How Best One Can Trust Analysts’ Earning Estimates?

12 August 2018

One often hear this stock market slang during every earning seasons;  “The company has beaten or its earnings has exceeded consensus’s estimate with a surprise”.     This article will tell why this happens so often at the Walls Street.

Earning Surprises

 One could always find this kind of table in the web and very often,  the list of companies with “surprise” positive earnings is always longer than the negative earnings .

Why?

There is usually only one answer i.e. the Analysts have under-estimated the earning results. 

How could that happen?

Lets examine one of the earning summary report by Lippe Alpha Insight as shown below,  one will notice that the companies are always reporting negative EPS when they make preannouncements.   These preannouncements by the companies will affect the Analysts’ estimates as no Analyst has better knowledge about the operation  than the companies.

Could this Just Be a Coincident for Q3 2018?

FactSet,  an organization who provides  financial data and analytics for  investors,  has this chart in  their web page

 One can see that there is a consistent pattern for most companies to provide negative preannouncements.    Note that not all companies will make preannouncement but those who did,  always do it with a purpose to get better stock prices.

Is This Fair?

Obviously,  not fair to the investors.  But there are no hard rules for such  preannouncement.  Moreover,  the companies are said to provide the  estimates to their “best knowledge”.   The market is now so used to this pattern of reporting that Analysts and investors are comparing  which year the market has the most positive preannouncement issued by the companies. 

Should we be concerned?

Most investors have learnt  not to trust fully the Analysts’ earning reports.   However,  there are many investors still rely on the Analysts’ report to buy stocks particularly those investors who  go after “growth stocks” rather than “valuestocks”    If these investors were  not careful in sorting out the genuine and accurate  earning reports from the bad ones,  they can be taken by surprise and lose a lot of money.

What Should We do?

To protect our interest,  always take stock market reports especially the earning reports of the Analysts as reference and confirm the earnings with other form of market reports or other reports  from other companies.  Do not just trust the market report from one company or Analyst.   Read through the company’s financial statements especially try to decipher  how the company can get such good earnings.

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A Warning Sign for Stock Market?

1st August 2018

NASDAQ fell about 4% after reaching its all time high of 7,932 on 25 July 2018.   It may appear to many that this is just another rotational play where investors are selling away winning stocks and shifting their money from one segment of the market to another especially when NASDAQ has just reached its all time high.  There is nothing to worry about.

What’s Behind NASDAQ’s  Drastic Sell Off?

There are many reasons.   One of the reason is that the US investors were going more for  “growth” stocks which are subjected more to speculation as they are often  “fueled” by news of future earnings or growth.   The US investors has shifted their portfolios more to buying "growth" stocks rather than "value" stocks.

What is Growth and Value  Stocks ?

Growth and Value are two fundamental approaches  in stock investing.  Growth investors will buy companies or Growth stocks that offer strong earnings growth while Value investors will seek undervalued stocks or Value stocks that has good fundamentals.

How to know there is a Shift?

The shift can be seen from the following chart that compares the trend of S&P 500 Growth ETF( IVW) and the S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE).   The chart clearly shows that investors shifted from Value stocks to Growth stock after mid 2015.   The shift is more pronounce in the last leg between 2017 and 2018.

This shift has unfortunately created a market that is  extremely sensitive to news and prepared to respond rapidly.  When growth-stock investors become disappointed with a company, they would   dump  the company's stock and proceed to buy the next exciting company.  

On July 29, 2018,  almost all the growth stocks  like   Facebook,  Apple,  Amazon,  Netflix,  Google and Alphabet in NASDAQ and S&P that have been sold off .

 Are There Any Sign?

Analysts who tracked closely the “Value/Growth” ratio of the US market are showing us the following chart

With courtesy of the following article

The chart plotted the value/growth ratio of the US market in the last 10 years between 2008 and 2018.   It shows that the growth/value ratio,  last peaked around mid 2008,  peaked again recently with investors buying 4 times as much “growth” stocks than the “value” stocks.   A "near peak" occurred around mid 2015 (Point A above) 

Do We Need to Worry?

It is quite common to see market selling off especially when NASDAQ has just retreated  from its recently peak.   It is also common to see investors adjusting their portfolios,  rotating between one segment of the market to the next segment.  

However,  if we examine the above Growth/Value chart closely and compare the happenings to the DOW chart,  we can see that the peaks or near peaks of value/growth ratio occurred around the time when market took the plunge as shown in the following chart.

What the Market Was Telling Us?

