DOW May be Trapped inside a Channel

24 January 2008

IntroductionAfter having broken the support of the bearish rising wedge, DOW continued to edge lower, hugging against the lower Bollinger Band. It was in dangerous and critical condition when DOW's ADX rose above 20, where tradings would become more and more volatile. However, DOW was able to resist the selling pressures thus far and rebounced at the end of the last few trading sessions with relatively higher trading volume. It may be because DOW has found another support in an Ascending Channel.

What is an Ascending Channel?
An ascending channel is a set of upward sloping parallel lines that restrict the price/index movement as shown in the attached. Price/index may not always be within the parallel channel lines that show the support and resistance for price/index targets. A breakout above the upper channel line can signal continuation of an upward movement whereas a breakout below the lower channel line can signal a trend change.

Abnormal BehaviourUsually when a stock or index hugs and expands the lower bollinger band with ADX above 20, the tradings will not only be volatile but also brutal with daily falls expected to be more than 1%. However, DOW's behaviour in the last few sessions was quite abnormal. Instead of going down sharply as it should be, DOW was building up its resistances, showing bullish long tailed candlesticks with trading volumes above the norms. Such behaviour usually suggest that a support has been found and this could be the trendline shown blue in the attached.

click for enlarged view

This blue line together with the former major resistance line shown red in attached could suggest that DOW could be trapped in an ascending channel.

How about STI and Hang Seng?The following charts suggest that STI and Hang Seng, which often track the movement of DOW, are showing similar resiliency and are trapped also in the ascending channel.

Trading StrategyIf one has no vested interest in stock or equity or index market, it will be good to wait for the confirmation that DOW is:

a) Not breaking the lower channel line;
b) rebouncing from this lower channel line with ADX changing its direction from going up to going down. For those who are vested and are preparing to ride through the "storm", it is good to watch that DOW will not break the final support @ 7,500 or to buy Put Warrants to hedge for the expected losses to be incurred.

1 Feb 2009 Update :
DOW rebounced but failed to break above the 20-day moving average. It is now sitting on a supporting trendline which was inadvertently shown as the lower channel line in the last posting. The updated chart will show that if this supporting trendline is broken, DOW may found support at the lower channel line. It will want to retest the low of 7,997 on 20 Nov 2008 when this lower channel line is broken.

It is quite likely that DOW would rebounce if the Obama's $825 bln stimulus package is passed by the Senate next week.

click for enlarged view

19 Feb 2009 Update:

The Obama stimulus package did not help to boost the market; instead, DOW broke away from the rising channel. It dipped 1.19% to a new low of 7,465 which is just below the November 2008's low of 7,552. It would appear that DOW had just formed another bearish flag, which would suggest 5,500 as the next target unless DOW could regain and reclaim its November 2008's low convincingly. DOW's present position is quite similar to the one in June 2008 as shown in the following graph.

click for enlarged view

18 April 2009DOW found itself trapped in another channel after Feb 2009 as shown in the attached weekly chart. This time a bullish declining channel. DOW appears to have a bullish look with the following observations:
a) It has just cleared the bullish declining channel;
b) It has recovered the last break of the "bear flag" line (as shown red in attached chart);
c) It has also cleared 20-week average and now is sitting above it;
DOW is believed to be heading for the resistance line, originated from Sept 2008; then, it will test the upper Bollinger line.
However, there are dangers signs around, signified by the falling 50 and 100 week averages. The 100-week average, which is about the cut under the 200-week average, appears to have a dangerous look.
The COPPOCK indicator suggested that the present market is still a trader's market and not a start of a bull market where long term investor can safely enter the market.
Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movement of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.

DOW in Dangerous But Not Critical Condition

15 January 2008

IntroductionLast night, DOW lose about 250 points or 3% and fell from 8,448 to about 8,200. DOW is now in dangerous but not in critical condition. This is because the ADX has just reversed its direction but stayed below 20.


