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Thursday, April 25, 2019

Best World & Other Direct Selling Co in China

 24 April 2019 Update 4

Bonitas Research issued a report about Best World (BWL) on 24 April 2019.  It claimed that “BWL is a fraud and that its Chinese sales are a fraction of what was reported to shareholders".  For a single day on 24 April 2019,  BWL's stock price plunged about 9%  and lost about S$80 million in the market cap.

What is inside the Report?

The  28-page report spent about 10 pages talking about “ChangSa Best” and how “ChangSa Best” was “colluding” with BWL to transfer a sum of at least S$31 mil to BWL in 2018. It spent another 5 pages talking about their field visits to find BWL's branches and stores not opening for business or not selling goods to walk-in customers.  The rest of the pages were spent on BWL not doing online businesses,  how pyramid selling and MLM worked, It also compared BWL's products and prices to other brands. Lastly, the report  described how the 2 founders rewarded themselves with larger compensations.  This article will only cover the gist of the report. 

What is gist of the report?

The gist is about "ChangSha Best". It described ChangSa Best as "independent import agent" but not so independent as it expected.  It found that ChangSha Best was heavily linked to BWL in term of manpower recruitment,  funds and profit transfers.   It found also that ChangSha Best  was transferring a profits of some S$10.0 mil in 2018 when BWL changed its Export model  to Franchisee model.

In one of the sentences, it asked "What kind of independent party pays nearly 100% of accumulated profits upon termination of its agency arrangement? In our opinion, not an independent party”.

What can be said about the Report?

Bonitas was probably right to point out that ChangSa Best was not an independent party nor an ordinary import agent.   In fact,  it was probably the one quoted in the BWL's clarification note (dated 23 February 2019 page 3) that BWL was dealing with a "Primary Import Agent" in China.   

In the BWL's clarification note,  it never mention this "Primary Import Agent” was an independent party nor it had said Changsha Best was the "Primary Import Agent.    However, if we assume that Changsha Best was indeed the other subsidiary of BWL in China, then everything will become clear and logical.   There would be  nothing wrong to transfer funds and profits back to the HQ in Singapore after Changsha Best was closed with its role replaced by BWL(China) in 2018.  As to why BWL has chosen this “secret” way to do businesses in China is best to be explained by BWL.   It might be for tax avoidance purposes.

Why Retail Branches and Stores not for walk-in Customers?

Talking about finding the branches and stores closed and not serving walk-in customers, one will have to find separate answers as to why these branches and store were necessary in the first place under the present Chinese rules and regulation.

The original concept of Direct selling is actually “door to door” selling that requires only a warehouse where "paddlers" or salesmen can get their goods.  This was the case in China before 1999.   Then there were lots of complaint about MLM and pyramid selling.   The new rules after 1999 required all Direct Sellers to have sale offices and retail stores for convenient of official contacts. (Read  异化的店铺式经营 section)   They are actually NOT retail sale branches and stores per se. 

Here is a simplified  translated version  of the 异化的店铺式经营 section about  Sale offices and Retail Store for DS companies in China


“Distorted” Retail Sale Offices or Branches

3 months after the banning of MLM in 1998,  AVON,  Amway,  MaryKay,  Perfect99 and other 10 DS (Direct Selling) companies were allowed to  operate in China again but one of the requirement in the new regulation mandated DS companies to have Retail Sale Offices or Branches. 

In overseas,  DS service is always done “door to door” without any sale  office or store.  The idea of having such requirement is to facilitate the control and management of the DS companies.  The Authority wanted to be able to get hold of the people in charged. 

 So companies like AVON retailed their sale operate from these premises whereas AMWAY continued to operate by bringing-in also their DS sale personals.   However, both companies did roaring business under the new arrangement.  The sale doubled or tripled within a span of 4 year from 1999 to 2013.  There were about 6000 such specialty retail shop and 2000 specialty counters operating in about 100 cities by 2002.