On July 26, 2018,   Facebook had the biggest  single day loss of about USD$120 billions in US history.  Mark Zuckerberg lost more than USD$16 billion as a result.

S&P’s market cap shaved off around USD$2 Trillion since all time high in 2018.   The 5 big companies lost a total of USD$330 billions altogether since their highs.

 

S&P 500 lost $2 trillion in market cap since all-time high from CNBC.

In Conclusion

While it all appears fine with markets started to stabilise and even recovered some of its losses,  we mustn’t be too complacent with the market because

1.  The investors have shifted from value stock to growth stock  since mid 2015. This is especially so,  after Trump was elected to office in Jan 2007.  Unfortunately,  this shift has increased the risk of a market plunge as growth stocks are often fueled by speculation of future earnings and growth;

2.   Studies showed that the Grow/Value Ratio has again reached another peak since the last market plunge in 2008 about 10 years ago;

3.  The market experienced tremendous price shock on July 26,  2018.  It resulted big investors having to lose a lot of fund and money.   It is not known how well  they  could handle this market shock.

Disclaimer:  This article is for information and  educational purposes.   Readers are advised to  conduct their own research and study to make their  own investment decisions.

References
tinyrul : https://tinyurl.com/ycfewutf

Are Stock Markets Approaching the “Valley of Death”?

26 July 2018

Many investors are watching the yield curves of US Treasury carefully.  The trend is worrying as the yield curve has flattened over the recent months,  approaching the triggering point where another economy recession is in the making.

What is Yield Curves?

Simply,  it is a line that plots the interest rates (which is also the “Yield” when it is referred to Bonds or Treasury Notes).  When interest rate rises,  so will the yield of the Treasure Bonds or Notes.  Normally,  the yield is lower for the shorter maturity bonds or notes and higher for longer maturity type.

More about yield curve in here

Why Worry About Yield Curve?

Government Treasury Bonds or Notes are known to be investment safe heavens because they are  “backed” by the Government.  During good times,  investors will buy and keep Bonds especially those with longer maturity such as the 30-year bonds because they are cheaper and have higher yields.  During bad times,  investors will get worried about the economy.  They will sell away their Bonds or Notes even those with shorter maturity such as the 2-year or 10-year Notes.   As a result,  the yields of those with shorter maturity will rise.  The yield curve will gradually flattened and eventually,  inverted if the economy is getting worse.  Yield curves are often used to predict the condition of an economy.

 

Present Yield Curve

The present yield curve has been gradually flattened  since Trump took office from end 2016.  During this period,  Federal Interest Rate rose from 5 times from 0.75% to now 2.0 %.

Should the rate continue to rise,   one would expect the yield curve to be flattened further.

Trump Worried About Fed Rate Hikes

Trump openly expressed concerns about the Federal Rate Hikes recently as Fed mentioned that there would be 2 more rate hikes before the end of the year.

 

https://www.scribd.com/document/384820045/Trump-Worries-That-Fed-Will-Raise-Rates-Two-More-Times-This-Year-White-House-Official

As a result,  the implied probability of the rate hike in Aug 2018 collapsed and dropped from over 90% to almost nothing.  DOW  celebrated the  last 3 days with a rebounce of over 300 points.  

 Why Fed Has to Hike Rates and Unwind its Balance Sheet

1.   Fed hike rates because it sees the US inflation rates have been rising over the last 12 months from 1.7% in Jan 2017  to almost 3% in Jun 2018;

2.  Fed also sees the market is flooded with liquidity and this caused market growth to almost stagnant with Long Term Corporate Debt rising almost 50% since they introduced QE;  meaning,  more and more companies are borrowing money to finance their business with little or no future growth registered.    Fed has to reduce the risk and pull out the liquidity by shrinking its  balance sheet.

 Going Ahead

1. Where are we?

This 30-year to 10-year yield index clearly shows that the market is ready to approach the phase that  will trigger another economy recession;

2.  Will US be able to arrest the problems and reverse the situation?

Fed and the Authority including Trump are obviously  aware of the economy slow down and do what they can to arrest the problem.  They cut tax  and introduce Job Acts which are expected to add another USD 1.5 Trillion to the present debt of  more than USD 21.0 Trillions.

https://www.scribd.com/document/384823222/Tax-Cuts-and-Jobs-Act-Will-Cost-1-5-Trillion-Committee-for-a-Responsible-Federal-Budget

The tax cut and Job Acts are able to help the economy but it is unlikely to change significantly the fundamental conditions of the present US economy which is fueled by debts.