What's ADX?ADX is a acronym for Directional Movement Index, which is another very important index in Technical Analysis. ADX will tell the direction in the movement of a stock or index. When ADX is moving down and suddenly reversing its direction to move up or vice versa, it signifies a directional change in the movement of stock or index. One would expect the stock/index to move up or down depending on the changes. If ADX moves above 20, it usually signifies an accelerated movement and when it it moves above 30, the acceleration will intensify.

The following Chart A will illustrate with red circle identifying the up movement and blue circle identifying the down movement.


Why Dangerous and Not Critical?Earlier on, DOW formed many shapes and patterns. It finally selected the bearish one which is the rising wedge pattern. It then broke the supporting trendline that has been restricting DOW's movement since November 2008. Subsequently, it broke the 20-day as well the 50-day supports and presently hugs the lower Bollinger band with ADX changing its direction as shown in attached Chart B. This put DOW in a very dangerous position. However, the Bollinger band has only been expanded slightly and ADX is below the 20 critical line with the 10-day Stochastic chart in oversold region, these indications suggested that DOW was not be in a critical condition.

Trading Strategy?If one has no vested interest in stock or equity or index market, it will be good to stay sideline until the situation has improved. For those with vested interest, it would be advisable to set targets for loss cutting or prepare to buy Put Warrants to hedge or compensate for the expected losses to be incurred should there be a serious downfall in stock market. Invariably, there will investors who would want to take the chance to short sell the market or go bargain hunting during this period.

Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movment of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.

DOW Has Formed Many Shapes and Patterns

2 January 2009

Introduction
DOW re-bounced from its low of 7,552 on 20 Nov 2008 to the present high of 9,034 on 2 Jan 2009. It has gained about 1,500 points or 20% over a period of slightly over 1 month. It has moved up against the odd of many bad economic news.

Where will it move from here?
According to Chinese Zodiac, the next Chinese New Year is an OX year. It was speculated that years of OX were never a good year for equity or stock market. This has proven to be true for year 1973, 1985 and 1997 when markets plunged during these dreadful years.

Will it be true also this year?
Charts are not able to tell much about the distant future. However, the chart of Elliot Wave indicates that DOW is presently forming the "ABC waves". The Elliot Wave chart suggested that DOW could have just completed forming its downward "A wave" and presently, it could be forming the "B wave" as shown in the attached monthly chart:


The above chart also shows that DOW tested the 200 MA support line recently. If this important support line is broken, then one would expect DOW to extend its wave A movement and seek lower lows.

Can the Charts Read the Near Future Movement?
The following charts will show that DOW is presently negotiating a re-bounce and is forming all sort of shapes and patterns. It gave conflicting signals about its near future movements.

Although most of the signals are positive ones, there is one worrying signal that indicates that DOW will continue its decline as shown in the attached chart:

doubleclick for enlarged view

The above chart shows that DOW has formed 4 different shapes and patterns. They are:
a) The bottom Head and Shoulder pattern (bullish);
b) The ascending triangle(bullish);
c) The symmetrical triangle(bullish);
d) The rising wedge(bearish).

It is good also to note that:
a) DOW had broken the resistances of some of these shapes and patterns;
b) Its 20-day MA was about to cross over the 50-day MA;
c) The trading volume was low when DOW broke the resistances.

Isn't That Bullish?
By popular count, one can say that DOW is bullish presently; however, the trading volumes were quite low when DOW broke the resistances plus there were many bad news, one could not conclude that DOW will continue its way up; on the contrary, DOW may just turn bearish and continue its way down.

How's STI Doing?
With the 68 point gained last Friday, STI has broken the symmetrical triangle that has restricted the STI's movement over the past 3 months; again, this significant event was not supported by very heavy trading volume. It could mean that the investors were still doubtful about the STI's future movement.

Trading Strategy
Unless there is a trading breakout supported by heavy trading volume in the next few sessions, it is likely that STI or DOW will remain range bounced with a sideway movement or may even dip from the presently level.

It is therefore wise to remain cautiously optimistic until the 20-day MA can cross over the 50-day MA convincingly or when there is a trading breakouts supported by heavier trading volume.

Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movment of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.

