I Saw Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 In Water – Woman says

26 March 2014 

Introduction 

Malaysian flight  MH370 went missing on 8 March with 239 people on board.  It was en routed from Kuala Lumpurto Beijing.  The experts now pin-pointed the plane's location to be about 2,500 km west of Perth,  Australia.  Till date,  there is still no sighting of the plane nor its debris.  This article is not offering any expert view but some arguments and pictures from another angle. 

The Johor Housewife

A Johor housewife, Mrs Latife Dalelah, claimed that she saw an aircraft  half submerged in the waters  at about 2:30 pm  Malaysian time (same for the rest)  when she was returning to Kuala Lumpur after a pilgrimage to Mecca on 8 March.   The news said that she took Saudis flight SV2058 that left Jeddah at 8.30am but actually,  she took Saudis flight SV2798 and not SV2058 as shown in the attached. 

 

Flight Path of SV 2798

According to flightradar’s flight history,  Saudis Airline SV2788’s flight path is as shown.  On 8 March 2014,  SV 2798 took the red dotted path  flying over Chennai of India.

Using the flight data found at flightrada24,  one could determine that flight SV2798 was  above Chennai at around 1300 hour (5:00 UTC).  It then jumped to show SV2798 at the marked location at 1500 hours as there was no data in flightradar24 for 2 hours between the two time intervals on 8 March.    If one interpolates the time and distance,    one could find the rough location where  Mrs Latife Dalelah sighted the airplane at 14:30 hours.    It was at a distance almost perpendicular to the site where Tomnod map 4543, 5239 and other maps were located.  

The same is shown on  a google earth map where Tomnod maps were tagged.

Update:

For those interested in finding out the co-ordinates of the various Tomnod maps using Google Earth or Google Map can download this file.   It will load and appear automatically in Google Earth or map. To get the co-ordinates,  click the "direction" at the bottom.

 What is Tomnod map?

Tomnod is a website where it allows volunteers to spot and tag any object using satellite images.  So far,  some of the maps showing possible debris findings were circulated around in various forums and twitted around as shown in the Appendix.
 

Can one see object from a plane flying at around 35,000 feet?

Many web articles said can.  One of them claimed that we could see a 737 plane or smaller ones from 30,000 feet and  777 is almost twice the size of 737.  He assumed that one should have a normal vision, or vision that was corrected to be normal.   

This website offered a calculator that says that human eyes can see an object about 250 miles away from 35,000 feet.  This is  roughly the distant from where  Mrs Latife Dalelah was to the Tomnod maps.

 

The Satellite Pinging 

The experts used doppler effect of the satellite pinging and the 4 pings to pin-point the where-about of MH370.  Although this Doppler effect of satellite pinging was never used before to locate a plane,  many,  including the Malaysian PM,  have accepted it beyond reasonable doubts.  This Doppler effect concept appears to go against Mrs Latife Dalelah’s plane sighting because the plane was not moving after it had crashed. It could not have been providing the satellite pings with Doppler effect throughout the next 4 hours.   The only logical explanation that can hold some water is that the aircraft’s  satellite pinger might be floating after the crash and was transmitting the signal although the quality, strength and also the frequency of the signal could be affected after being partly submerged in water.    

Conclusion 

There could and just may be possible that Mrs Latife Dalelah had seen flight MH370.   If that is the case,  the multi-nation search now carrying out in the southern Indian Ocean west of Australiawill be futile and will  turn up no result.

Update 1:  Check the vision of the lady  26 March

 

Someone in a forum suggested that lady's vision should be checked as she was over 50.  This suggestion is reasonable but in the first instance,  someone must accept her story.  BTW,  how much would it cost to send a plane there to check it out?

 

 

Update 2:  How deep is the seamount  26 March

 

The seamount or the mountain under water where the Tomnod maps are located is called the "ninetyyeast ridge" in the eastern Indian Ocean as shown.  It is about 5000 km in length,  stretching from the Andaman islands all the way to Western Australia.  According to this echogram from this article,  the ridge is still very deep,   around 1,500 to 2000 metres.  Therefore,  it is likely that any plane landed there would have sunk after sometime.

