The Last Bearish Engulfing Pattern for Olam

18 December 2012

Introduction

After having created a false breakdown, Olam’s stock price continued to slide about 7% from SGD$1.50 on 6 Dec to SGD$1.39 on 17 Dec. A reversal pattern called “Last Bearish Engulfing” pattern was spotted yesterday and the reversal was confirmed today.

What is “Last Bearish Engulfing” Pattern ?

Engulfing patterns are reversal patterns. Normal Bearish Engulfing patterns will only occur at the top of a trend and Bullish Engulfing pattern, at the bottom.  The various different engulfing patterns and their trigger and failing conditions are as shown:-

However, when buyers and sellers were caught trading in the wrong direction,  they form "Last Engulfing" patterns; for example, the “panicked” sellers are selling their last stock position yesterday and thus creating a Bearish Engulfing patterns. It is true also when “hopeful” buyers are buying once more at the top, thus forming a Bullish Engulfing patterns at the top. Experienced traders will take the opportunity to either buy up the stock at the bottom or sell down the stock at the top when they see the occurrence of any “Last Engulfing Patterns (LEP)”.

However, LEPs are not exactly reversal patterns. Some chartists, after some countings, were of the views that LEPs are actually continuation patterns for 65% of the time. Unlike the normal Engulfing patterns, some traders were confused. They short or buy the stocks at the wrong time for a wrong price; as a result, there were no concerted effort to push the stock very far. Like the normal Engulfing patterns, LEPs will need confirmation candlestick to determine the direction.

Trading Recommendation

Because LEPs are not real engulfing patterns, it is likely for Olam to go as far as testing the major resistance line shown red in the attached. It is therefore not recommended to enter the market, not until the price has crossed above the major resistance line with +DI also crossing above –DI, which are signs for a full recovery.

Update 1:  28 December 2012  Last Bullish Engulfing Pattern

After having created a Last Bearish Engulfing pattern on 17 Dec,  Olam's price rose about 10% from 1.39 to 1.56 in a week.  Today,  it formed a Last Bullish Engulfing pattern at the top as shown.

The textbooks are mixed about this Last Bullish Engulfing pattern.  Some said this pattern will break up most of the time;  others said that this is a bearish reversal pattern that will break down eventually as shown in this chart.

Usually when rights issue is being issued, the stock price will fall due to price dilution on ex-Rights day.  However,  Olam's price  did not drop as if it was being supported due to prolonged down trend.  Last Bullish Engulfing pattern will need confirmation to determine the direction.

Update2:  7 Jan 2013 Last Bullish Engulfing with Bearish Harami

After having formed the Last Bullish Engulfing candlestick on 28 December,  Olam's price rose about 10% and formed a Bearish Harami on 4 Jan 2013.  It is as if the investor knew the price would fall as Temasek would not buy as it took up the remaining Rights issues.   The Bearish Harami reversal pattern will be confirmed if today is a down day and Olam's price will continue to fall and may go even lower than the last low.

Disclaimer:   Please verify the information if they are to be used for trading purposes

A False Breakdown in Olam International?

6 December 2012

Introduction

Olam was attacked by Muddy Waters who has a “strong sell” rating because Olam has accumulated debts (current and long term) of over SGD$8.0 bil. Olam counteracted the attack by raising more fund with the backing of Temasek, who has 16% share in the company.

Olam’s stock price dropped from a high of about SGD$2.00 in Oct 2012 to the present level of SGD$ 1.45. Olam was expected to form a bear flag but today’s trading showed otherwise. It went below yesterday's close with lesser trading volume.  Is there a false breakdown in Olam’s trading?

What is a False Breakdown?

A false breakout or breakdown is usually referring to stock price that wanders out of a range,  making  temporary price movement up or down but soon returns back to its original position. This usually happens when stock breaks a support or resistance lines without any support of trading volume to sustain the move.

One example is as follows

Why?

In the case of a false breakdown, the shortists either run out of fund or not aware of prevailing news.  They  continue shorting the stock until the price started to show “exhaustion” without much support from the other shortists. When that happens, the bulls will  enter the market forcing the shortists to cover their shorts. The same will happen when there is a false breakout except it is in reverse.

Example?