Monitoring Hard Disk Conditions

29 December 2008

Introduction
Very often, one faces the problem of computer failing to start up; sometimes, the computer just hanged and may even re-start itself before it reaches the usual welcoming start up screen. Besides a virus that can cause such problem, the harddisk's condition could just be another one of such causes.

Can We Prevent Harddisk Failure?
Harddisk failure is either caused by component failures due to electric surges or by damaged harddisk media due to normal fair wear and tear. The latter appears to be main cause of all problems. One of the many ways that we can prevent a harddisk failure is to monitor the harddisk's working condition, especially its operating temperature.

How to Monitor?One can download this S.M.A.R.T software free from here.

What is S.M.A.R.T?It stands for "Self-Monitoring, Analysis, and Reporting Technology", first introduced by IBM in 1992. S.M.A.R.T will monitor about 40 different attributes of the harddisk from read and seek errors to airflow temperature in and around the harddisk.

How useful?Among the many attributes monitored, one would find the temperature monitoring most useful. Very often, one neglects the proper ventilation of the harddisk. This S.M.A.R.T software can continuously monitor the temperature and warns us if the temperature has exceeded the preset level. This would often prevent premature harddisk failures.

Besides temperature monitoring , the software can scan harddisk surface and display the results in graphs. This will facilitate the repair and the revival the harddisk. The software could also point out the data transfer errors caused by faulty cables etc.

Doubleclick for enlarged view

How to install?The HDDScan software to be download comes with installation readme notes as well as manuals for the installation and operation of the software. There are no complicated installation procedures other than having to extract the ZIP files into a selected directory.

Related articles
1. S.M.A.R.T. Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
2. HDDScan, the HDDGuru

A Period of Indecision in STI

26 December 2008

IntroductionOne will heard endless arguments about where STI will move in the coming weeks. Some will say that a plunge is imminent while others will disagree. This is all because STI has entered a period of indecision.

Progress Todate
STI has plunged more than 54% since October 2007. It has just recovered about 8% or 130 points from its low at 1,613 on 20 November 2008. It has been moving sideway ever since and is presently trapped in a symmetrical triangle formation as shown in the attached graph.

doubleclick for enlarged view

Going Forward
Presently, US has been reporting very poor economy figures; the Singapore's economy figures are not any good either. Many analysts, including Mr. Daryl Guppy, had projected selling pressures in STI although they were not too sure of the exact market movement next because of the symmetrical triangle being formed in the STI's chart.

Mr. Guppy had 2,300 on the upside and 1,250 on the downside.
What the Chart is Telling Us?
The above daily chart shows the symmetrical triangle that Daryl Guppy has mentioned. The chart is also telling us that:

Bearish looks:a) STI has formed another bear flag with its based at 1,600;
b) It tried twice recently but failed to break the upper triangle trendline
Bullish looksa) Its 20-day MA is rising and the 50-day MA, flattening out; the 20-day MA is about the cross the 50-day MA;
b) It's Stochastic has reached the oversold region.
Neutral looksa) It's volume is thinning out as it goes sideways or slightly lower;
Future MovementsThe chart also tells us the future movement; for example:

a) Heading lower when the lower trendline of the symmetrical triangle is broken.
If the last low of 1,600 support is also broken, STI will want to target for 1,250, which is the equal length measured from the 1,600 base of the flag pole to its last high. If this target of 1,250 is broken again, the next target is likely to be around 1,050.
b) Heading higher when the upper trendline is broken.
If the top of the Bollinger Band (shown dotted in red) is broken, it will want to target for the 100-day MA line. Next, it will target for the 200-day MA line which happens to be the trendline of the peak since October 2008 (shown blue in the chart)
However, for both events to happen, there must be also a surge in the trading volume; otherwise, STI might just continue its sideway movement, much like the breakout of the triangle on 9 December 2008 (shown dotted in blue)
Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movment of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.

How to Revive Faulty Hard Disk

20 December 2008

Introduction
There are many reasons why computer always hang or run slowly or sometimes, even re-start itself. One of reasons can be traced to the harddisk failure. Normally, one would repair the harddisk by recovering the bad sectors using "Chkdsk" in the "Windows Recovery Console". However, there will be times that even this method won’t help. This article will describe another method to revive that harddisk.