 

 

 

 Update3 : Picture from the Plane 28 March

 

A Chinese forumer took a photo of Lanzhou airport from a plane.  He said  he was about 10,000 metres (or about 32,800 feet) high and about 200 km away when he took the following  picture with his  Canon digital camera that  has no focusing function.  The parking planes can be seen roughly. 

 

  

Update 4:  Timing of the sighting - 28 March

 

Mrs Latife Dalelah saw  the plane floating in the water at 2:30 pm Malaysian time and the Malaysian's military radar spotted the plane flying around Andaman sea and disappeared from the limit of its screen around 2:15 am,  about 200 miles North West of Penang.  There is an approximate 10 hours between the two locations.  Although the plane might take another hour to fly to the crash site,  the timing is against  Mrs Latife Dalelah's plane sighting unless the plane could float in the water with air pockets in the fuselage and the wings for about 9 hours.

 

 

Update 5: Can Plane float in the water? - 28 March

 

Plane will eventually sink when landed on water.  The time taken will depend on the condition of the aircraft,  how it is damaged as well as the pressure within the aircraft and whether there are still air pockets large enough to hold up the plane.  In the history of aviation,  most planes landed on water sunk within an hour.  However, on 23 November 1996,  there was an Ethiopian Airlines Flight 961 (a Boeing 767-260ER) floated in the Indian Ocean for some time until the 50 survivors were rescued. 

 

============================================================

Appendix I:  Tomnod maps

1)  Tomnod map 4534 and 5239 

Tomnod map 4534 and 5239 contain some satellite images debris that were suspected to be from MH370.   

5239 appears to show the 2 engines of the Boeing 777

It matches the dimensions of Boeing 777 when a 777 was superimposed as shown in the following picture. 

 

Isn't the engines supposed to have sunk? 

It may be because the plane actually hit the seamount as it crashed (see google earth map)  and the plane did not sink immediately when the satellite image was taken.  The waves or ripples created on top and around the right wing suggested some very big boards as large as a wing of a plane was submerged underneath the water.  Just like what was seen here for this plane

 

Map 4543 which shows some debris that appears to match one of the logo of MAS airline “Malaysia” although many said the fonts were not the same.  It may have been distorted due to the poor resolution of the satellite images 

 

Other debris found around the area   

 

 

 

 

Bed Cooler for Ng Teng Fong Hospital

12 February 2013

Introduction

The 700-bed Ng Teng Fong hospital at Jurong East is set to open in December 2013.  It will serve the 900,000-strong residential and business community in the West of Singapore.  It shall have green surroundings and spacious wards with a view of  several rooftop gardens.  However,  what most patients need is also a good rest and a good night sleep for quick recovery in the hospital;  it is always hard to get one in a hot and humid environment like in Singapore.  

Is it acceptable?

The report said that the spacious wards in Ng Teng Fong hospital will have natural ventilation except for those in private wards.  Those who was bedridden before will testify that this is far from acceptable. What about those who are suffering from bed sore?   

What can be done?

One way is to provide air-conditioning for all the wards.  But this will not only make hospital stays  more expensive but also not acceptable because it is unhygienic to share recycled air.   Furthermore,  individual control for air-conditioning is not possible except for the private rooms.  Howvewr, Air conditioners cannot solve bed sore problem unless the heat from the bed can be extracted.   Other methods such as provision of water bed and ripple bed will not help also.   The alternative is to provide bed cooler,  one for each bed.

 

What is a Bed Cooler?

It is a small air conditioning system that will cool only the bed.  It has a cooling  sheet or jacket spreaded between the bed sheet and the bed.  The cooling sheet may have embedded flexible tubes or otherwise that will allow cooled air or chilled water to be circulated to the bed to extract the body heat.  The simple ones used a cooling fan blowing into the cooling sheet;  the more complicated ones use chilled water for cooling.  The latter is preferred because it can provide better and efficient cooling.   

What are the Advantages?

Bed coolers will not only provide affordable cooling,  it is also hygienic as water is used as a media in a closed loop system.  It will work well in natural ventilated wards.  Bed coolers can save up to 90% of the air conditioning bills.  If they are operated together with existing air conditioning,  it can save up to 50% of the energy bills as the temperature of the existing air conditioning can be raised.  The system can be designed to be controlled remotely,  individually and/or centrally  to suit the patients’ cooling requirement.  