Olam has a living example. In May 2012, Olam’s 3rd Quarter profit ending March 2012 dropped 23%. The market took it for spin. Olam’s share price dropped about 30% from about SGD$2.30 to SGD$1.60. Unknown to many, Olam’s June report showed an operation profit of SGD$350 mil which is only 4% less than that of 2011. The stock recovered much of its losses to end at about SGD$2.10 in August.

Olam started out with a bear flag having a target of around SGD$1.70.  When the target was reached, the shortists continued shorting the price down to SGD$1.61 with 2 false breakdowns; one on 24 May and the other on 1 June. Unfortunately, there were no volume support for both breakdowns. Olam soon recovered when there was a price exhaustion,  creating a candlestick gap followed by a bullish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern. The shortists were forced to take cover after that.

What Happened Today?

With an unsuccessful attempt to push the stock price to below the last low of SGD$1.50 yesterday, the shortists made another attempt today. This time,  they managed  to push the price to close at SGD$1.45;  unfortunately,  there was no volume support again or volume was lower than the last 2 sessions.

Is it really a False Breakdown?

It is a false breakdown according to the text book. However, unlike the one in May 2012, this breakdown occurs after having broken down the long time support of a symmetrical triangle with a very heavy volume. The situation this time is different. It is likely if there is any recovery, it will have to test the long time support of the triangle which is now becoming the resistance.

 

Time to Enter the Market?

It is still pre-mature to enter the market and shore up the shares. This is because the following indicators have not shown any sign:-

a) The Average True Range (ATR) is still rising

b) The Directional Indicator ADX is just flattening out;

c) The Stochastic still hugging the oversold line and yet to recover

The price may wander down somemore with another false breakdown just like in May 2012.

What are ATR, ADX and Stochastic?

They are basic indicators that show the stock’s volatility, the momentum and the price movement respectively. ATR will rise when there are abrupt changes in the price. ADX will rise when price picks up the momentum and then accelerate.  Stochastic become oversold when it goes below 25% and overbought when it goes above 75%.

How to Monitor?

Take the May 2012's  price movement as an example. The ATR started flattening out and went down from mid May 2012. At the same time, ADX continued to rise until 1 June 2012 together with stochastic going on its way up soon after. When the price was about to recover, a bullish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern appeared after showing an "exhausted" candlestick gap.  

Similarly, ATR, ADX and stochastic together with candlestick patterns can be used to monitor and confirm if the present breakdown is false and also when the price will recover.

After Note:  One could also use Relative Strength Index (RSI) to track the stock movement.  Presently,  the RSI is showing a positive divergence,  starting to climb up the ladder.  Its performance will improve if it can climb above 30.

Disclaimer: The author has no position in Olam. Please verify the information if they are to be used for trading purposes.

Is Olam International Falling Apart?

5 December 2012

Introduction

Olam International (ticker O32 in SGX) was attacked by Muddy Water (MW) who had a “strong sell” for this counter. MW also claimed that the capital (bonds and warrants) recently raised by Olam "solve nothing";  it only prolonged the debt problem. Some market players also had this perception and was of the view that the recent Olam’s effort to raise capital had also the diluting effect. Lets examine Olam’s future from the charts.

The Olam’s Chart

The Olam’s trading chart will show that Olam’s price has been going down trend since NOV 2010.  It did not stop sliding.   Will it continue to slide?

The Big Triangle Trading Pattern

Since Dec 2008, Olam has been forming this big triangular trading pattern. The price cut below the pattern on 27 Nov 2012 when MW attacked it by saying in one conference that Olam would be in financial trouble. Though the price recovered the second day, it soon dropped below again. 

On 4 December 2012,  Olam announced that one of its White Knights, the Temasek of Singapore, was backing its fund raising of SGD$1.50 Bil. But the price failed to pickup;  instead, it closed at the day's low of 1.60,  below the triangular red line.

What’s ahead?

It is not immediately clear if Olam price is forming a bear flag although there are symptoms such as falling volume and negative MACD etc. It will be clearer if the future trading prices do not go above the triangle red line with the price,  forming rising channel or triangle trading patterns and the trading volume,  continuing to fall.

Trading Recommendation

Unless Olam can show that it can make good earnings in the future or its knights can shore the price up, it is likely that the price will tank.  This counter is only good for day trading at the moment.