How Long the Harddisk will last After the Revival?
It will depend on the condition of the harddisk. If the harddisk had a crash, there is a good chance that the harddisk will not last too long before it will fail again. Therefore, it is good to make a safe copy of the important data in the harddisk whenever possible.

Harddrives are quite cheap nowaday; it will make good sense to replace rather than to repair or revive them. But if one had decided to give the revival a try, this article will describe one method.

What’s needed?
1. Low Level format software (free to download from here)
2. Partitioning software such as Partition Magic or equivalent

Step by Step Procedures

Using PartitionMagic

a) Non Destructive Method
This method will make use of the PartitionMagic to create a new partition to isolate the bad section and to use the healthy part of the harddisk.

The method will retain most of the applications and programs in the harddisk. One might have to perform a low level format describe in Section (b) when there are too many bad sectors in the harddisk.

1. Estimate where to create this partition
When performing "Chkdsk" operation, observe the progress counter and note down its percentage when Chkdsk got stuck. The following example will assume that the counter got stuck at 75% while checking D: drive.

2. Start up PartitionMagic
One would be greeted by this screen that shows all the partitions in the harddisk.




3. Create New Partition
Select to “create new partition” in the “Wizard” and after answering a few questions about how to use new partition and the type of file system, one would come to the following screen where one would have to specify the location for the new partition.

Since the Chkdsk counter was stuck at 75% when scanning D: drive and D: has 50 GB, one would like to create a new partition between D: drive and E: drive and take about 35-40% off from D: drive to make this new partition. One might have to release some space in D: drive if it is full. New partition can only be created from free and unused disk space.
In case when error is encountered during the process of creating a new partition, either try to resize or erase the new partition, then assign a smaller size of partition to isolate the faulty session,


Click “Finish” and subsequently, click “Apply Change” to make the changes. Thereafter, format the entire disk so that a drive number can be assigned to the new partition just created.
 

4. Check For Errors

Check the various partitions for errors using the utility programs available under the “operation” menu of the PartitionMagic. Resize the new partition and recheck for error if necessary.

(Note: The above example assumed that the harddisk is still working with some errors in one section. If the faulty harddisk cannot start properly, one would have to hook the harddisk as a slave. The latter is always recommended because one might have to tweak the size of the new partition to locate the faulty section and it would save the trouble of re-starting the computer to change the partition sizes)

Other Tools (Updated 1 May 2021)

MiniTool Partition

1.  Download free software from here

2.  Similar to MagicPartition,  this MiniTool software can also perform the same tasks.  The paid versions can also backup & recover data

b) Destructive Method: Low Level Format
When there are too many bad sectors or faulty sections in the harddisk, it is always good to backup the important data and perform a low level formatting. This low level formatting will always require the faulty drive to be hooked up as a slave drive.

1. Download the low level format program from here.

2. After installation, run “LLFTOOL.EXE” and follow the instruction to select the faulty drive and then select low level format page.

Double confirm the correct faulty drive before you press the button “FORMAT THIS DEVICE” because all data in the drive will be erased and gone permanently.

3. Create new partitions and reformat the harddisk as if it is a new harddisk
4. Reinstall operating system and the rest of the applications/software
Note: If one still encounters problem, one can go through the Section (a) again to isolate the faulty sections.
Related Articles
1. Repair Damage Master Boot Record & Boot Sectors
2. Replacing the Hard Disk

VIX, DOW and Market Movement

18 December 2008

IntroductionThe Volatility Index, commonly known as VIX, is a Futures stock index traded in the Chicago Stock Exchange. It is often referred to as the barometer of investors’ confidence in equity market. It indicates the investor sentiment and market volatility. A higher VIX will indicate a lower DOW and vice versa.

What happened to VIX lately?
The attached chart shows that VIX was having very volatile trades lately; it climbed from $20 on 1 Sept 2008 to $80 on 27 October 2008, a hefty $ 60/= or 300% jump, which had never been seen before since 1993 when VIX was first introduced. Then it made a double top formation and plunged 40% to the present level of about $50 through volatile trades.