Bed sore is one of the biggest problem in hospitals as most hospital use  PVC covered mattresses and pillows for hygienic reason and ease of cleaning.   Patients are often strapped with tubes or illnesses making them difficult to turn their backs and bodies around like ordinary people.    Prolonged staying in the bed in a position will cause bed sores.  Although the nurses can help,  they are often very busy.  Bed coolers can help to solve this bed sore problem,  save labour as well as energy cost.

Why our Hospitals not using them?

It may be because bed cooler is a relatively new concept that has never been used in hospitals.  Many are not sure just how they would fit into the hospital's operation. Bed coolers are quickly perceived to have operational  problem;  for example, how to ensure that the cooling system can be quickly connected and disconnected when the bed is always on the move.  

Bed Cooler,  a Proven System?

Bed coolers are actually nothing new.  They are just miniature size of a chilled water cooling system that has been used in cooling large buildings. They can be part of the existing air conditioning  system with addition of  inexpensive controls and minimum maintenance. 

As for the  quick connection and disconnection of chilled water piping for beds on the move without making a mess on the floor,  there are proven  quick connectors that one can use to ensure safe connection and disconnection without any water spillage or leakage.  Such quick connectors have been used in car racing sports  to fill up the petrol for the racing cars within minutes or seconds.    

Additional Cost

The bed cooler can make use of the existing chillers often installed as a standard in air conditioning buildings.  The additional cost for the new building will not be much;  even for existing buildings,  it would be possible to add bed coolers without additional chillers as the burden of bed coolers  should  be offset by reduced air conditioning load.   The additional cost will therefore be the PVC water jacket which will cost less than $20/= each when purchased in bulk.  There will be additional cost for quick connectors, small pumps, heat exchanger,  tubing and flow controls which a rough estimate indicates that it will not cost more than  $400 per bed including installation. 

 

 

Conclusion

It is good for hospital to have all the features and facilities that are designed for healing but what is the use if the patient cannot get a good rest or a good night sleep in a hot and humid environment of Singapore.  Bed coolers will not only save energy bills, it can also save labour cost and solve bed sore problems.  It is also more hygienic than the ordinary air conditioners.

]
Update :  19 August 2014

Just read  that Tan Tock Seng Hospital had retrofitted their hospital's subsidised  wards with  air conditioning.   This indicates that there are demands even for existing hospital to retrofit its wards for better comfort of the patients.  However,  the air conditioning provision will not be able to solve the bed sore problem because the air conditioning cannot reach the bed and take away the body heat built-ups;  only bed coolers can.   

The retrofitting of the air conditioning to existing building will cost at least 200% more than bed cooler,  requiring extensive retro-fitting work and closure of the wards for some long period.  As for the bed cooler,  one will need only a bottom corner space to run horizontal PVC trunking for piping and controls.,  the installation should take less than a week.

References

Cut Cooling Bills by 90%

Spot Cooling Cuts Aircond Bills by 50%

DIY Bed Cooler

Bed Cooler, a Worthwhile investment

tinyurl :  https://tinyurl.com/y8g4c5xu

What VIX Can Tell Us?

29 Jan 2014

Introduction 

VIX is a volatility index that tracks the trends of the US markets.  It runs inversely proportional to the USindexes.  When VIX goes up,  the general US market indexes like DOW JONE (DJI) ,  S&P500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (IXIC) will trend down and vice versa.   Many investors like to view VIX in daily chart but it would be more meaningful to view VIX in another form.  This article will show how and why. 

Original form

When VIX is shown in its original daily form,  it simply shows the inversion between indexes between say SPX and VIX.  Nothing in the chart can show how one can use VIX to predict  the direction of SPX.

Transformed

If one were to transform VIX by showing only the 20-day,  50-day and 200-day simple averages,  one can use it immediately to show whether it is strong buy or strong sell or just simple buy and sell.

Why?

When VIX is shown in its original form,  the noises of daily movement prevented the trends from revealing.  The average function smoothen out the noises.    One can also use many other similar smoothening technique or technical analysis tools to chart VIX’s direction and predict where the USmarkets will go next.