Disclaimer: The author has no position in this counter. Please verify any information if it is used for trading purposes.

Insulation for Reef Tanks

2 December 2012

Introduction

Many reefers use chillers to cool their reef tanks to mimic the environment of the living corals and other ocean creatures. The tank is usually kept in temperature around 25-28C. This article will examine how much energy can be saved by insulating the tanks.

Heat Gains

One of the heat gains of the aquarium is through the glasses which have thickness varies according to the tank capacity. The thickness ranges from 5 mm for a 2 ft tank to about 12 mm for a 6 ft tank. The heat gains or energy losses will vary according to the thickness of the glass; the thicker the glass, the lesser the energy losses. The heat gain through the exposed glasses can be responsible for 50% of the energy losses for a 2 ft to about 12% for a 8 ft tank.

Energy Savings

As aquarium operates 24 hrs/day, the heat gains by the tank is non-stop over the period. These heat gains will have to be removed by chiller; otherwise, the cooling will not be effective. By insulating the tanks with ¼” thick polystyrene foam for all sides except the font viewing panel, as much as 30% of the energy can be saved and hence, the cooling bills.  The thicker the insulation, the more the energy or cooling bills will be saved.

How Much in $ and Cts?

Assuming one has a ¼ hp chiller and a 3 ft tank (36x24x24), the energy saving will be about 10% of the chiller running bills. If we further assuming that the chiller runs about 8 hour per day, the chiller kwh consumed will be about 370watts x 8 hrs/day x30 days = 88 kwh per month. With rate @ SGD$0.2727 per kwh, the cooling bill will come up to about SGD$ 24/=. The saving could be as high as SGD$ 2.50 per month.

Foam As Backdrop

This reefer uses foam to mimic the rocks as a backdrop. This arrangement will improve thermal insulation and reduce heat gains or energy.  It would be more effective if he can also seal the edges of the foam so that there will be no water movement in between the glass and the foam. 

 His tank finally looked like this

Other Relevant Sites 
tinyurl :  https://tinyurl.com/y9vs4pzx

LED Lighting Saves Energy?

28 November 2012

Updates:   This article is no longer applicable today.   LED technology has so many advances that it has overtook the events.  They can now produce LED lamps that are not only cheaper but also brighter and can save more energy than a conventional system

Introduction

Today, everyone is talking about  LED lighting. Many who used LED lightings before can  swear that such lights will save running bills. They also run cooler. This article will examine if it is true.

What is LED?

LED stands for Light Emitting Diodes. It was discovered in 1907. It is a semiconductor product. When a current passes through, it will emit lights as well as some heat. The earlier LED has only one colour, Red. Today, they are available in multi-colors. They match light spectrum of many other lightings. Some used LED lights for aquatic and reef tanks.

Are They Energy Efficient?

Lamp efficiency is often measured by lumens per watt (lm/W). Lumen is a measurement for lighting power emitted by the lamp. The earlier LED has a lm/W of around 65. This is about 4 times as efficient as incandescent lamp which is around 15 lm/W. It is still not as efficient as fluorescent lamp which is around 110 lm/W. Some manufacturers ever claimed that their LED can go as high as 160 lm/W but the United States Department of Energy (DOE)’s tests in 2009 showed that the LED lamps that were used to replace their existing lamp had only 17 to 79 lm/W.  Luxeon,  a well known US brand,  claimed their LEDs having the highest flux in the World;  they can only produce 30-40 lumens per watt.
 

Why Claimed to be Saving Energy?

Many who used LED lamps before always claimed so. They claimed to use lesser numbers of LED fittings for the same room.  Even the DIYs can tell one another to use only about 60% of LED in terms of wattage power. What could be wrong with DOE’s tests?

DOE’s Test Conditions

DOE’s explanation on the test conditions can be found here.

Its report clarified that the tests did not

a) Cover the measurement of luminaires;

b) Take account of the life maintenance

Luminaires Make a Difference?

Do a simple experiment. Use an incandescent bulb. Compare the lighting between one that has a reflector and one without. One will tell that the one having a reflector is much brighter. Similarly for LEDs.

The small LEDs of 5 mm usually have an in-built lens to concentrate the light source. 