(Doubleclick for larger view)

What's the use of VIX?
VIX has volatile trades; hence, it is good gauge to judge the movement of the equity markets, which usually have less volatile trades that make future prediction difficult.

Where Can I Get Free Quotes?One can get free quote of VIX from here and DOW from here.
Where is VIX Heading?
The attached chart shows many weaknesses of VIX; for example:

a) It has just formed a double top formation and is presently declining from its second peak;
b) It's 20 MA (green) is about to cross under the 50 MA(blue), meaning VIX is about to start its decline;
c) The top and bottom Bollinger bands are falling together with falling 20 MA and flattening 50 MA;
d) The stochastic is showing a “falling peak” with VIX dropping steadily into the oversold region. There are still rooms for further declines.

The above weaknesses will show that VIX is presently under heavy selling pressure. One should soon see VIX started to yield once it crosses below the double top support (red) at around $48.

According to rule of thumb, once VIX crosses under the double top support, it will target for $15, which a projection from the base double top support, using equal length measured from the tip of the double top to the base support.

Where would DOW be then?
There is no direct co-relationship between DOW's and VIX’s movement. But if there is any indication at all, DOW will move up when VIX is moving down. However, if the projection of VIX is correct with a target of $15, DOW may be targeting around or max out at 13,000. But to reach that level, DOW would have to break several resistances including the one at 200 MA, which could be a "tough nut to crack" unless DOW is supported by very good news and economy figures.

Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movment of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.

The US National Debts

10 December 2008

Introduction
The US Congress has just approved the bills to bailout the Wall street's Banking sector, then AIG, the insurance sector and now the 3 big autos in the automobile industry. These bailouts were estimated to be more than US$ 1 Trillion. One might ask, where does the US Government get all these money from?

The US National Debt
The U.S. National Debt is now well over $10 trillion. This is nearly double the debt in 2000, which was $6 trillion, and $1.3 trillion more than 2 year ago, when the debt was $8.7 trillion.

What's happened in the US? How can the US accumulated such debts? Who have caused all these debts?

The I.O.U.S.A Documentary Film
A documentary film called the I.O.U.S.A, tried to explain all about these US National debts in its 30-minute video shown attached.

A Nuclear Power Plant Proposal for Singapore

5 December 2008

Introduction
Singapore is too small to have a Nuclear Power Plant. “We must have the power plant located at least 30 km away from populated area”, said our Minister Mentor, Mr. Lee Kuan Yew, in a recent presentation on 5 November 2008. This article will introduce a nuclear power plant option that we can use safely in Singapore.

What is this Option?
The mini or miniature nuclear power plant (MNPP) that can be installed underground and underneath each and every HDB block. These MNPPs will not have the Chernobyl effect nor will they require the 30 km clearance rule.

What are these MNPPs ?
The MNPPs are small and self contained nuclear power generating plants that have mini or miniature or even micro reactors. The smallest reactor is about the size of a bath room (about 12 m2) and the largest, about the size of a badminton court (about 50 m2).



They can supply electricity from 200 kw, enough for a HDB block to about 45 MW, enough for 45,000 homes in Ang Mo Kio New Town. Together with other ancillary equipment such as steam turbines and generators, a 50 MW MNPP may need a space as big as a JTC factory or about 1,500 m2.

The advantage of MNPP is that the whole plant can be buried underground as shown attached.




The complete reactor unit can be manufactured in a factory, then shipped to site and then returned back to the factory for refueling.

The testing model is said to contain no cooling tower with minimum maintenance requirement. The residual or excess steam can be vented into the outer shell, where it will condense into water that can be collected and recirculated to cool the core. It would use no primary water pumps.

How Long will the Fuel last before next refueling?
Each reactor has a fuel supply for 7 to 10 years. The refueling can be done in the factory. The 200 kw Toshiba unit claimed to have a fuel supply of 40 years for a single block of building.

How Safe are these MNPPs?
According to manufacturer’s claim, the reactor is designed based on a 50-year-old design that has been proven to be safe for the students to use. They expect little objection from the countries to use the MNPPs.