The Significances

1. The reversal of VIX’s 20-day will indicate the reversal of SPX.  It will also indicate if it is buy or a sell;
2. The 200-day will chart the general direction of the SPX.        SPX will trend up when the 200-day trends down. When the 200-day going flat or trending the other direction; be ready to press buttons;
3. When 20-day or 50-day rebounds from the 200-day,  it could be time for a strong buy or sell;
4. If there is a cross between 20-day,  50-day and 200-day, it has some special meanings.  When the 20-day or 50-day fluctuates around 200-day, it does indicate some weakness to come in the main indexes.

Where the US Markets are Heading?

The US markets should register a strong buy as it rebounded recently from the 200-day;  however,  the 200-day has been going flat with signs of going up;   therefore,  it should limit the further rise of SPX;  also,  the VIX’s daily closing price is running very close to the red 2-year trendline with no sign of trending down.  

With the 20 and 50-day now turning up,  the SPX will be ready to trend down.  When the 20-day crosses the 200-day and subsequently corrects and rebounds from the 200-day,  be ready for a plunge.

Disclaimer:  Please note that this article concludes its finding from analysing the charts.  As the market sentiments will change and so will be the trading pattern,  it is therefore advisable for traders to consult to seek further technical assistance if they should use these findings.

What’s Wrong With this Chart?

25 January 2014

Introduction

Shown in the chart are the DOW’s Transportation Index (^DJT) and DOW’s Commodity Index (^DJC) superimposed over the past 20 years.  There are obvious divergences and convergences between the two index.  Divergences usually happened just before any crisis and the index will converge soon after that.  Recently,  we see divergence with  ^DJT taking off mid 2011 and ^DJC going the other direction.   Lets examine closely what are the causes and  implications

Relationships Between

DJC and DJT

DJC is an index that tracks all the commodity futures that are traded in US.  DJT much Like DJI, the DOW JONES Industrial Index, consisted of about 20 US companies such as FedEx that deal with airline and rail transportation. 

As more produce like iron core, corns etc come on-stream,  more transportation will be needed.  Rightfully speaking,  the better the performance in DJC,  the better will be the performance of DJT and vice versa.  However,  there are rare occasions that over production causes  commodity prices to slump and affects only the commodity price index;  similarly,  a rise in fuel cost will cut transportation companies’ profit.

DJT and DJI

Some argued that DJT was more related to DJI than DJC.  This is because companies in DJI rely on transportation shipments to stock and sell their goods.  When DJI companies anticipate a positive performance, they will increase production of goods that will be needed to be transported between different outlets.  The two indexes inter-twine each other most of the time.

Actually,  DJI,  DJT and DJC are in a value chain except DJC is based on commodity futures indexes whereas DJI and DJT are based on stock prices of the companies.  If the external factors such as QEs are removed,  these 3 indexes should go hand in hand.

Present Development

As can be seen from the chart,   DJT took off mid of 2011 whereas DJC went the other way.  It is obvious that DJT is tracking along with DJI  whose prices have been affected by Bernanke’s QE programs.   

Why?

One reason could be because US are still heavily depended on import of commodities and the production of commodities overseas are more affected by supply and demand rather than the US’s QEs.

Where would the Prices go?

The chart shows that ^DJT and ^DJC wondered around sometimes but they always  converged and move in tandem afterwards.  It can also be seen that whenever there is appreciable divergence between the two indexes,  a recession soon follows;  they will  converge again by the time the recession is over. This happened in around year 2000,  2008 and mid 2011.  Year 2011 was an exception where an intended recession was saved by Bernanke's Operation Twist and QE3.

We are now in year 2014 where one can see the great divergence again between DJT and DJC.  It is therefore likely that these 2 indexes will again converge in the future.   But before the  convergence,  would we not see another recession?

Sealing of Openings for Window Unit Air Conditioner

22 November 2013

Introduction 

Some high rise apartments in Singapore, especially those older types, are in-built with openings for installation of window type air conditioning unit.   With the advent of inverter split air conditioning unit that can save energy,  many apartment owners have converted from the windows unit  to split air conditioner unit.  The AC installer will simply seal up the window unit openings and walk away,  leaving the owners having to face all sort of maintenance problems.  This article will describe how best to seal these openings.

What’re the maintenance problems?

The AC installer will usually seal the opening with a nice painted 3 mm plywood board,  nailed on the timber frames from inside the apartment.  This board will rot in time and allow rain water to sip onto the carpets or parquet floorings during heavy rains.  A small ledge left outside will attract not only birds to nest but also small plants to grow;  also,  the thin plywood board offers no security as they can be easily kicked open. 

