This was the picture taken down by a forumer in the last few seconds during the 5-minute daily price settlement period on 31 August 2023.
click to enlarge the picture
The picture shows that the trading on SembCorp's share was very active during the last trading minute. The price at the closing time of 5:00 pm was S$5.44 and there were over 40 million shares placed at the price of S$5.36 just seconds away from the end of the 5-minute settlement time. This is a drop of S$0.08 which is about 1.5%. At the end of the settlement time, the closing price for the day was S$5.35 with a total trading volume of 76,948,000 shares which is a record-breaking trading volume since 29 May 2020.
According to historical data, SembCorp had a trading volume of about 90 million on 6 June and 115 million trading volume on 29 May 2020.
Why high trading volume in 2020?
May 29 2020 was the time when SembCorp was delisted from MSCI Singapore Index
June 9 2020 was the time when SemCorp subscribed up to S$1.5bn of rights shares in SembCorp Marine (SMM) without any cash outlay. It was estimated that SembCorp holders could get substantial benefits from the recapitalization of SMM.
Takeaways
1. The listing and delisting of any stock in any index would bring about an S&P phenomenon in which there will always be a boost in trading volume;
2. The price of the stock may rise or fall depending on the condition of the prevailing market or the index;
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29 August 2023
SembCorp to be listed in the MSCI index
There was an announcement that SembCorp
will be listed in the MSCI index on 1 September 2023. This news had excited many traders. Some forumers said that the listing would lift
the trading sentiments and cause SembCorp's price to go up. However,
some forumers were not so optimistic.
This article will try to examine how the listing of SembCorp will affect SembCorp’s
price before and after it has been listed on 1 September 2023.
What is the MSCI index?
MSCI index, also known as the Morgan
Stanley Capital International Index, is a widely recognized market benchmark
for global equity markets. It provides investors with a comprehensive snapshot
of stock market performance by tracking the performance of a specific set of
stocks or sectors in various countries.
It plays an important role in attracting foreign investment.
How will it affect Newly listed stock?
Those stocks newly listed in the MSCI
index will experience an increase in demand and trading volumes and the price
of the stock will be affected. Many
global fund managers and International players often use the MSCI index as a guideline for allocating
their investment portfolios in different countries. They
might also want to be involved in the trading activities of the MSCI-listed stocks
for various reasons, such as window dressings to boost the financial reports.
Will the price go up after being
listed?
The
inclusion in any kind of index will invariably lift the trading sentiments and may
also provide a temporary boost from retail buying, especially those from International buyers
who are trading the index. This phenomenon is called the “S&P phenomenon”.
There
is always a tendency for the stock price to temporarily rise following the
announcement of its addition to the index.
Did this S&P phenomenon Happen?
The answer is Yes. It did happen on 7 August 2023 which is about 1 week before the actual announcement. Then SembCorp’s price jumped about 9%.
Although the actual announcement was on 14 August, there were already some discussions in some
forums about the MSCI inclusion way back on 7
August 2023. Nonetheless, on the day of the announcement on 14
August, SembCorp’s price dropped about
2% as shown in the following plot
Will SembCorp’s Price go up after 1 September?
This will be anyone’s guess. Presently,
the MSCI Singapore’s performance is not as good as the other global MSCI as shown
in the following picture
The gross return since 1994 is only about half of the other global index
What about the Future of MSCI
Singapore?
The future of MSCI Singapore does not look too bright either from the following chart.
We are seeing many dead crosses littering all over the chart. In the latest week, we saw the 20 MA and 100 MA crossing below the 200 MA and also the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA. The chart shows us that MSCI Singapore will be under tremendous pressure to recover from the recent fall.
Given the above, we are not optimistic that SembCorp’s price
will leap and bounce after 1 September.
The situation may improve if the global equity market turns for the
better in the next quarter.
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