15 April 2019 Update 3 

The Chinese Government has issued an administrative notice for the Supervision of the Health and Health care product in the Chinese markets (市场监管总局征求调整保健食品保健功能意见的公告).  

The sales of 487 health care and skin care products in China will be affected by this Governmental request to review the various “claims” of the products that DS companies are selling.  21 of these products has been identified to have the claims or the product removed (取消),  18 products are to  have the claims “modified” (调整) and 6 are pending further reviews and studies.    It is understood this is a following up action after the “100-day Action”,  starting from  8 January this year in an attempt to stamp out unhealthy promotion of the health care products.


The first batch under review are those those dealt with immunity (免疫)strengthening body health,  improve digestion system or increase bone density.  Altogether,  there are 18 different types of benefits and claims reviewed.


Among the “claims” proposed to be removed are from the direct sale of the following  products




1.  Skin or beauty improvement products  (美容(改善皮肤油分)/改善皮肤油分)

2.  Growth care products  (促进生长发育/改善生长发育); and

3.  Lactation growth product  (促进泌乳)



There are also other products in the list to be removed,  among them are health products that claimed to promote and improve growth (促进生长发育/改善生长发育的保健食品) and also those that have healing power such as those resisting tumour growth etc.   Some products will have the production stopped immediately.

About 61 products under 32 direct selling companies have been sentenced to “death” in this review. Among them are those related to medical treatments such as  those products that will lower blood sugar and reduce blood pressure etc.
 In this review,  the products of 75 companies under direct selling will be affected.


Best World has 6 products listed;   3 of them are affected.
 

23 March 2019 Update 2


If one examines carefully through this approval license given to Best World,  one could easily find out that
a)  The approval is only for product called  "皙之密" or  "Dr. Secret"
b)  The license is only for a designated area called "长沙市" or Changsha.
Changsha is a township in Hunan Province and it has an area of about 11,000 km2 with about 7 million people. 

Without any other licenses approved by the Authority,  it is understood that one would not be allowed to have Franchisees in other Chinese cities or Provinces.  Presently,  Best World has 33 Franchisees spreading all over China and only 4 of them are located in  The details of various Franchisees registered with the Chinese Authority can be found here.
There are altogether over 4,000 Franchisees operating in China.
Disclaimer:  The information contained herein is only for education and discussion purposes.  The readers are advised to check and verify the details given carefully to make any investment decision. There is no reason to suggest that any company  is involved in any illegal activities until it has been verified by appropriate authorities.

25 February 2019 Update 1

Best World International clarified that it had changed the  business model in China from Export model to Franchises model in May 2018 and this had the approval of the Chinese Authority for a product called "DR. Secret".      They disclosed the names and addresses of the 33 Franchises in China.    Best World declared that  "the Franchisees purchase the Products from them for distribution through BWL Lifestyle Centres to end consumers and independent third parties;  some of which are licensed to sell Best World products to other consumers in China. Under this model, only the Franchisees are the direct customers". 

Best World lifted its trading halt in the SGX exchange on Monday,  25 February 2018.   Its stock price plunged another 18 -20% after 3 hours of trading.   This is on top of the 17%  drop recorded on Monday,  18 February 2018 when Best World requested for the trading halt.






China is a good market for Direct Selling (DS) business.   Most the DS companies having businesses in China are reporting awesome revenues and profits recently.  These companies included Best World who had reported nearly 100% rise in Revenue for 3rd Quarter 2018.  It was also reported that Best World's premium skincare product called “DR’s Secret” was selling like "hot cake" and was reeling in about 66%  of the company's income.   The revenue from China rose about 140% in 2018 with sale of about SGD$60 billions representing about 70% of total revenue.  This article intends to find out more about the DS businesses in China. 



What is Direct Selling (DS)?


This term refers to “direct sale of a product without going through any third party”.  There are many articles written about DS and how DS differs from Multi-Level Marketing (MLM).  They can be found by simply “googling”.   MLM is one derivative of DS that allows members to form multiple tiers in a hierarchy structure.  In MLM,  members in the tiers can recruit other members and take a cut in the sale of product.   China and many other countries like Singapore and the US have banned MLM.



