Is It True Those Vaccinated Having a Better Chance of Survival Against Covid Variants?

There are lots of arguments about the Covid vaccine isn't good.  Besides not knowing if there are long-term effects of taking them,  many argued that those vaccinated are also having more infections.  More have landed up in hospitals as evidenced by this chart published daily by the Singapore Ministry of Health (MOH). 

Isn't that Proves Vaccine is not Good and Effective?

It is very true if one is looking at those numbers.  More are infected will mean vaccines are not effective.  People require oxygen and ICU supports will mean vaccines are not necessarily working.

This is not true if one analyses further to find out why.    It is due to the following reasons; 

1.  More Singaporeans are now vaccinated and therefore,  more will be infected;

2.  Vaccine protection will depend on one's physical condition.  The elderly ones will like to be infected even if they had the full doses.  Most of them landed in the hospital are either weak or reported to have underlying diseases;

3.  Most elderly ones are already fully vaccinated;  

4.  Bulk of those serving customers in markets, stalls, and counters must have been vaccinated under a certain requirement.  These people are constantly exposed to Covid infection.  Their chances of getting the infection are higher;

These factors have distorted the infection rate of the vaccinated and unvaccinated.  There are also other factors as illustrated in this article.

How Do We Judge?

If we must judge by vaccine effectiveness against catching Covid,  we must make sure they are compared fairly using the correct methods to minimise the variables,  the unknowns,  and the biases.  This article has some examples.  If not,  we could only compare how they perform after they have been admitted to the hospitals.   Hospital records are usually more reliable.

How They Perform in Hospital?

We can compare them in terms of attack rates which is base on the following formula:

The terminology is explained in this wiki.

Using this formula,  we can draw up the following 2 charts by collecting the real World data published by MOH.

Chart 1: Attack Rates of Severely ill (O2 +ICU)

This chart shows the attack rates of vaccinated and the unvaccinated, who are severely ill and required oxygen or ICU support. The data is extracted from Figure 7: Local Cases in the Last 28 Days by Vaccination Status & Severity of Condition.

Chart 2: The Attack Rates of Death

This chart shows the attack rates of vaccinated and the unvaccinated who have left the World. The data is extracted from Figure 7: Local Cases in the Last 28 Days by Vaccination Status & Severity of Condition.

We can that those unvaccinated are having worst performance in hospitals.  Many have lost their lives.

What about the Recovery Rate?

There is no such recovery rate formula for the 28-day fixed period as given by MOH.  But we can define it as Admission/Discharge rate as follows:

We can then come up with this chart that shows the hospital admission rate and the discharge rate of those infected people.

This chart clearly shows that when the cases in the KTV lounge broke up on 13 July,  most of the admission were either not vaccinated or having one dose.   When the cases in the Fishery market broke up on 18 July,  many full-dose people got infected.  This is because most of the people in the stall owners in the market were required to be vaccinated.  The other observation is that vaccinated people were discharged very quickly from the hospital.    

This other chart shows the same but in terms of numbers still remaining in the hospital for the 28-day interval.   It clearly shows that the number of discharges is much faster for vaccinated people.

The charts shown in this article is updated daily here