The larger ones of 0.5 watts and above do not often have the lens as they are usually sold separately.  Many commercial LED also do not have the lens for each LED.  Different types of lens are available in the market and can be added to the LEDs to change their  beam angles so that lights can be focused in areas most needed for maximum efficiency.

Furthermore, efficient reflectors can also be designed for LEDs because of its smaller size and lesser heat emission.  Therefore, they can be much more efficient if the luminaires are also considered.

What Other Considerations?

One factor most users overlooked is the actual power consumed by LEDs. Actual power consumption will include KWs as well as KVARs. The latter is referred to as the reactive power that is not often charged in the electricity bill but will have to be accounted for when selecting the capacity of any generator.

Why?

The difference between fluorescent and LED fittings besides the lamps is the design of the ballasts.  The former uses magnetic ballast and the latter uses LED driver.  Both consume KVARs; inductive in former and capacitive in latter.

For a 30 watts T5 lamp, the fitting consumes only about 4 VAs or around 13%.

One LED driver with capacitor arrangement is shown below, the VAs consumed by this kind of driver could be as high as if not higher than the lamp itself.

Therefore,  when one measures the electric current consumed by LED lamps,  do not be alarmed as one is only charged for the KWs used.  The Power Generating Companies would not like this kind of LED drivers.  As for factories and large energy consumers where power factor is also charged,  it is not exactly a good idea to convert all fluorescent fittings to LED fittings as the power bills will not reduce by much.

What is the life of LED?

This DOE's chart showed that LED has longer life than some lightings and comparable to T5 fluorescent lamps.

 

Is it Worthwhile?

Unlike incandescents that can be hot in operation and fluorescents,  big and bulky,   cheap plastic reflectors can be supplied as a standard for LED lightings;  also,  lens can be easily added to LEDs to focus lights in areas most needed.   These reflectors and lens can improve LED's efficiencies.   

LED lightings can be energy efficient when compared to others such as incandescent and fluorescent fittings if they are fitted with proper lens and reflectors.  They can be a worthwhile investment except today's good LED lightings come with a price.

Air Conditioning Filters

25 November 2012

Air conditioner is an essential thing to have in Singapore.  Maintenance of these air-conditioning equipment will involve regular cleaning of the air filters;  also,  the coils may  require chemical cleaning to restore the cooling efficiency from time to time.  This article will introduce a micro non-woven fabric material that will help to keep the cooling coils as clean as possible and to reduce maintenance requirement.

What is Micro non-Woven Fabric Material?

Non woven fabrics are sheet bonded together by entangling polyethylene(PE) or polyester fibers. They are porous sheets that are made from plastic film and not by weaving or knitting. Polyethylene or polyester is used everywhere;  in plastic bags,  plastic films etc.  Non woven fabric has many applications;  one of which is used in mops and brooms that we used to clean the floors. It has natural static charges making it suitable for air filtering work.

Their refills are cheap and a plenty in the market. The refills will cost only around SGD$ 1/= for 35 sheets of 200 x 300. There are 2 types in the market; the other one measured only 200 x 290 can be used for smaller air conditioners.

Application

The fiber sheet is placed just before the original air filter. To stick the sheet to the filter, just use the hook of the Velcro Fabric Fasteners stapled or glued onto the original filter. The hook will “catch” the fiber sheet and secure it in place.

The author has used the non woven fabric material for more than 4 years now without any ill effect on the occupants as well as the air conditioners.

This filter shown below was renewed about one month ago. Dust can be seen accumulating at the corners. When the fiber sheet is lifted up, one can see that there is no dust on the original filter at all except along the sides that was not fully covered by the filter.

Air Resistances

One of the concerns is that the additional sheet of filter will impede air flow. The author has no measuring equipment to measure such impedance. But the fiber sheet was so thin that one can even read the words “e-ion Air Purifying System” clearly written on the original filter as shown in the photo. The air conditioner can still work at its lowest speed without any degrading in performance.

Even if there is air resistance, it won’t be as high as when the fins of the air conditioner were clogged up with dirt; then only chemical cleaning work will restore the efficiency. By then, one would have wasted quite some energy without proper cooling for some period.

Application

This air conditioner shown below has been working every night for the past 4 years.  Non-woven fiber sheet was used since day one. The fins at the coil still looks very clean.  One can even see the reflected shine on the tube of the coil when a touch light was shined at it to take this picture. So far, no cleaning has ever been done on coil.   The gap of the fins is about 1mm which is slightly thinner than a 5 cts Singapore coin as shown.