A Trade War was also planned  to boost the US's export and reduce the US's deficit so as to arrest the rising debts;  however,   many Analysts are skeptical about the result and some said the US economy might not survive the trade war.   This is because imposing tariff  in a trade war is equivalent to raising taxes on the goods.

Unless there is a change fundamentally to improve the economy,  it is unlikely that above measures will arrest the problems and save the economy.

Can the US economy survive a trade war? from CNBC.

In Conclusion

We are now approaching the "Valley of Death".

Disclaimer:  This article is for information and  educational purposes.   Readers are advised to  conduct their own research and study to make their  own investment decisions.

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Reference
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Wall Mounting LCD/LED TV

26 July 2018

https://tinyurl.com/y8s329mb

It is common for vendors to include installation cost when buying TVs from the Supermarket.  It is also common for us to buy TV online because it is always cheaper.   However,  many online vendors are just importers looking for quick sale.  They do not often include cost of installation which may cost around SGD$100.    One could save this cost if one could DIY the installation.

What's Needed?

To wall mount TV,  one must have at least the following

1.  An impact drill and drill bit for drilling holes in the wall;
2.  The right size of TV wall mounting bracket
3.  Screw driver
4.  A water level gauge
5.  4 Nos Mounting screws to match TV's mounting hole;  usually M6 or M8 screw
6.  4 Nos of 6 mm x 80 mm masonry screw and 4 Nos raw plug.  

How to Install and Mount the TV?

The following video gives good details about how to install and mount the TV.

 What are the other Advice?

 In addition to follow the steps shown in the video,  it is good to take note of the following:

1.  Purchase a metal or stud detector.  This is advisable as most apartments nowadays have concealed water and electricity pipes in the wall.   Use this detector to locate the concealed pipes and live wire before starting any wall drilling.   This metal detector is available from any hardware store or online for less than SDG$20/=

2.  For large TV more than 40",  it is advisable to get a helper to mount the TV.   Note that Xiaomi TV4 such as the 55" TV is  very thin.  The screens can be easily damaged if they are not handled properly

3.  Make sure the mounting screws are of the correct sizes.  The mountings of Xiaomi TV should comply with VESA standard in which the screw sizes,  distances and depth of mounting holes should be of standard size.

VESA Standard

If the TV is complying to VESA standard,  one could use the following specification to determine the size of screws ,  depths and the width of the mounting holes

The distance between the holes,  the number of holes and the other details are also standard for various sizes of TV as shown below

MiTV Mountings

MiTV's Mountings do not quite follow strictly the VESA standard.  Various sizes have different holes and dimension.   Some models of the same type  also have difference dimensions.   It will be hard to find the correct wall mounting without knowing the actual specification.  One could try to use universal wall mounts that are designed specially for TVs that does not follow the VESA standard.  These universal mounts usually come with various type of mounting holes and some are adjustable to suit various size of TV mounting holes.

How to Remove Old Television from the Wall?

It is always good to get a helper to dismount the TV from the wall as some designs of the older TV bracket might have nasty hooking method.   For most TV mount of the bracket type as shown,   just lift up the TV from the hook and remove the TV.

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Selecting Air Conditioners

24 July 2018

Jump to 

1) Update: 15 December 2021: Straight payback for Added Cost

Air conditioners are common household items nowadays in Singapore.  There are many different types and brands in the market and selecting the right type can be a headache for some,  particularly those new apartment owners. This article will help these users understand the various type and main differences between them so that they could select the correct type.

Types of Air Conditioners

Generally,  air conditioners for the resident units can be divided into window air conditioning units and split air conditioning units.   

Among the window units,  there are the window-mounted,  wall-mounted window unit, or casement window units. 

Among the split air conditioning unit,  there are single split or multi-split air conditioning units.  Then,  there is also a ceiling-mounted type which will not be covered here.