What are the Expected Installation requirement ?
The MNPP can be installed underground and underneath any building.

Depth
The depth at where the reactor to be located will depend on the explosion power of the nuclear reactor. Toshiba recommended the reactor be buried 30 meters under ground in a sealed container so that it would not be easily reached by earth moving equipment.

Encasement
The reactor is expected to be surrounded by strong layers of steel, lead, and concrete in order to protect their operators from excessive radiation levels.

What about cost ?
The Chief Executive of Hyperion, who has about 100 orders, said "Our goal is to generate electricity for US 10 cents a kilowatt-hr anywhere in the world". MNPP will cost approximately US$25m each. For a community with 10,000 households, that is a very affordable US$2,500 per home.

When can we expect to use MNPP?
The MNPP is presently being developed and tested in US and in UK and would become commercially available in year 2015. In UK, Hyperion (Now changed to Gen4Energy) planned to set up three factories to produce 4,000 MNPP between 2013 and 2023. They have a pipeline for 100 MNPPs with a 6-year waiting list.

MNPP Accidents
MNPP was first used in the US in early 50s. Then most MNPP were above ground. In 1961, there was an accident happened in a facility, located at the National Reactor Testing Station approximately forty miles (60 km) west of Idaho Falls, Idaho. 2 people were killed and about 22 people were exposed to some radiations. The MNPP were subsequently buried to contain the damage.

Update:  13 May 2014

There are now 8 suppliers to choose from

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micro_nuclear_reactor

Update: March 2016

1.  Development of Samll Modular Reactors

United Kingdom

In 2016 it was reported that the UK Government was assessing sites for deploying SMRs in Wales - including the former Trawsfynydd nuclear power station - and on the site of former nuclear or coal-fired power stations in Northern England. Existing nuclear sites including Bradwell, Hartlepool, Heysham, Oldbury, Sizewell, Sellafield and Wylfa are thought to be possibilities.^[9]

United States

The Tennessee Valley Authority announced it will be submitting an Early Site Permit Application (ESPA) to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in May 2016 for potentially siting an SMR at its Clinch River Site in Tennessee. This ESPA would be valid for up to 20 years, and addresses site safety, environmental protection and emergency preparedness associated. TVA has not made a technology selection so this ESPA would be applicable for any of the light-water reactor SMR designs under development in the United States. ^[10]
The Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) announced a teaming partnership with Energy Northwest to explore siting a NuScale Power reactor in Idaho, possibly on the Department of Energy's Idaho National Laboratory.^[11]
The Galena Nuclear Power Plant in Galena, Alaska was a proposed micro nuclear reactor installation intended to reduce the costs and environmental pollution required to power the town. It was a potential deployment for the Toshiba 4S reactor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_modular_reactor

2.   Toshiba 4S 

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toshiba_4S



Related article

1. Safe, modular, scalable nuclear power generation
2. Clean, Safe, Affordable Power
3. The US's First Nuclear Accident
4. Toshiba's Small Fast Reactor 4S (10 MW)
5. Toshiba Builds 100x Small Micro Nuclear Reactors
6. Nuclear Power Generating in Singapore

How Much Can One Profit From a Recession?

Introduction

There are fears that market will plunge during a bear market in a recession. But a study has shown that market could rebounce and rise 25% from its low before the recession is officially declared to be over.

The Table

The attached table from a study shows 14 recessions where bear market lasted for 6 to 34 months, the longest being the “Great Depression” in 1929. The table shows the following:

a) An average return of 8.7%, if one were to stay invested throughout the recession periods;

b) A profit as high as 25% if one were to invest during the lows and take profit by the time the recession is declared over.

The table also shows that not all the recessions have noticeable bear markets and also, 8 out of 11 recessions have created another new bull market when the recession is over.

Click to View

The Comparison Chart Between Various Recessions
One can compare the performance of various recession by following this link.

Disclaimer:
Information here is for sharing and learning. It is not intended to give any advice on any stock or movement or trend of any index. If a price or movment of a stock/index is given, it is only intended for illustration. The reader shall verify the information given here before using them.