What is the Present Rulings in China?


China’s ruling on DS is very strict and stringent.  Among the ‘thousands of rulings” is the “one tier DS”  in which a DS company can recruit members but its members are just customers. They are not allow to recruit and  sell or resell its product to the other members like MLM and take a cut in the sale of the product.  



The other ruling is that all DS companies must obtain a license issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR)  who will administer and monitor the DS  companies' activities. Presently,  there are only 91 licenses issued over a 13-year period.   Bulk of the licenses was issued around 2015/16 when Best World got their DS license.




  

The application of a DS license was strict and complicated;  also,   the licenses are restrictively  mentioned for a designated sale area and not for the whole of China.   It usually takes many months or even years.  Because of this,  many companies started running as “Franchise ” or “Agents” of those licensed DS companies who would lease out their operating license for a fee.  Some of these Franchises engaged in “illegal MLM activities”.  It has attracted the authorities’ attention.

Enforcement Actions


SAMR has been taking enforcement actions on and off.  They started licensing operation 13 years ago in 2006. Like any other types of rules and regulations,  these rules are effective only for the initial period.  Then the enforcement becomes lax after some years of operation.  



DS Companies who were found to be violating the laws were fined but they are allowed to continue with their businesses. Their businesses would usually turn larger than before.  For example,  a company called “Quanjian Group or 权健集团旗 with HQ in Tianjin.  Since obtaining the DS license in 2013,  many of its people were fined engaging in the MLM activities.  The latest was a compliant made by  a Chinese Medical Journal  called 丁香医生 in December 2018.  That compliant described a product advertised by Quanjian that could treat cancerous cells;  as a result,  a 4 years old girl's life was lost.
 
Quanjian Group has many franchisees (专营店).  After the company's business was exposed in December 2018,  street after street of Quanjian Group's franchisees were closed down.

Recent Efforts by the Authority





It involved 13 Inspection Groups (The Groups) located all over various parts of China.   They have been asking the people for reports and feedbacks of illegal activities of DS companies.  In Tianjin,  the informers will be rewarded with RMB$20,000. The Authority would investigate and take necessary actions if necessary to prosecute the errant companies.  This operation started since January 18 2019 and has been in operation for about 40 days which is now at its  peak.





The Authority has also initiated a Direct Selling “Naked” operation where users can lodge complaints directly to the Authority via their website.   The errant  companies will be “black listed” for everyone to read.  Also inside the website,  the users can surf to find out the important information about the DS companies including their remuneration packages. Presently,  the website is still under construction. 

Other Recent Happening About DS 

1. The "Refugees" Behind Amway Earnings 

Amway is recently in the Sina News about an activity taking place by groups of people being involved in Amway Direct Selling.  According to this group,  many have been "cheated".in the process of being a member of the company. 

2.  MLM Giant SunHope

SunHope (尚赫) is another Chinese registered DS company in the recent news about MLM activities.

Going Ahead for DS Companies in China

It is likely that with the enforcement actions stepping up,  the revenue of DS companies,  especially those who engaged in “MLM illegal activities" will have their businesses affected or closed down.  Their revenue will plunge unless they carry out their work "under the table".   This will also affect those who appointed  them as franchisees or agents.  

However,  there is a Chinese proverb  saying "魔高一尺,道高一丈“.  It literally means “the devils could never beat the laws”.    Those who involve in MLM will be caught;  it is just  a matter of when and not if.

 Disclaimer:  This article is for information and  educational purposes.   Readers are advised to  conduct their own research and study to make their  own investment decisions.


Other References:  https://tinyurl.com/y2ckpcz8


Saturday, April 13, 2019

Open Electricity Made Simple


13 April 2019
# Open electricity,  electricity plans,  retailers, Singapore Power, SP
 http://tinyurl.com/y39mwl6k

What is Open Electricity?


In the older days,  electricity is always generated by PUB (former of SP Group) who will also deliver and sell the electricity to its consumers directly at fixed and regulated rates.  