What're needed? 

1. A piece of 20 mm thick plywood to cover up the hole;
2. One lots of about 30 numbers of 30 - 35 mm self-taping screws;
3. 4 number of 100 mm self taping screws
4. Few  lengths of 25x25 timber strips
5. Weather sealing strips
6. Necessary tools such as power drills,  drills,  screw drivers etc..

What precautionary measures?

Assuming that one would have to fix the heavy 20 mm board from inside the apartment to cover the opening from outside the apartment,  one necessary measure is to ensure that the board would not accidentally drop and hit some passerby beneath the openings.   This can be done by fixing ring hooks onto the board and tie strings to hold the board throughout the installation.

Installation steps 

1. Cut the 20 mm plywood to a size slightly larger than the hole;
2. Fix the ring hooks and strings,  then put board to the hole and mark up the size of the hole on the board;  alternatively, one can measure the hole and mark the board;

1. Remove the board and cut 4 number of the 25x25 timber strip to  place them exactly in the inner dimension of the opening and screw the timber strip to the board;
2. Protect the board by painting water proofing paints or seal it up with weather board or otherwise to prevent water coming into contact with the plywood;
3. Place weather sealing strip around the 4 sides of the board;
4. Prepare 4 numbers tensioner and install them onto the timber frame as shown,  making sure that the 100 mm screw is free to move and can be screw onto the 25x25 timber strips;
5. Fix the board in place and screw the 100 mm until the board is pulled in and sit tightly fitted to the timber frame with the weather sealing strip fully compressed to form the water seal;
6. Fix the 25x25 timber strip to the timber frame and remove the tensioners if necessary.

The Completed Work 

Makita Cordless Power Drill DC7100

20 November 2013

The Makita Cordless Power Drill is a handy tool.  Its power unit consists of a 7.2 volt battery pack and a fast battery charger.   This article describes how to replace the battery and repair the battery charger.

 What’s Needed

1)     For replacement of battery 

a)     Soldering iron,  solders and some connecting wires

b)     4 Nos  of 18650 Li-ion batteries.  Can also use some of the good batteries in Laptop for this purpose

 

c)     Remove the end cap of the battery pack and withdraw the batteries

d)     Solder the 18650 batteries,  2 in parallel then put them in series to make up a total voltage of 7.4 volts.  Pay particular attention to positive and negative battery terminal and make sure there are correctly wired;  also pay attention to how the resistor is connected. 

e)     Once soldering is completed, wrap the batteries with shrinkable plastic and re-assembled the batteries to the battery pack casing.

2)     For repair of the power charger 

In addition to the soldering iron,   one will need a multimeter that can measure the workings of the A1015 transistor and the 2P4M SCR thyristor.  These 2 components are likely to be at fault.  .  One would need knowledge of electronic repairs for this task.  Use the attached circuit diagram to troubleshoot.

2P4M Thyristor

Watch the US Banking Index $BKX

13 September 2013

DOW has since improved its position.  It made a 3 white soldier pattern on Tuesday as shown in the attached.  This was mainly because Obama had deferred his decision to use military force in Syria. 

DOW suffered a small pull back as expected after having formed the 3 white soldier pattern.  DOW should regain its position when the prevailing conditions remain.  However,  no jump in DOW will be seen until the banking index,  $BKX, can improve the position.

As shown,  the $BKX has recovered slightly since end August but not as strong as DOW.  It has tested the 50% of RSI on Tuesday but failed to cross over it last night.  Although its stochastic and MACD shows bullish formation,  it is getting weaker.  The consolation is that the 50-day MA is still trending up which means that there is still a chance that  $BKX will improve and continue to play  the leading role. 

10 August 2013

Introduction

In May,  it was pointed out that the US Banking Index will lead the falls of US stock market.  That index has since broken the 4 year high as well as the upper channel line that bounced the price from mid 2012.  It is heading to test the 5 year high.

Why the Banking Index?

The rise and fall of US stock market are always credit related.   The relationship is even stronger this time with the rampage of QEs. The May article has indicated that the banking index,  $BKX, will lead the market fall.  It is therefore important to pay attention to this Index.

What's the Performance?

