25 July 2021
Recently, many major newspapers were reporting about the 39% efficacy for the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant.
But there were no links provided for the sources. They all have one thing in common, they all pointed at Israel's Health Ministry. Lets pop over to the Ministry's webpage to find out.
The Israel Health Ministry Webpages
There are 2 Israel Health Ministry webpages about Covid. One is the dashboard in Hebrew & English; the other is the Ministry main page, also in Hebrew & English
A copy of the English news section is shown here.
But, we could not find any relevant information or announcement for the 39% efficacy report on Pfizer. What we found is a report about the 64% efficacy report on page 2. That was in 6 July.
Where Exactly is the Source?
We managed to find a source finally. It was circulated among the twitters as shown here
What's the Problem?
If one were to examine the page in detail, one could find the following problems:-
1. The period was for 20 June to 17 July; a total period of only 4 weeks;2. It referred to a method pointing at a Lancet report dated 15 May 2021.3. Its header was completely different from the header used by Israel Health Ministry. But the logo was the same though.
What's Wrong?
1. The period of 4 weeks is too short; the Lancet report was for 4 months between January 2021 to April 2021;3. Unlike the last report about 64% efficacy, one could not find any announcement made by the Israel's Health Ministry;4. The headers are not same.
Possible Delay in Israel Ministry's news
We can wait a while for the Israel's Ministry to make an announcement just like before in 7 July for the 64% efficacy. But it would appear that this is unlikely.
Any Reaction from WHO or Reputable Authorities?
So far they did not make any comment about the news report either on this 39% efficacy or the 64% efficacy on the Pfizer. There could be 2 reasons.
1. The methods or standards used are not acceptable ones. There are only the following 2 standards acceptable today;
a) The standard vaccine trial tests done for at least 30,000 patients, divided into 2 groups; the vaccine & the placebo group;b) The Randomized Control Trial (RCT) done under similar kind of controlled environment;
The acceptable methods or standards will minimize as much as possible the variables affecting the efficacy calculation;
In the Israel Health Ministry's explanation note on 7 July, the Ministry clearly pointed out their calculation is based on "occurence per time-person by comparing the vaccinated and unvaccinated people". In other words, it is an estimate under the real World situation and not under the controlled environment. There results would contain lots of unknown and variables. The Israel's Health Ministry in its explanation note clarified that it was about vaccine effectiveness and not vaccine efficacy. Here is what exactly they've said:
2. Their own experts did not believe such test reports
What Differences Between Efficacy & Effectiveness?
Efficacy is about how the vaccine or drug performed under a controlled environment. On the other hand, effectiveness is about how they performed under the real World.
Effectiveness measurement will differ under varying environments and for different kinds of people.
There will not be another efficacy measurement of efficacy for any vaccine unless there is a requirement. It must be performed under a controlled environment and not in real World.
US CDC compiled a list of 24 Scientific & Technical papers of the vaccines available in the US. There were about 7 papers from Israel. None from the Israel's Health Ministry. These papers from Israel did not even mention about the Ministry's findings.