US Long Term Mutual Fund Flow

24 November 2012

Introduction

The Investment Company Institution (ICI) is the national association of US. investment companies. It  tracks many business activities including those of mutual funds. Its members manage total assets of about $13.8 trillion all over the World and serve more than 90 million shareholders. It publishes Long Term Mutual Fund flow weekly. Its publications can be found here.

What’s the Use?

The data published by ICI on the money flow of the Mutual Fund (the Fund) has been used often by many to track the general market directions. A plot of the data is shown below:-

Chart Analysis

The chart shows the Fund’s money flow against S&P. It can be seen that the Fund are quite sensitive to the changes in the stock market. The fund curve exceeded stock market curve in 2007. As the market started its downward trending, the Fund discharged its holding sharply until mid 2008 where they dumped as much as they can. At one stage, the Fund dumped more than USD$180 billions per month in total. When market started picking up in March 2009, the Fund loaded heavily. Today, they are keeping bonds at reduced level but started selling equities averaging around $15 billions per month

What Can We Learn?

One can use the Fund’s money flow to chart market direction. Be the first to load when one sees the Fund are loading heavily and vice versa.  Note that this mutual fund money flow indicator tracks better than the Junk Bond ETFs indicator described here before.

Use Junk Bond ETF to Track Market Direction?

24 November 2010

Introduction

It was said that Junk Bond traders are knowledgeable, involved, and speculative investors. Junk bonds offer higher future return than corporate investment-grade bonds. Because of the higher volatility and risk, Junk Bond traders are often more sensitive to the market movements. Let’s examine if we can use their trading behaviour to track the general market direction.

Junk Bond ETFs

The market offers 2 junk bond ETFs; they are iShares iBoxx $ High-Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and SPDR Barclays Capital High-Yield Bond (JNK). Their data can be downloaded from Yahoo Finance for analysis and tracking.

How Did Junk Bond Perform?

In order to filter out the noises, we will examine the monthly plot first as shown

HYG appears to be tracking DOW quite nicely during the period from 2007 to 2010. From then on, DOW took off and HYG was not doing well for some reasons. This chart does not tell much. It only tells that junk bond buyers were not as confident and as active as stock market players in the recent months.

Correlation with DOW

If we add a chart that shows direct correlation with DOW, the picture will be as shown:-

It is clear that though the Junk Bond traders were not as confident but they were not losing track. They hold-on to play the bonds during periods between 2009 to date except that they did not respond as fast to sell their bonds in 2008 until the stock market had almost bottomed. They also buy bonds when market is falling.

From the chart, one can tell that junk bond investors are always investing ahead of the stock market. So there is a time lag between the stock and the junk bond tradings.

Applying the Time Lag

When one projects HYG 6 days in the future and correlates back to DOW, one will find a completely different picture as shown in the attached.

 The new indicator tracks closely with DOW. It gives signals ahead as to where DOW will move next. The chart shows that the stock market is presently trending downwards but there is no immediate danger until the new indicator crosses below the zero line.

What about the Weekly and Daily Charts?

There are far too many noises to track the market using weekly or daily charts. However, one can still gauge if the junk bond investors are active although the signal will be confusing.

How to build the indicator

If one has metastock or similar software, one can build the new indicator using the following formula:-

Correl(Security("C:\MetaStock Data\sample\I\IDJI-1",C),Security("HYG-1",C),5,6);0

Conclusion

The Junk Bond ETFs can be used as an alternative indicator to track the direction. The monthly chart especially the correlation chart projected 6 days into the future has a much clearer picture;  however,  it does not track better than the US Long Term Mutual Fund flow indicator described here.

Bear Flag in the Making?

23 November 2012

Introduction

Bear flag is an interesting trading pattern. Many traders reaped profits by being able to identify a bear flag in advance. This article will help readers to identify the upcoming of this pattern and hope we all can also profit from the stock market.