As shown in the chart above,  $BKX has broken the 4 year high and is going to break the 5 year high.

The following chart that compares the indexes of DOW and $BKX will show that $BKX is leading the DOW,  jumping up since Mid June and showing little sign of fatigue. But the fall of  $BKX have just been confirmed last Friday.  DOW's fall was confirmed mid last week.

What is the Macro Picture?

After having formed the bearish Harami on 2 August,  $BKX has 3 subsequent downfall days confirming the Harami candlestick.  It has created also a candlestick gap on the 3rd day which was quickly covered on the 4th day by a doji,  on 8 August.  The fifth candlestick last Friday confirmed the down trend.  Because the confirmation was weak,  there might be a possibility that $BKX will want to retest this support turned resistance line.  Should that fail,  $BKX will head to break the 50MA and cover up the candlestick gap created on 5 July 2013.

Going Forward 

It may be good to pay attention to the development in $BKX and check regularly if $BKX will lead this great fall in the US stock market.

The Hang Man Candlestick; is it dangerous?

5 August 2013

Introduction 

A hangman candle stick appeared last Friday in DOW.  It has long lower shadow and a small head,  resembling a hammer.  

 

What is a HangMan ? 

It is called a hangman and not a hammer because it is a bearish sign.  If it is confirmed,  it can often bring stock market to its knees before it could recover again.

Hangman reversal patterns are often seen on the very top of the uptrend.  There are many reasons why hangman is so bearish.  Many explain that it is because the uptrend is almost exhausted and the bulls are losing control for various reasons.

What has happened?

This present uptrend is driven all along by QEs.  When Bernanke announced the thinking of QE tapering in May,  the market responded with an immediate sell down.  The 10 year treasury yield jumped more than 10% in a single day.    

Although Bernanke and other FED members talked up the market in July,  many Wall Street analysts and bankers still hold the view that FED would  start QE tapering in September this year and would end QE next year because:- 

a)  Bernanke's tapering was based on US economy to turn better in September and also unemployment rate to be  lowered to 6.5% next year.  No one in a clear mind would believe him because of the slowing growth in China and all over the World;

b)  On the contrary,  most analysts believe in what Mr. Mohamed El-Erian, the CEO of PIMCO,  had said about "less positive reason" for tapering which is the side effect of QEs.  Mr.  El-Erain thinks that FED is tapering because it has started "to get more and more worried about what Mr. Bernanke has called the costs and risks of prolonged unconventional and experimental policy".

As money are easily available for tradings,  Funds and Bankers often use derivatives for hedging purposes to protect their trading investments or as part of their investment strategy.  These derivative tradings involve risks and the portfolios investing in derivatives could lose more than the principal amount invested.

For example,  after Bernanke announced its intend to taper QE,  USbond yield jumped. This has caused many Hedge Funds and Bankers to lose $billions over night.  Pimco Bond Guru Bill Gross admitted the Fund has lost about 4% of its $265billions PIMCO Fund requiring the need to withdraw about $10 billions to make up the losses.

Treasury bond derivative is only one of the larger ones played by the Hedge Funds and the Bankers. It was estimated that the bet on interest rate derivatives had reached about $400 Trillions and the total sum of the derivative trading has exceeded $700 Trillions Worldwide and expanding at a rate of about 30% per year.

Is this DOW's Hangman Candlestick Dangerous?

This  occurrence of  Hangman is considered dangerous because it happened right after the FED's tapering announcement where the jump in Treasury yield had caused a lot big Funds and Bankers to lose money.  They would have to find money to make up the losses.  Although DOW has managed not only to regain its losses but also making another new high,  it would not help to cover up the loss bets in the Treasury bonds.  DOW has gone flat since 22 July with many trading days having sold off at the start and recovered only at the end of the trading sessions.  This trading pattern was a common sight during the 2007/2008 market when market was topping and bulls are running out of "bullets".

Will We Need  a Confirmation Signal?

Hangman candlestick pattern is often considered less reliable reversal signal in a way that the bulls are still actively engaged in the trade;  therefore,  there is a need to see a strong down day in the following trading days for confirmation.   Should this pattern be confirmed,  it can often bring the stock market to its knee before it can recover again.  The confirmation should be either a gapped down or a long red candlestick or a combination of small down days.