About 20 years ago in 1998,  the Authority started the Singapore Electricity Pool (SEP) to "test" the workings of the market.  Real retail marketing started only in July 2001 when they allowed only those consumers having 2 MW or more power requirement to buy electricity from the retailers.  This market has since opened up to smaller consumers but only now,  they will open it to the 1.3 million households and small businesses in Singapore. 

There are about 35 Electricity Retailers in Singapore.  Many bloggers have blogged about how to choose the right electricity plan and the procedure to choose can be quite complex and complicated.   The many option available is confusing.  This article will try to make it simple.

What Being Offered?

There are not less than 10 different plans offered by each electricity retailer.   Basically, they can be divided in to 3 categories and in each category,  there may contain 3 or more plans depending on the length of the Contracts Period.  The 3 categories are

1.  The DOT Plan (DOT)
2.  The Fixed Plan (FFP)
3.  The Knight or the Owl Plan (POP)

What is the Best Plan?

This article will help those novices or layman to choose the right plan.    It is understand that 80% of Singapore's electricity consumers are in this category.

To choose the right plan,  one will need to know one's electricity usage pattern and the relationship between the electricity and the oil market.  The oil market will affect the SP’s tariff and also the electricity generating prices.   It can be very complex 

The following table briefly describes the 3 types of electricity plans:


Type of Plan
What's this?
If SP's Tariff
If Oil Price
Reason to Choose this plan


Increases
Reduces
Increases
Reduces
Discount Off Tariff Plan (DOT)
Pegged to SP's tariff @ a specific discount rate over contract period
The rate will follow SP's tariff accordingly to the discounted rate
SP's tariff will increase or decrease with oil prices according to an approved  working  formula
The SP's tariff will try to track closely to the oil price
Fixed Price Plan (FPP)
Rate is fixed constant over the contract period
No effects.  Consumers will lose out to DOT plan   if SP's tariff falls below the fixed price
The future oil price will be higher than the present oil price
Peak/off peak plan (POP)
Rate is fixed for peak hours (7:00 am - 11:00 pm) and for off-peak hour between 11:00 pm to 7:00 am)
No effects. Same as FPP plan except the effective or average rate will become slightly cheaper if consumer uses all or more electricity during off peak hours;  otherwise,  the effective rate would become  higher than the FPP plan
Ditto same as FPP except you use more electricity at night and the effective or average rate will work out to be lower than FPP
Note 1:  There are more than 1 plan in each category;  for example, choose a 3 month plan if one has no confident


The table  looks rather complicated but the following flow chart should simplify the decision making process

 (double click to enlarge)

 Something about the Supply from Singapore Power (SP)


At the present moment,  it was reported that only about 18% to 20% of the SP’s consumers have switched supply to the private retailers.  Singapore has over 1.4 million consumer accounts. 

Many SP's consumers did not know that they are paying a higher price because SP has been asked to sign a Vesting Contract (VC) with about 6 major generating companies (Gencos) to ensure there will be competition among the 6 Gencos.  What SP's consumers are paying is a Vesting Contract Price (VCP)  worked out by SP once every quarterly.  One can read more about this VC and VCP in here.    The VCP inclined to be generally higher than the market electricity price.

The Advice

If one is not familiar with how the market works,   the best advise is to switch the supplier to the DOT plan.  This is because the DOT plan will track the SP’s tariff and one will pay a rate at a discount % from the SP’s tariff.  

Note 1:   Your Electricity Retailers should show you the hidden cost if any such as "Transmission Losses" or what not including additional security deposits.  If not shown or unknown to you,  you should request for them before you evaluate and sign at the bottom line;

Note 2:   Your Electricity Bills from the Electricity Retailers should show the unit of your monthly electricity consumption in Kwh (Kilo-Watt hours).  If it is not shown anywhere in the bills,  request for it.   This should also apply to the security deposits or any hidden cost that you have paid so that it is known to you for the computation and the comparison of the electricity bills.  In case of any doubt or problem,  seek the help from Singapore Power or EMA.    You can contact EMA @ https://www.ema.gov.sg/contact_us.aspx or Open Electricity Market @ https://www.openelectricitymarket.sg/contact-us





Friday, April 12, 2019

Why Malaysia Disapproved the Use of ILS in Seletar Airport?