What’s a Bear flag Pattern

Bear flag usually happens during a downturn when the price is below the 200-day MA. During this time, investors will lose interest and have sold away their stocks. Up to a point, market will stop “bleeding”. Some buyers will start coming back to do “bottom fishing”. Then the price would fluctuate within a range, which is often called “consolidation”. It may bounce above or drop below but generally, it will trace an ascending channel or triangular pattern as shown and price will go up slowly. The significant behaviour to watch out is the decrease in the trading volume as the price increases. The volume will suddenly jump at the end of the bear flag formation when the support is broken. The bear flag will end when price and volume again diverges as shows.  If the price breaks the support or resistance and the volume does not jump, it is likely the breakout is unreliable.

When bear flag is identified, the price will usually drop significantly below. The bear flag formation may be as short as 4 to 5 days and may take as long as 3-5 weeks. Other significant behaviours are

a) price never exceed Fibonacci 0.68 marked from the bottom of the “mast”;

b) MACD fails to pick up when recovered above 0

c) +DI of Directional Index never take off after crossing above –DI.

 

Have We Got the Pattern Before?

There are many such bear flags happened before. The biggest one just about 4-years ago in 2008. Then the author in Sept 2008 predicted that the market would fall about 30% or 800 points from 2,600 points to 1,800 point. The market eventually dropped below 1,600 points before recovering in March 2009.

The following is the chart for DOW during that period:-

Notice the divergence between the price and volume first occurring in Nov 2007.  When the first support was broken there was no jump in volume and the falls was not great.  It was not until Oct 2008 when that support was broken, the volume jumped 3 times with a hefty fall after that. The +DI was struggling to go above –DI but it never succeeded. Also the MACD never crossed above the 0 level convincingly. The target was set to around 770 points or about 30%.  There are altogether 4 bear flags from Nov 2007 to Jan 2009.

Is This Going to Repeat?

It is hard to tell right now because the bear flag has not even completed yet. However, the developing bear flag has all the ingredients; for example, the divergence in price and volume, the negative +DI and the MACD etc. One might have to wait for the price to touch the 200-day MA and plunge below the flag pole before confirming the bear flag.   Once the price rises above Fibonacci 0.618 marked from the bottom of the “mast”,  the bear flag pattern will be neutralised.  The last failed attempt to form a bear flag was around September 2011 when Operation Twist was announced.  Volume did not spike much. The one in June 2012 did not materialised because it was neutralised.  QE3 came in Sept 2012 as if investors were expecting it.

How To Trade?

It is definitely not the time to do bottom fishing. Intraday or short term trading is recommended.

Update 1 : 8 December 2012 -Bear Flag Forming

Last night, US index closed mixed.  Dow Jones closed up 81.09 points, or 0.6%, to 13,155.13.  The S&P advanced 4.13 points, or 0.3%, to close at 1,418.07.  Better unemployment reports was the reason.  However, Nasdaq went down 11.23 points, or 0.4%, to close at 2,978.04 due to poor Apple's stock performance.  The updated chart of DOW is as shown:-

The position still remain the same with volume divergence and negative MACD,  although there was a positive sign in +DI.  The RSI also gave hope of DOW crossing over the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance.  But the 50-day MA is still falling and had crossed under the 100 MA. The Stochastic chart showed overbought sign.  These are not quite in favour of DOW crossing the resistance.  DOW will have to show commitment going ahead with heavy trade volumes when crossing the line.

Update2:  19 December 2012- Bear Flag Neutralized

The quick exchanges between President Obama and Speaker John Boehner on fiscal cliff issue sent DOW back on track to higher ground this week.  The triple-digit rise, its first such two-day streak since July, seen DOW  finished at 13,350,  passing above the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance of 13,200 to neutralize the Bear Flag.

DOW made 2 attempts to neutralize the bear flag.  The first attempt on 10 December failed.  This second attempt showed considerable improvement with rising volume and a golden cross to support the cross over.  Barring any unforeseen circumstances,   DOW should rise to test the next resistance which is around 13,600.

Update 3 : 23 December 2012  Weakening Supports (revised on 25 December 2012)

The pulling out of the Tax Bill in the House by Speaker Boehner sent DOW falling on Friday to a level below the critical support of 13,200.  DOW made attempt and failed to cross the 70% Fibonnaci resistance level.