Update 1:  8 August 2013  Hangman is Confirmed

 

After having formed the hangman,  DOW was been slow in confirming the bearish pattern.  It took a total of 3 down days and finally,  confirmed reluctantly with a weak down candlestick as it broke the supporting line.   May be many investors are still hopeful that QE tapering will not come.  Because of the weak confirmation,  these hopeful investors may retry to re-capture loss ground if there is an opportunity.  The real downward movement will come only when the retries failed to go above the supporting line as shown.

In the weekly chart,  DOW has also formed a breakaway bearish pattern yet to be confirmed as the week is not over. It will aim at covering up the 2 small candlestick gaps as shown.   Similarly,  a bearish engulfing is beginning to take shape in the monthly chart.

Q&A

Why not check S&P, Nasdaq and other Charts

Traders should not just refer to one chart alone for trading.  As this blog is for learning and not for trading purposes, it would leave it to the traders to do their homework.  Since there is this question,  it would be good to examine the other charts;  for example,  S&P and Nasdaq.  It would appear that both S&P and Nasdaq have been affected by the hangman in DOW.  Both S&P and Nasdaq's fall have not been confirmed

S&P

Nasdaq

Update2:  20 August 2013

After having formed the hangman candlestick,  DOW went ahead to break the 50 MA last Thursday and broke the 100 MA yesterday as shown in the following chart.

DOW has also broken 2 necklines;  1st,  last Thursday when DOW broke the 50MA and yesterday, when DOW broke the 100MA.    When DOW broke the 1st neckline last Thursday,  the volume was not high and therefore,  that Head and Shoulder pattern was  not confirmed.  As for the present neckline2,  the volume is again low as Monday is usually a low volume day.   However,  it was observed that there are many call options still trapped in the system and they will stop trading this Friday.  It is expected that volume will pick up and this would confirm the second neckline.  Once that were to happen,  DOW will head towards to test the 200MA line.

Update 3 :  23 August 2013 - Bullish Harami Spotted;  Will this reverse the trend?

After several days of down trend with DOW losing about 6% or 800 points,  a bullish harami candlestick is finally spotted.  Yesterday,  Germany announced better than expected manufacturing  PMI figure of 52 whereas US had bad economy figures with retail sale and jobless claims below expectation.  The investors cheered and started the buying spree with US investors hoping that QE will not be tapered.  But will this bullishness continue in the US and for how long?

The following chart will show that DOW has been oversold with the stochastic showing signs of recovery. A Harami candlestick is spotted but this one is not as strong as those having a much smaller body in the second day. 

As this dip is much worst that the previous ones and the Harami spotted is not very strong; also unlike the previous occasions,  the US 10 year yield is at 52 weeks high,  it is advisable to wait till the MACD histogram to hit positive before entering the market as shown in the chart.

How Fast Exactly is the Solid State Drive?

4 July 2013

Introduction

We have an Acer 4755G notebook which has a Core i5 processor with 8 GB of memory.  It is been running on 64 bits Windows 7 operating system.  After we have changed the hard disk from 750GB Western Digital magnetic drive to 250 GB SamSung 840 series solid state drive (SSD),  we immediately notice the notebook reads 6 times and writes 3 times faster with almost instant connection to internet pages.  It boots up in about 20 seconds which is 1/2 of the time taken.   This article will describe how it is done and what is the test results. 

What you need?

1.  A software transfer program;

2.  A small screw drivers;
3.  Plenty of readings.

Before Starting Work

1.  Check that your computer/ notebook's BIOS has an  AHCI interface for the disk drive.  SSD will only work well with AHCI interface although IDE interface will also work at slower speed.

2.  If the existing hard disk (referred as old hard disk)  is running off an IDE interface,  then there is a need to re-configure first the old hard disk  to run on AHCI interface.  If one should get a blue screen of death (BSOD) after changing the interface to AHCI or vice versa,  consult the following microsoft  website .

Transferring Programs from Old Hard Disk

This is the most tedious part of the work and time consuming.  It may take up the whole day.  It involves also copying the operating system.   If one has the notebook which has only one hard disk slot ,  there are 2 choices:

1.  Using SamSung SSD Magician Software 

The SamSung SSD Magician comes as a package in a DVD. Mount the SSD on an external hard disk enclosure or adaptor for  SSD drive (such as the adaptor that comes with the package if it is included).    One can also download the Magician from the SamSung's website.