  Differences Between Window Unit or Split Unit Air Conditioning 

Detail Descriptions	Window Units	Split Units	Multi Split Units
1.  Type	The cooling and compressor or condenser units are integrated	The cooling and compressor or condenser units are separated and linked by copper pipes	It is the same as Split Units except up to 5 Indoor units can be connected to one outdoor unit
2.  Installation	Usually installed under or next to the windows,  at arm’s or lower than arm’s level.	Usually installed above the window or at the ceiling with outdoor units on a ledge or stainless steel support just outside the windows	The indoor units are connected to the outdoor unit via copper pipes through a control valve integrated with the outdoor unit
3.  Pipings	Not required	Insulated pipings are usually hidden inside PVC trunking running along the walls	Same as Split Units
4.  Power point	Required	Required with additional wiring for outdoor units running together with pipings in trunkings	Same as Split Units
5.  Noise control	Can be quite noisy	Only the outdoor unit runs a bit noisy.   Indoor units are rather quiet.	Same as Split Units
6.  Cost	About 30% cheaper than split units	Total cost would be cheaper than multi-split	Total cost would be more expensive
7.  Energy Consumption	For the same type of compressor i.e. inverter vs inverter,  cheaper to operate	Higher consumption because of piping thermal and pump head losses.  Losses in pipe around 10 watts per metre run.	Energy consumption can be high if long pipings are required;  also,  the control valve may not control refrigeration flow properly if the valves are faulty.
8.  Verdict	Cheap and efficient for the same type except the operation is noisy	Good only when one has adequate space for separate outdoor units	Can save space of the outdoor unit

 

 What to look for When Selecting  Efficiency Air Conditioner?

One of the most important factors in selecting an air conditioner is based on energy consumption or how much electricity the air conditioners will consume.  In Singapore,  it is mandatory in some countries that each air conditioner unit must have the following energy label so that the consumers can choose the right air conditioners.  Naturally,  the more the “Ticks”,  the more efficient will be the unit but for the higher the cost.  The consumers can also compare the annual energy cost which is specified in the label before they buy the right type of air conditioner. 

 Inverter vs Non-inverter

Air conditioners with "Inverter" are generally able to save more energy than the "Non-inverter air conditioners.  This is because the inverter air conditioner has load capacity controls that can control the speed of the motor to respond to the air conditioning load.  If the load is high,  the motor will run at full speed;  otherwise,  it will reduce the speed to save energy.   The non-inverter control can only start and stop the motor between high and low and low air conditioning load.  

The word "inverter"  is a jargon often used in electronic engineering to describe an electronic device that can convert AC supply to DC supply in order to control the speed of DC motors that are used in air conditioners.  There are also other kinds of energy-saving air conditioners using other kinds of technologies that might not have found footings in the market.

Basic Consideration

 1.  Whether to install split air conditioners or window unit air conditioners for energy-saving depend much on the design.   Basically,  if both air conditioning units of the same power and type (inverter vs inverter)  should consume the same amount of energy with split units consuming slightly higher power because of the heat losses through the longer refrigeration piping.  On the other hand,  if the window unit is badly designed without proper segregation between cooling and air intakes, it can consume higher energy.  Window units generally are noisier.

2.  Whether to install a multi-system or several single split systems will depend much on the air conditioning usage and the heat load of the cooling space.  Multi-system usually have control valves distributing refrigerants to various rooms; it will consume more energy in empty rooms as these control valves do not always work efficiently to cut off refrigeration flow completely especially after some years of operation.  For example,  if one installed a  system-3 to always cool only 1 bedroom most of the time,  it will not only cost more but also consume more electricity than 3 individual split units.  

Cooling Power Selection Guide 

back to top

 Update 16 December 2021

Straight payback for Additional Cost

Newer air conditioners will be more energy efficient for reasons that there might be some innovative improvements made to the design of the air conditioners.   There might also be better material being used to improve efficiency.  If one has been using the air conditioners for quite some years,  it may be time to consider replacing the air conditioner.  Also,  if one decides which brand to use,   one should examine if it is worth the while to spend the additional sum to get a better and more energy-efficient air conditioner.

For those who are interested to find out more,   here is an example to use.   The attached table works out the cost-effectiveness between 2 popular brands using inverter technology and one other brand using conventional technology.   The table uses the power consumption and the coefficient of Performance given by the manufacturers.   One could use the table as an example to work out a similar table for other types and sizes of air conditioners.

Notes:

1.  The Coefficient of Performance (COP) is a SI unit measurement of energy efficiency used widely in many countries.  It is equivalent to the Energy Efficiency Ratio (EER) in use in the US.  COP is defined in terms of cooling power in watts per watt of electricity input and EER is in Btu/hr per watt of electricity input.  A COP of 1.0 equals EER of 3.4.    This is because  1 W is equal to 3.412 BTU/h or 1 KW is equal to 3,412 BTU/h.

For the convenience of the readers,   the attached Google sheet will help to calculate the payback of the additional cost of selecting a more efficient air conditioner which will be more expensive.  Please place selected air conditioner in column D

Reference:

1)  Mitsubishi Technical Data for MSY-GN10VA

2)  Panasonic Technical Data for CU-PS9UKZ

 

 

Keep Router in Tip Top Condition

19 July 2018
tinyurl :  https://tinyurl.com/y767jldo

Routers are now a common household item in every household.   No one will pay much attention to them until one day,  the internet access started to slow down and the handphones started to experience lines dropping out of service.   This article will describe a simple way how to safely keep router working in tip top condition.   