The issue posed some dangers ahead for DOW with the following signs showing up in the indicators

1.  Falling RSI ;- falling below the trend line
2.  Falling +DI and Rising -DI:- showing deteriorating performance
3.  Flattening MACD ;-  Showing diminishing hope for a recovery
4.  Breaking down rising Wedge :-  showing critical support being tested and broken with heavy volume support

The only consolation is the rising 20-day MA which now showing a Golden cross being formed after cutting up above the 50-day MA. 

Whether DOW could pick up and resume its climb to test the resistance of 13,600 will be much depend on whether President Obama can resolve the "fiscal cliff" issue before year end which is less than 7 days to go.  Judging from the heavy volume,  the danger of remaking the bear flag could become real if DOW continues to drop and failed to recover the 0.618 Fibonnaci resistance level.

Update: 8 Jan 2013 Bear Flag Null

DOW jumped 2.5% or 331 after US averted the fiscal cliff issue.  The bear flag was null and now testing the resistance of the rising wedge after having broken down on 23 December 2012 with appreciable volume.   Unfortunately,  in the process, DOW formed last bullish engulfing on 4th Jan 2013 followed by a bearish engulfing candlestick as a confirmation.  It is likely that DOW will fail the test to break the wedge and instead,  head down to test the 200 day MA @ 13,000.

 

Declaration: The author has no short position.  Readers should verfiy the information before using any in this article for trading purposes.

Selecting Nano Aquarium Chillers

22 November 2012

Introduction

There is a choice when selecting chillers for nano aquarium tanks of  around 25 gallons or 100 litres or smaller. One can choose between a Peltier chiller or a Freon Chiller. This article will show the differences between the popular brands, using 1/20 hp range as examples.

What’re the Main Difference

Peltier chiller uses an electronic chip whereas Freon chiller uses mechanical compressor to generate the chilled water. The differences are discussed here in detail.

What're the Popular Brands?

In the 1/20 hp range, the popular brands in Singapore are

1. Resun CL150

2. Hailea HC100a

3. Arctica nano DBI-038

Their specifications from the manufacturers are tabulated as follows:-

Brands	Resun	Hailea	Arctica
model	CL150	HC 100a	DBI038
Range (hp)	1/20	1/20	1/20
Type	Electronic	R134a Freon	R134a Freon
Power Input (watts)	200	1101	1651
Power Output (Watts)	150	150 (from a website)	200 (600 BTU/hr)
Ampere (230V)		0.6	0.9 (1.8 @ 115V)
Tank size (litres)	120	50-200
Flow rate (LPH)	1000	200-1000	400 -600
Weight (kg)	8.5	9.2	12
Water Connection (mm)			12 (1/2”)
Dimension (mm)	260 x 310 x 205	338x18x25	195x320x358
Estimated cost (SGD$)	170	300	800

1. Estimated from running current

The Coefficient of Performance (COP)

This figure is never available for the manufacturers. Although COP can tell if one chiller is more efficient than the other,  it will depend on the operating conditions, the cooling as well as ambient temperatures.  Also, most tests in factories are carried out under laboratory conditions where good quality water are often used.

From the manufacturers’ data and some estimation of  input power, one can tabulate the following table:-

Brands	Resun	Hailea	Arctica
model	CL150	HC 100a	DBI-038
Range (hp)	1/20	1/20	1/20
Power Input (watts)	200	110	165
Power Output (Watts)	150	150	200
COP (output/Input)	0.75	1.36	1.21
Performance	100	180	160

Assuming that the chillers are operating under the same conditions and factory tests carried are identical, Hailea 100a appears to be more energy efficient.

Inside the chillers

Stripping out the case, the insides of the chillers are shown as follows:- (click to enlarge)

Comparing the pictures, one can straightaway tell that Resun CL150 has a different configuration. It has no compressor. A refrigerating chip was named to provide the cooling. Also, it uses a plastic heat exchanger for the cool side and an aluminium heat sink with forced air cooling for the hot side of the chip. It is hard to tell from the picture if the  refrigeration chip is actually a peltier chip.

Working out COP for Peltier Chillers

Ultrasonic2 has posted in his webpage a TEC calculator to workout the COP for Peltier chiller.
Enter the various measured data such as hot and cool side temperatures and also the power input etc, the TEC calculator will be able to work out the COP.   As for the freon chillers,  some calculations will be required to work out the cooling power.