If the SSD is new,  it may need to be configured first using Windows' Dsk Management tool;  otherwise,   SamSung Magician might not be able to find the SSD drive.   To open Disk Management,  goto Control->Adminstrative Tools->Computer Management,  then select Disk Management. 

2.  Using Commercial Transfer Software

Software that can clone hard disk can be used also to transfer the programs.  If one just has an ordinary external hard disk enclosure that does not allow proper cloning of SSD drives,  the only alternative  is to backup the partitions of the old hard disk to an ordinary external hard disk. After that,  replace the old hard disk in the computer/notebook with the new SSD and then copy or recover back the partitions one by one. 

If one's computer has an extra hard disk port that can offer AHCI interface functions,  one can hook up the SSD as second drive and use any transfer software that can clone the hard disks to transfer the entire hard disk program including the operating system. 

3.  Installing New Operating System

 

Some prefer to install new Windows Operating System on SSD.  Windows 7 has a program under Accessories>System Tools that will allow one to make a copy of programs to be transferred from old hard disk to new hard disk or old computer to new computer.  One will need an external  hard disk space of about the same size of the programs to be transferred. 

Before starting to install the new Windows Operating System,  save a copy of the existing program.  This can be done easily using Windows Easy Transfer.   Start up Windows Easy Transfer and select "Old Computer" to copy the programs to external hard disk.  Click the "custom" wording and in the "Advanced" menu,  check all the check boxes if one wants to transfer all the programs; otherwise,  select only the desired ones. 

The whole process may take up to 1 hour depending on the size of programs to be transferred.  After the SSD is installed with the new Windows operating system,  transfer back the programs as instructed by Windows Easy Transfer.

Things to Watch out

1) Before replacing the old Hard Disk, make sure to delete all the unwanted and obsolete programs so that the total capacity of all the partitions added up together or the partition to be copied is less the capacity of the new SSD drive;

2)Ensure again that the existing hard disk is running on AHCI and not IDE hard disk interface.if you use method 1 or 2.  When installing new operating system in method 3,  set the BIOS to run hard disk on AHCI first before installing the operating system.

Where to find the hard disk in notebook? 

The hard disk is usually hidden inside and underneath the notebook.  One would have to remove the hard disk cover for replacement.  Note that some notebook has warranty seal on the cover screws.

What to do if the SSD does not perform to expectation?

There are many reasons.  But if there is an AHCI interface,  the following steps might be of some help. 

1) Tweak the computer using available software provided by the SSD manufacturer;  for example in the case of SamSung SSD,  use  "Performance Optimization" and "OS Optimization" to optimise the performance,  then  use the  "Over Provisioning"  and "Shrink (default value)" to shrink the start up partition (which usually is c:) so that SSD will work more efficiently; 

2) Check if the TRIM function of Windows 7 is turned on by the following step by step method:-

a) Open up Command Prompt by typing "CMD" in the start up search bar and run CMD as administrator;

b)  In the Command Prompt,  type "fsutil behavior query DisableDeleteNotify".   The  result  "0" indicates that TRIM is enabled correctly.  If the result is "1" or otherwise then type

"fsutil behavior set DisableDeleteNotify 0"  in the next command prompt. This will change the result to "0" and enables the TRIM; 

3)  It may be necessary to carry out the following additional modification works:-

 a)  Turn off hibernation function

At the command prompt,  type "powercfg -h off" to turn off the function 

b) Turned off drive indexing in C drive

Click "Computer" in start button menu.  In the C: drive,  right click "properties" and then uncheck "allow files on this drive to have contents indexed.." 

c) Switch "Power Option" from "balanced power"  to "high performance";  alternatively,  to use mains power to over write the power option for computer to perform at "high performance"

To prevent unnecessary "garbage collection" by SSD and degrade performance over time,  it would be wise to customise the  "Pagefile" in the "Advanced System Setting" of "COMPUTER" from "system manage"  to 100 MB min/1000 MB max.

Test Results 

The following compares the performance of ACER 4755 before and after the conversions.

The AS SSD Benchmark software can be downloaded here.  The results shown that there are appreciable differences between the 2.   The old hard disk took too long to complete the test and has to be terminated.