strips on the floor next to the screen door as a stopper to prevent screen door from swinging in and out or to and fro when the wind blows.

The curtain rail is easily available from any hardware store.  A sliding screen door can be made within a day or two for less than SGD$30/= ( $ 15/= for the aluminium frame,  $ 10/= for the curtain rail and $5/= for the screen and the angle brackets or stiffeners.)   If aluminium frame is used,  just glue the screen onto the aluminium frame and trim the edges after having the ugly glue parts concealed by using special timber strip of 5 to 10 mm width (from Diaso IMM store or Art's Friends at Bouna Vista MRT station).   

There are also special curtains made for the door and they are available for ebay.  The curtains have  magnetic strips on the opening edges to seal the curtains.

.

 Q & A

 

1. Will the screens cut out natural lights and ventilation?

The mesh or net will cut not much lights and ventilation. The normal construction green mesh may cut by less than 10%;  the woven screen,  by less than 5%. The woven screen is almost transparent viewing from a distant of more than 2 feet away.  

 2. Wouldn't mosquito still get in through the doors?

Mosquito will like to rest on dark surfaces,  especially when the doors are colored dark. When one opens the door,  it is very likely for mosquito to be "blown" into the house by the "wind" of the door.  One way to prevent this is to have light colored doors;  the alternative is to place mosquito repellents near the door way and renew the repellents every now and then when they expire. 

3. Would the screens trap dust?

Yes.  Some dust will accumulate over time but vacuum cleaning will keep them clean again.

4.  I bought the woven type with velcro from ebay.  How do I hide the ugly edges?

The screens come with a 5 mm velcro strip which can be an eye sore when the screen's edges are untidy.  One good way to hide the ugly edges is to cut another velcro strip and press it onto the original velcro;  the alternative is to buy small 20 mm x 10 mm or smaller trunkings meant for electrical wiring to cover up the edges.  Fortunately,  only the windows at the corridor are exposed and need the edges to be covered up.

5.  Must we ensure that all openings are protected? Some are difficult

All openings in the house must be protected,  even the openings leading to open yards and door ways.  It will be useless to protect all windows and leave the doors open.  Install door closing device if needed be to ensure the doors will be closed at all time and also double quick.  There will always be a way to seal the openings.  Discuss this over with your carpenter or home builder

6.  Why do we need stiffeners for the sliding door screen?

The sliding door made from 12 mm square aluminium box section will be very unstable for a screen door of about 2.2 metre tall and 1.5 metre wide.   Stiffeners and angle plates plus cross bars will need to be added to ensure the screen door would not wobble.

7.  How to Prevent Sliding Door Screen from Swinging?

The sliding door screens made from aluminum frame are quite light and will swing if there are strong wind.   To hold down the frame,  one would need a floor track for the door.  The author used a long piece of 3/4" width telephone trunking as the floor track and 2 Nos of 5 mm stainless steel ball bearings as door slider at each end of the door screen as shown

Cut 2 short piece of aluminum channels and drill 2 holes on each piece.  The hole shall be made just slightly smaller than the diameter of the ball so that it will hold the ball in between the channel and the door frame.  After ensuring the ball bearing is free to move,  fit the aluminum channels and ball bearing to the screen frame using rivets.  (Tip: One can start drilling the hole one size smaller than ball diameter and use hole reamer tool or round needle file to enlarge the hole)

Monitoring Haze

24 June 2013

 

Introduction

Haze is here to stay as long as there are plantations in Sumatra of  Indonesia where fire is often used to clear the lands for agricultural purposes.   The haze will linger over Singaporein the middle of the year until October or November when North West Monsoon begins to blow from North towards Sumatra.

Is Haze Dangerous?

Haze is harmful to human's respiration system;  prolonged inhaling of haze particles will cause sickness and those with acute respiration or heart problems  may find it life threatening.  During the hazy days with PSI (Air Pollution Index) going above 100,  many will have to cancel outdoor activities and will be advised to stay indoors or wear N95 face masks outdoors.   

How to Monitor?

 

Using particle counters that can measure air particulates as small as 2.5 micron in diameters;  however, these counters involves laser technology and they are not cheap.  A cheap one will cost around SGD$300-400 and professional ones may be as high as SGD$30,000/=.  These counters are out of reach of most households.  Fortunately,  Singapore's NEA (National Environmental Agency) and Malaysia's DOE (Department of Environment) maintain websites during the period where one could get latest readings of the pollution indexes. The Singapore website provides 3 hourly as well as 24 hour readings whereas the Malaysian website updates the data once every 4 hours. 

The Singapore's NEA website can be found here.

The Malaysia's DOE website is here 
(Note:  this website is always in heavy usage;  accessible easily off peak)

How About Forecasting? 