Heat Sink for Peltier Chillers

Someone in one of the forums pointed that the size of heat sink does not matter much in Peltier Chiller but this article about heat sink for Peltier will prove him wrong.

Ultrasonics2 and Shine7 have both provided TEC calculation results for their Peltier chips. Their webpages can be found here and here.   It is believed that Ultrasonics2 used the peltier for computer cooling whereas Shine7 used it for aquarium cooling.

As one can see from the following that the COP of peltier chip can vary a lot. In this case, Ultrasonic2’s 0.74 vs Shine7’s 0.54

Also noted that the Shine7’s peltier had a hot side temperature of 52C whereas the Ultrason2 had a temperature of 30C. Also,   the Delta T across the chip was lower in Ultrasonics’s case. The results  suggest that Ultrasonic2 has an extra efficient heat sink. But now, look at Shine7’s heat sink again and compare  to that of Resun CL150 chiller shown earlier (but the real one may be much larger though). 

How to Select the Right Size Chiller

Many aqua and reef enthusiasts pick up some knowledge here and there.  Some uses the one size larger rule and some just blatantly use figures provided by the manufacturers. Some suggested that chiller should be large enough so that it won’t run longer than half an hour on each start. Some preferred shorter operating time citing lesser wear on the compressor.

The correct chiller sizing should depend on heat loads transmitted into or out of the tank. There are basically the following heat losses/gains that can be found in an aquarium tank; 

1) The heat gain from the light fittings
2) The heat gain from the pump or in-line filter
3) The heat gain transmitted through the exposed glasses
4) The heat gain from the occupants
5) The heat gain through surface and the heat loss from evaporation
6) Others heat gain  such as those from internal circulating pumps, wave makers etc

As the calculation involves complicated thermodynamics and air conditioning engineering, it would not be discussed here. Those interested can read up this article.

Most enthusiasts just use rules of thumb. The thumb rule of using one size larger appear to be more appropriate because the manufacturer’s guideline often did not consider the extra heat load from the other equipment such as lights, pumps etc;  also,  the chiller will age and lost efficiencies. Then one might want to add more equipment such as more pumps in future.  Some manufacturers could also over-rate their chillers.

JBJ has a website that one can use to size various chillers.    Please note the following when using the website:-
a)  For metric to imperial conversion,  use the formula degree F= degree C * 9/5 +32 and 1 US gallon = 3.8 litres;
b)  Remember that actual water temperature refers to maximum water temperature which should be around 30C or 87F for Singapore; 
c)   A 40 watts flourescent fitting will give 50 watts of heat;  40 watts for the lamp and 10 watts for the ballast (25% for magnetic ballast, 20% for electronic ballast and 15% for LED driver);
d)  Assume full tank volume and not actual water volume to be safe. 
e)  It is still good to up one size larger after the calculation.
 
The term horsepower (hp) is often used for sizing a chiller.  One can take that 1 hp=2800 watts of cooling power.  Divide that by COP of the chiller (1.3 for freon and 0.55 for Peltier),  one should get roughly the power inputs in electricity watts.

The manufacturers appear to suggest the chiller should be sized such that the chiller should cycle on 15-20 minutes an hour for chiller to run about 6-8 hours per day. Depending on the setting of the temperature and the water flow rates, it may be normal for chiller to run for 1 hours and stay off for 2-3 hours before the next cycle.

Flow Through Vs Drop-in Coils

There was a misconception that drop-in coils are much more efficient than the normal flow through type of chiller.  However,  this is not quite true as the chiller efficiency depend much on the coil design of the evaporator and the condenser.  The manufacturers can further improve the condenser designs to make chiller more efficient;  such as providing more condenser tubes and fins with improved fan design.  However,  for evaporating coils,  the manufacturers will have to weigh between cost and efficient design as titanium which is often used in aquarium chiller comes with a price.  It is for this reason that the COP of aquarium chillers are never better than window airconditioners.  The following manufacturer's data will show that the amperage drawn for both flow through and drop-in chillers are identical.

Conclusion

Peltier chillers are less efficient but they cost much less. An economic will have to be worked out before choosing the right chiller. On the other hand, Freon chiller may cost more but on the longer term, it will cost less because of higher COP.

Other Reference Sites
tinyurl : https://tinyurl.com/y7p6tev3