11 Apr 2019
http://tinyurl.com/y2yhlkc8 
# Seletar Airport,  Firefly,  Malaysia,  Singapore,  ILS, GPS ,  landing system

Both the Malaysian and Singapore Governments have reached a tentative agreement to continue and allow Seletar Airport to be used for the FireFly air service from Malaysia .    The solution is for Singapore to remove  the aircraft landing procedure using Instrument Landing System (ILS) and revert back to the manual landing system.   But Why?

What is ILS?

ILS is a instrument landing system used by many airports all over the World to guide the airplane landings.  Without it,  the pilots will have to rely on their visions which means they cannot land in bad weather if the visibility is poor. 

Malaysia used the reason that ILS will restrict the building height allowed in its  Pasir Gudang area but Singapore repeatedly said the use of ILS would not change the existing height limits of the building in the flight path. 



Going Back to Manual System?

It was a surprise for Malaysia to disallow the use of ILS in Seletar Airport because ILS is more superior and safer system to use than the manual system.

At the end,  the matter was discussed and put in place between the countries on 5 Apr 2019 with Singapore agreeing to withdraw the use of ILSin the landing procedure  while Malaysia agreeing to remove the flight restriction over Pasir Gudang indefinitely.  Meanwhile,  both parties agreed to set up a High Level Committee  to review the existing flight path agreement made in 1974.  They also agreed to jointly develop a GPS landing system that will be acceptable to both countries.

Why GPS Landing is Allowed?

It is understood that ILS is a well established but old and reliable analogue system developed just after World War 2.    GPS,   on the other hand is a relatively new system.  According to this article,  this GPS system allows aircraft with instrument approaches down to 60 metres (200 ft)@  800 metres (0.5 miles) away from the runway .   

If that is true,  the use of the GPS will allow higher buildings to be constructed at the Pasir Gudang end.  



Whether the GPS will be used in future will depend much on whether both countries would agree to work out a solution.  Joint development of a GPS landing system is a good start although the Malaysia would want to see this  kind of landing approach if this is technically feasible.




Monday, April 8, 2019

Why Singaporeans Cannot Get Cheaper Electricity from Singapore Power?


7 Apr 2019

# Singapore Power,  Open Electricity Market, Vesting Contracts,  Electricity Retailers, Gencos
http://tinyurl.com/y68n8rub

Unless one switches the electricity account from Singapore Power (SP) to other Electricity Retailers,  Singaporeans will not be able to get cheaper electricity rates.    This is because Singaporeans having SP's accounts are doing the Nation a service.   They are contributing about S$500 per household per annum for the past 4 years.

Why it is so?

Singapore has a small electricity market with just a few Power Generating Companies (Gencos).   To create an efficient and competitive electricity market in Singapore,  SP has been made to sign an agreement or contract with some six major Gencos in Singapore.  This contract is called “Vesting Contracts (VC)”.  It is for SP to buy electricity from the 6  Gencos at a fixed price called "Vesting Contract Price (VCP) to be worked out every quarterly according to a formula approved by the Electricity Market Authority of Singapore (EMA).   The  Vesting Contracts have no expiry date and can be terminated only by a 60-day notice according to the contracts agreement. 

It is understood in the effort to "privatise" further the supply of electricity,  SP will eventually relinquish its role as the supplier of electricity and retain the role only as infrastructure supporter. However,  it is also understood that there will always be a need for SP to be around to help existing consumers who would need SP's continued services.

What is this Vesting Contracts?

It is a contract signed between SP and the Gencos and facilitated by EMA.   This contract spelled out how SP must buy electricity from the Gencos at VCP for about 55% of Singapore’s electricity demand.   The method to work out this VCP will only be reviewed by EMA every 2 years.    SP will be based on the approved method to calculate the VCP  quarterly For readers who wanted to know more about how the VCP is set,  please refer to EMA’s website www.ema.gov.sg.