The Singapore's NEA provides daily forecast in its website and the forecast is updated once a day.  However,  the forecasts are not often accurate for some reasons;  for example,  NEA forecasted that the PSI  will reach 300  on 23 Jun 2013 whereas the day's actual  maximum was around 110 and staying below 100 most of the day.

 

 

How Can We Confirm the Forecast?

Fortunately,  there are very comprehensive free weather forecasting website available for Singapore;  they are:-
 

a)  Windalert

b) Time anddate

c)  Windfinder

One can use their wind direction predictions together with the regional haze map  to check and confirm the forecast.

How?

One will need the following tools:- 

a)  A regional haze map showing the geographicallocation of the haze(free from NEA);  for example

  

b)  The prediction of the wind directions given by the 3 free weather sites;  for example,

 

First check the haze map.  If Singapore is not in or near the haze cloud as is shown in the above haze map,  Singapore is likely to be free from haze for the day. This should be further confirmed by the wind directions. If the wind direction is not pointing East or North East  and is pointing North or North West like being shown,   most likely one would enjoy pollution free sky in Singapore and vice versa.

 

Planning for a Trip to Malaysia? 

Many planned to hide from the haze and go to Genting Highland for holidays;  some went to Penang. Is it safe?

The Regional Haze Map,  the DOE and wind direction predictions will show that it is not advisable to head to Kuala Lumpur,  Genting,  Pahang,  Muar or Melaka at the present moment.  The haze cloud and the wind directions are heading North and North West.  Penangat present is free from pollution but will soon be clouded with haze if the prevailing North West wind is strong.

Planning to Go Out?

One could check the sky condition and also the webcam picture from the following sites for conditions of the haze. 

a)  Webcam @ Admiralty Road

b)  Webcam @ Kent-Ridge

c)  Webcam @ Raffles Place

How To Conceal Car Camera Wirings

20 June 2013
 

Introduction

Car camera is a plenty nowadays in the market.  They are cheap around SGD$50/=. It has quick to become an essential piece of equipment but unfortunately,  the camera must be retrofitted as it is a non-standard item for most cars.

What are the Installation Problems?

One problem is how to conceal the "long and black" cable that is getting electricity supply from the cigarette lighter.  Many have run the cable exposed as shown which is quite unsightly.
 

 

How to Conceal?

Fortunately,  most cars today are fitted with loose panels and ceiling board so that they can be easily removed or interiors accessed without having to tear them down.  This article will use 2011 Toyota Yaris Spirit as an example to illustrate how the wiring can be concealed.

 

Step by Step

1.  First,  remove the windscreen side panel

 

The side panel is held in place by two bottom clip and special clip on top as shown

 

 

To remove,  first use finger to pry open the side panel at the top to expose the special clip.

 

 

 

Then twist the base of the special clip so that the hook is in-lined with the slot of the side panel for the panel to be pulled out sideway. 

 

 

 

Remove the side panel, paying special attention not to damage the air bag assembly for the side windows

 

 

2.  Remove the instrument subcover

 

Remove the 2 screws and pull the cover down to release the 2 catch as shown.  This will expose the interior parts above the clutch and the brake panel

 

3. Thread wires through opening

 

Thread the wire through the opening as shown below.  Note that the author has a specially made cable and a box to house other electronics;  otherwise,  the stock cable can just be run through here to the cigarette lighter without mounting the box.

 

 

4.  Fixing wire to instrument sub cover

 

 The cable can be run across the instrument sub cover and fix in position by bluetac as shown. 

 

 

5. Running cable along the roof

 

The cable that run across the roof and can be hide inside the roof by prying open the edge of the ceiling board using just fingers. 

 

6.  Assembly back components

 

Reverse the dismantling process to reinstate all components back to their original position

 

7.  Completed Wiring

 

The completed wiring installation is as shown below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DIY Air Filtering Face Mask

20 June 2013

Introduction

When the PSI reading goes above 200,  it will be good to wear a face mask even at home unless one has a proper and efficient air filtering system in the room. What happen if you and the stores run out of face mask?  It is happening now in Singapore.

DIY a Face Mask

For ladies,  they could have used their  bra but for most,  it is better to find other materials.  One of them is the non woven electrostatic fibre paper that has been used extensively for  floor cleaning. Tissue paper can be alternative source but they are too fragile to handle.

Whats Needed? 

1.                  A box of electrostatic fibre paper easily available from any convenience store @ SGD$1/=

2.                  Four rubber bands

How to Construct?

Take one sheet of fibre paper and fold it in halve.  Tie two rubber band together in a link and tie the rubber to the end of the paper.  Wear it with one end of the rubber band to the ear.

If needed be,  insert a trash bag tie and staple it to the top of the mask for closing up the gap between the paper and the nose.. 

Adjust the length of the rubber band to suit comfort wearing..  If one layer of paper is not sufficient,  use 2 layers.

Disclaimers:  These are not proper substitute for commercial face mask.  The method is untested.  It is intended only for emergency use when one runs of face mask in the stores.