16 June 2021
Many people can't make up their mind. There are too many horror stories told about the Covid vaccines. Stories about how people died after getting vaccinated. Stories about long term effects. There are just no good answers. Many choose to wait at the side line. This article will try to help. It will analyse and compare the odds of getting vaccinated and not vaccinated. Hopefully, it will help someone.
Vaccine is Safe and Effective
This slogan has been used all the time. It really makes no difference. No one can be 100% sure there is no long term ill effect. There are also the serious adverse effects requiring hospitalization & even death. But if one knows one might have 20 times higher chance of getting infected, what would one think?
20 Times Higher Chance?
To work this out, one must refer to this formula often used to work out the vaccine efficacy
Using the above formula, one could easily work backward to find out the relationship between ARU & ARV, the attack rates of unvaccinated and vaccinated respectively Assuming the vaccine efficacy or VE is 95%, the ARU will be "1/(1-VE)" times of ARV or simple "1/0.05" of ARV or 20 times of ARV. In simple words, the attack rate of those unvaccinated will be 20 times higher than the attack rate of those vaccinated. Even if we were to assume the efficacy is 50%, the unvaccinated would still have 2 times the chance of getting infected.
What about the Serious Adverse Effects & Death?
It is true that there are people having serious adverse effect such as swelling, high fever. Some have to stay in ICU after taking the vaccines. Some died. The Authorities and manufacturers will never admit the deaths has anything to do with the vaccine.
Let's not talk about whether the claims are true. Let talk what if one gets infected. What are the chance of one would get hospitalized or one would end up death?
What are the odds of Hospitalization and Death?
The medics are telling us that once we have been infected, a person of age around 20 will have about 1% chance of ending up in a hospital with a severe sickness. This risk is higher for older people. For example, there is 8% chance for people in their 50s and nearly 19% chance for those over 80. (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-odds-hospitalization-death-covid-steadily.html)
As for the death, the medics said young people has an odd of about 0.031% and more than 7.8% for people over 80.
The Economist has this interesting interactive chart showing the risk % of male and female for various age group (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator)
The Economist has a model about estimating the odds of hospitalisation and death (https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covid-19-model-estimates-odds-of-hospitalisation-and-death)
How the Odds Compared?
Every COVID-19 vaccine must undergo 3 stages of clinical trials under controlled condition to ensure accurate measurement. The trials are required by World Health Organization (WHO) and/or any country before they approve the vaccine for emergency use. The sample size must be more than 30,000 in the Phase 3 trial.
In these trial reports, the various safety and vaccine performance are recorded, determined & evaluated. The vital information about some vaccine brands are tabulated as shown
Links for Pfizer Trial Report: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577
Links for Moderna Trial Report: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2035389
Links for J&J Trial Report: https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2101544?listPDF=true
One can see that in the vaccinated cases, Those having Serious Adverse Events requiring hospitalization is only 0.53% in average among the 3 vaccines and those deaths accounted for only about 0.013% average. Those for Platebo cases where saline water was used instead of vaccines, the infection & death cases are slightly higher. Of course, the vaccine manufacturers claimed those deaths got nothing to do with the vaccines.
Now if we were to consider that the unvaccinated have higher chance of catching Covid and assumed that the Vaccine efficacy is only 53% (or 2.1 times ARV), we could see that the odds of unvaccinated has increased by nearly 30% straightaway. The males with age 80 and over will have over 60% chance of landing in a hospital bed and 25% chance of meeting a death. The female will have 44% & 15% respectively.
What will happen after the Covid Recovery
One in 10 recovered Covid-19 patients had persistent symptoms six months after their initial infection, a study led by the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID) has found.
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