What’s the Purpose?

It was explained that one of the reasons for having the VC is to remove the “incentives” of the Gencos “fixing” the electricity market price by “short selling” the electricity supplies;   thereby pushing up the “pool price” in the Singapore Electricity Pool Market (SEPM) where electricity is sold at wholesale price..

How Vesting Contracts Work?

Before VP was introduced in 2004,  consumers will buy electricity from the electricity retailers at the pool prices or the Uniform Singapore Energy Price (USEP).   Say the consumers want to buy 3 MW,  they will approach Genco 1  who will supply only  2MW at pool price because that is all that he has had;  the consumers will have to buy the 3rd  MW from Genco 2 at a negotiated price.   There is no competition;  also, the pool price can be always"fixed" by the few players.    After VP was introduced,  the Gencos are bound by the VP to sell only 55% or 1 MW to the consumers.  The Gencos will have to compete to supply the 3rd MW at a competitive rate.  

Has it Worked?

It can be seen that this VCP method worked quite well before 2009 although it has benefited the  Gencos more with the pool price running below the VP.  Somehow the picture was a bit out of track after 2009 and it has gone awry after 2012.

The SP's consumers have been “subsidizing” the Gencos all these time after VC was introduced in 2004.  In the graph just shown above,   it can be seen that the orange patch is much larger than the green patch which denotes that the consumers were paying the Gencos more than the pool prices,

Are there any other Better Methods?

1.  Breaking Up the Gencos into many smaller generating companies 

It was said this is not economical as the smaller generating companies do not have the economy of scale to provide cost-effective and cheaper electricity prices;

2.  Imposing a Price Cap in the Electricity Pool market  

When there are only a few market players,  imposing a price cap was viewed to hurt or delay the decision for the entrance of new Gencos;   the setting of the price cap can also be tricky and very often,  the prices are set higher than necessary. 

3. By breaking up the generation and forcing Gencos to lease out the capacity to several operators

EMA said this was not workable.

Any Other Improvements?

1.   Shortening the Vesting Contracts reviewing period of 2 years

The 2-year review is reasonable if we have a stable energy price over the 2 year period. This reviewing period should be shortened to 6 months or even less when the energy price is volatile especially when there is drastic change in the energy price.   SP should also be asked to shorten its time of working out the VCP.   The aim must be one that will ensure the VCP will always track closely to the market price.

2.  Allowing more parties to join the VP

The contract is presently signed only between the 6 major Gencos and SP.   It will make the system more transparent and the VCP more stable if there are more participants.  Don't forget that VCP can also be "fixed" by the few "interested parties".

3.   Not limiting the Generating Capacity 

EMA allowed Gencos to have excess generating capacities for reasons to get more users to participate in the LNG  Vesting Contracts (LNG VC). This LNG VC is another instrument used by EMA to ensure stable LNG supply.  However, there was a called for EMA to limit the generating capacities after the Hyflux's TuaSpring saga as it was viewed that the excess generating capacities is hurting the Gencos badly.     

It should be noted that the consumers will get better pricing with more competitions.   Furthermore,  Gencos are not small flies or companies;  there is no need to "spoon feed" them by over-regulation that will hurt the consumers pocket.  The free market should always rule. 

 What is the recourse for Consumers?

At present,   the VC only applies to SP's consumers who are non-contestable consumers.  It does not apply to contestable consumers who buy from Electricity Retailers. By 1 May 2019,  all electricity consumers in Singapore will have the option to switch their electricity retailer from SP to about 30 retailers in Singapore. 

If consumers think that they should not do the "National Service",  they can always switch to another retailer to become a contestable consumer.  

However,  those who have signed up to be contestable consumers should not be too happy because if SP cannot provide the 55% demand,  the contestable consumer might be called up to satisfy the 55% demand and pay electricity at the VCP level.  







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