Why?

Every router has a CPU and the CPU needs computer memory to store the various set ups and procedures for easy access.  Over sometime,  the memory will get clogged up with all the “rubbish information",  making CPU running slower and slower until it stops to work completely.   Usually,  when one make a complain to the Internet Service Provider (ISP),  they will ask everyone to switch off for a minute and switch on the router to restore the service.  This is one quick way to clear and refresh the memory.

How to Clear the memory Automatically?

There are 2 ways to clear the memory.

1.  Set up the router so that the router will perform this task i.e. if one is lucky to own a router that has this function.  If not,  one would have to install software and/or modify the router’s firmware;

2.  Simply install an electronic timer that could switch on and off the router on a regular schedule

This article will describe method 2

What Timer to Use?

1.  7 days Digital  type as 24 hours mechanical type does not have weekly and minute controls.

2.  Mains operated.   Most mains operated digital timers such as the followings are suitable.

How to Set?

 After setting the clock,  set the timer to cut off the router supply for about 1 minute,  preferably in early hours once in a week.

World Cup Video

Sample example of the video player







*Schedule,Scoreboard and other Information

* schedule local time

* CBS Sport World Cup Commentary 

* World Cup Scores and Match Reviews 


* Preview Matches
Computer simulated Preview 


* Last Game Highlights

11:00 PM-  France vs Croatia     Google

How To Seal the water leaking Bath Tubs?

10 July 2018
 
Bath Tubs are one common item found in Condominium and many apartments in Singapore. Very often, they will leak due to bad workmanship in the installation work. Seepage water will often find its way to the neighbor living downstairs, causing damages to their ceiling and ceiling works. This article will describe how one could seal this water leak.
 

Why Water Leaks? 

1. Bath tub has only one outlet at the bottom, the drain outlet. Usually, this drain outlet will not leak unless the water seals are not installed properly or the rubber seal or gasket is old and damaged.

2. Water can also seep through silicone seal or gap between the brick wall and the bath tub.  The traditional way of just using silicone glue to seal the leak would work for a few years;  after which,  it would have to be changed or renewed. 

 

What’s Needed for the Repair? 

 One will need

1. A tube of silicone sealant that cost about SGD$ 3/= and a silicone application gun from any local hardware store as shown

2. Some industrial cleaning fluid like paint thinner  & some duct tapes

3. One length of 20mm x 20mm PVC or aluminum angle trimming also available from the stores

How to Repair? 

1. Water leakage from the drain outlet 

a) First remove the centre screw that hold down the tub basket and remove the basket.

b) Clean up all the debris as much as possible using soap and water. Let to dry or dry it up using tissue or clean cloth.

c) Apply as much silicone sealant to the underside of the tube basket and the rubber gasket, filling up any void if possible.

d) Fit the tub basket into position and tighten the nut. Wipe off any leftover silicone sealant.

 2. Water leakage from the edge of the bath tube 

a) Remove all existing silicone or glue from the wall and the bath tube and clean up using industrial thinner

b) Cut the trimming using a cutter or saw so that it will fit properly all around the bath tub

c) Apply as much silicone sealant to the gap between the wall and bath tube shown and also the underside of the 20mm x 20 mm angle trimmer

 d) Press fit the trimming onto the wall and bath tub using duct tape

The alternative to using PVC or aluminum angle trimming bar is to use 50mm or 65 mm self-adhesive heavy-duty waterproof duct tape.  For this job to be done successfully,   one would need the help of epoxy glue such as Araldite Multipurpose 5 minute Glue and some industrial thinner in the following manner

1.  Clean the edge of the bath tube and the adjacent wall thoroughly,  scraping off any debris from the surface where the duct tape would be, and finally,  cleaning it up the surface using the industrial thinner;

2.  After allowing the surface to dry,  stick the duct tape onto the surface to seal up the gap between the wall and the bathtub;

3.  Prepare enough Araldite glue  by mixing the glue with some industrial thinner together in a small cup until the glue can be made thinner just to allow the glue to flow down the stirring stick or cotton bud;

4.  Slowing using a blade to open a small gap at the upper edge of the duct tape and then use the stirring stick to pick up some glue to "slide" the glue into the gap;  This light glue will make a good and permanent seal,  preventing the water sipping into the duct tap and destroying the original adhesive of the duct tape over time.