What could have caused UK to Remove Face mask rules and other Covid Control Measures?

20 January 2022

The UK's Prime Minister, Mr Borris Johnson, said that face-covering in public places and Covid passports will not be mandatory in England from next Thursday or from 27 January 2022.

The UK's Prime Minister also said the government would immediately drop its advice for people to work from home.

He said the scientists believed the Covid wave had peaked in England.  They said they have done an infection survey recently.

What's the Situation in the UK Today?

The UK has a population of about 67 million.   The COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on the UK in 2020 and 2021. 

Here are  some statistics about Covid-19 in the UK

1)  Confirmed cases

There were 108,069 new cases on 19 January 2022, and 652,469 people in the last 7 days. This shows a decrease of 386,031 compared to the previous 7 days.

2)  Death

There were 359 new deaths within 28 days of a positive test for coronavirus reported on 19 January 2022, and 1,865 people in the last 7 days. This shows an increase of 141 compared to the previous 7 days.

3)  Admission to Hospital

There were 1,752 new hospital admission on 15 January 2022, and 14,927 people in the last 7 days. This shows a decrease of 770 compared to the previous 7 days.

How do these compare?

The UK's infection rate has begun to reduce about 2 weeks ago.  But this rate is not that low when compared to other selected countries which were attacked by Covid in 2020 as shown in the following chart. The chart shows that UK's 7-day rolling average rate is now about 1,500 infections per million people lately.  This is about 50% down from the peak of about 1,600 infections per million on 5 January.   

As for the death rate,  UK's death rate has increased 4 times.   It is not low either when compared to other countries.   The death rate was 1.08 per million people on December 29.   It was about 4.0  on 18 January 2022 as shown in the following chart.

Now,  what made the UK Government thinks that the Covid situation will not be serious and why did they suddenly relax its Covid control measures?

Why?   

The one reason that we can justify the UK's view is that Covid is no longer considered to be a serious and life-threatening disease as compared to other diseases in the country.  

If we study the following chart carefully,  we will find that the UK has the lowest "Excess Mortality rate" among the selected countries.  This rate is about 100% lesser than what they have gone through in early 2020 when the rate was about 107% as shown in the following chart.  

Then, the UK could have experienced the worse,  and the present excess mortality rate of 5% is nothing compared to those dreadful days.   This is like one has seen the big devil before,  one is no longer afraid of the smaller devil which is "100%" smaller.

According to the definition in epidemiology,   "Excess Mortality"  is the number of deaths from all causes during a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under ‘normal’ conditions.   In other words,   the UK Government is NOT considering Covid as dangerous as the other diseases now prevailing in the country. 

What about the Covid Case Fatality Rates (CFR)?

The UK presently also has the lowest case fatality rates (CFR) compared to other countries.  The case fatality rate measures the number of deaths against the Covid Infection cases.   If CFR is low and the infection is still high,  people would be lesser worried about the spread of the disease.

Conclusion

The UK will be taking a very bold step forward.  They assumed that Covid is no longer as dangerous as it used to be;  also,  it is not more serious than other diseases now prevailing in the country.  

Quite sure many countries will be watching closely what will happen in the UK in the future;  they might want to follow suit if the UK's did not experience any conditions worse than before.

Update:  21 January 2022

Estimating the % of  Immunity